How do we resolve the Brexit mess?

[roubaixtuesday]

from the National Institute for Economic research:

• These estimates suggest that Brexit had already reduced UK real GDP relative to the baseline by just under one per cent in 2020 as consumers and businesses adapted their expectations even before the TCA came into force. Our estimates further suggest that three years after the transition period, UK real GDP is some 2-3 per cent lower due to Brexit, compared to a scenario where the United Kingdom retained EU membership. This corresponds to a per capita income loss of approximately £850.
• Our estimates indicate that the negative impact of Brexit gradually escalates, reaching some 5-6 per cent of GDP or about £2,300 per capita by 2035. The reduction in real incomes resulting from the fall in the UK terms of trade associated with changes in trading relations with the European Union and the fall in productivity are the largest contributors to the estimated reduction in real GDP, with each accounting for over 2.5 percentage points.

So just a tad more than 6 Euros.

Pfft. "Facts" from "experts". Who needs 'em?

 

[roubaixtuesday]

What are people referring to when they say that we are better or worse off? The remain campaign predicted a day one apocalypse which didn't happen. We left in 2020 and UK GDP is now 15-20% higher, growth has often exceeeded the rest of Europe and today it is on par with Europe so what are people referring to?

What about the FTSE? Nope, the FTSE is the highest it has ever been. There is an argument around impact on small businesses but if small businesses are on the brink of failure due to Brexit then can anybody explain why Labour have decided to help them out and boost their growth by imposing an NI increase upon them?

The fact is if you are poor then you are neither better off or worse off, everything is exactly the same because you were poor in the EU and you are still poor now we're out. No poor person really benefited from the EU, the economics were good for big companies of course but not always for people. My father in law was made redundant because his automotive job was farmed to cheaper labor in Poland and well surprise he voted to leave the EU.

You only have to ask why were people so easily sold a possible better life after leave? It's because their lives weren't exactly going great whilst in the EU. There are many facets to that, was it the 2008 crash? Was it austerity? Either way the argument that you will be worse off doesn't really hammer home when things are already crap.

So it's actually a folly, being part of the EU is actually mostly irrelevant to most people's lives except for maybe when they decide to grace the continent on their package holiday once a year (if they're lucky). So for those people leaving the EU perhaps means at most that they will be €6 worse off every 3 years....

I think you've very nicely illustrated why the nation is struggling to move on - simply denying the damage done.

Until we can be honest about it, we can't move on.

See post above for the impacts; leaving the EU has already had the impact of one significant recession, and will likely result in double that. Just economically.

 

[blueinsa]

I agree that it is the future that matters and how we can make a success for what we've been landed with.

But I think the issue is we've not had anyone of any prominence from the leave side have the balls to stand up and tell us they and the voters got it wrong. They always blame the politicians and the implementation, not the actual concept and decision. Well, they knew who our politicians were that were going to be responsible for any deal, and now they blame it on them. They can no longer blame the EU politicians for things when they go wrong even though they still try in some areas. They wanted "sovereignty" and have got it apparently. And let's not forget that the UK are still not carrying out many of the checks on imports that we would normally do.

Rejoining is not an option but some sorts of closer links that allows businesses to trade more easily would be a start. After all they're only 22 miles away.

Our government will dictate and so far we have had a Tory one ripped apart over the issue and now a Labour one who are equally scared to death about the subject.

What’s clear is neither will go back in so what’s the future?

I’ve no interest in hearing what anyone other than the PM of the day and their policies have to say on the matter tbh.

 

[The perfect fumble]

The debate should focus on improving our lot and not just be a regurgitation of old arguments.

We are out, ain’t going back in and only the future matters or can be affected.

If you take a wrong turn, marching resolutely on doesn't make it any less wrong and it doesn't make things better, it makes them worse.

What you fail to grasp is poll after poll shows buyers remorse, if there were a referendum tomorrow we would vote to re-join, that is irrefutable and the case gets stronger by the day, as older Brexit voters depart this earthly coil.

Political circumstances, both here and in the EU, dictate that we're not re-joining any time soon, so the rational road to take is to find solutions to shorten the time frame required to change out into in.

It's already happening, it's not rejoiners who need to move on, it's Brexiteers, you had your chance, you blew it, now get out of the way so the next generation of adults can undo the damage you've done

 

[blueinsa]

If you take a wrong turn, marching on resolutely doesn't make it any less wrong and doesn't make things better.

What you fail to grasp is poll after poll shows buyers remorse, if there were a referendum tomorrow we would vote to re-join, that is irrefutable and the case gets stronger by the day, as older Brexit voters depart this earthly coil.

Political circumstances, both here and in the EU, dictate that we're not re-joining any time soon, so the rational road to take is to find solutions to shorten the time frame required to change out into in.

It's already happening, it's not rejoiners who need to move on, it's Brexiteers, you had your chance, you blew it, now get out of the way so the next generation of adults can undo the damage you've done

Tell Starmer that.

He isn’t listening is he and he isn’t a Brexiteer.

See the issue?

 

[gordondaviesmoustache]

What are people referring to when they say that we are better or worse off? The remain campaign predicted a day one apocalypse which didn't happen. We left in 2020 and UK GDP is now 15-20% higher, growth has often exceeeded the rest of Europe and today it is on par with Europe so what are people referring to?

What about the FTSE? Nope, the FTSE is the highest it has ever been. There is an argument around impact on small businesses but if small businesses are on the brink of failure due to Brexit then can anybody explain why Labour have decided to help them out and boost their growth by imposing an NI increase upon them?

The fact is if you are poor then you are neither better off or worse off, everything is exactly the same because you were poor in the EU and you are still poor now we're out. No poor person really benefited from the EU, the economics were good for big companies of course but not always for people. My father in law was made redundant because his automotive job was farmed to cheaper labor in Poland and well surprise he voted to leave the EU.

You only have to ask why were people so easily sold a possible better life after leave? It's because their lives weren't exactly going great whilst in the EU. There are many facets to that, was it the 2008 crash? Was it austerity? Either way the argument that you will be worse off doesn't really hammer home when things are already crap.

So it's actually a folly, being part of the EU is actually mostly irrelevant to most people's lives except for maybe when they decide to grace the continent on their package holiday once a year (if they're lucky). So for those people leaving the EU perhaps means at most that they will be €6 worse off every 3 years....

There were no predictions of ‘apocalypse’ from the Remain campaign. No one predicted the end of days as far as I can recall. There were strident predictions by Osborne that the pound would be severely hit, which he was right about. It immediately lost a huge amount of its value and has never recovered. That’s one way we’re worse off for a start.

UK GDP is barely higher than it was at the start of 2020 at all, so not sure where your 15-20% (conspicuously wide range) figure comes from, but it’s unquestionably wrong. 3% higher in five years would be my guess. There is no way the economy has grown by a fifth since 31st January 2020.

When you say growth has often exceeded the rest of Europe do you mean Europe as a whole or every individual country? And what do you mean by often? This sentence is meaningless without any context, and again, I suspect, framed speciously to bolster a weak argument.

Your argument that because people were poor before and poor afterwards means things are ‘exactly the same’ for them is a ridiculous line of argument. Does that mean if the minimum wage was reduced by 20% things would be exactly the same for people who were on it?

You claim that no poor person really benefitted from membership of the EU is wholly unsubstantiated and plainly wrong. What about all the EU grants that went into poor areas of the UK? You are suggesting that not one single person benefited from all that.

I could go on. Your post is replete with straw man arguments. No point engaging any further.

 

[The perfect fumble]

Tell Starmer that.

He isn’t listening is he and he isn’t a Brexiteer.

See the issue?

Please continue to see it that way, I really mean it.

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

There were no predictions of ‘apocalypse’ from the Remain campaign. No one predicted the end of days as far as I can recall. There were strident predictions by Osborne that the pound would be severely hit, which he was right about. It immediately lost a huge amount of its value and has never recovered. That’s one way we’re worse off for a start.

UK GDP is barely higher than it was at the start of 2020 at all, so not sure where your 15-20% (conspicuously wide range) figure comes from, but it’s unquestionably wrong. 3% higher in five years would be my guess. There is no way the economy has grown by a fifth since 31st January 2020.

When you say growth has often exceeded the rest of Europe do you mean Europe as a whole or every individual country? And what do you mean by often? This sentence is meaningless without any context, and again, I suspect, framed speciously to bolster a weak argument.

Your argument that because people were poor before and poor afterwards means things are ‘exactly the same’ for them is a ridiculous line of argument. Does that mean if the minimum wage was reduced by 20% things would be exactly the same for people who were on it?

You claim that no poor person really benefitted from membership of the EU is wholly unsubstantiated and plainly wrong. What about all the EU grants that went into poor areas of the UK? You are suggesting that not one single person benefited from all that.

I could go on. Your post is replete with straw man arguments. No point engaging any further.

I suppose some of this depends upon perspective. If you have a business that is affected or you are a haulage firm / driver etc then the dire consequences of Brexit are part of your everyday reality. For most of us the whole thing has just been a massive pain in the arse and has distracted successive govts from actually running the country properly.

 

[blueinsa]

Please continue to see it that way, I really mean it.

I’m on record as saying I would vote to rejoin tomorrow if it was offered and that I would vote for any party who had rejoin on their manifesto but it isn’t going to happen so I don’t see the point of a thread like this where you see post after post regurgitating 2016 arguments all over again as it’s simply no longer relevant.

The electorate has every right to ask for the choice again but it’s pretty clear that no party is remotely interested and you would have to ask them why that is?

The issue is it’s as much a vote loser as it is a winner, that’s why. Threads like this, incredibly pro EU imo are simply not reflected across the population because most folk have just moved on. Covid trumped brexit as a fuck up and now we have Russia/Ukraine costing us a small fortune and grabbing the headlines.

I welcome Starmer and Labour working towards closer ties and a new relationship but I’ve no fucking clue what that will look like because they can’t even tell us.

 

[hampshireblue]

What are people referring to when they say that we are better or worse off? The remain campaign predicted a day one apocalypse which didn't happen. We left in 2020 and UK GDP is now 15-20% higher, growth has often exceeeded the rest of Europe and today it is on par with Europe so what are people referring to?

What about the FTSE? Nope, the FTSE is the highest it has ever been. There is an argument around impact on small businesses but if small businesses are on the brink of failure due to Brexit then can anybody explain why Labour have decided to help them out and boost their growth by imposing an NI increase upon them?

The fact is if you are poor then you are neither better off or worse off, everything is exactly the same because you were poor in the EU and you are still poor now we're out. No poor person really benefited from the EU, the economics were good for big companies of course but not always for people. My father in law was made redundant because his automotive job was farmed to cheaper labor in Poland and well surprise he voted to leave the EU.

You only have to ask why were people so easily sold a possible better life after leave? It's because their lives weren't exactly going great whilst in the EU. There are many facets to that, was it the 2008 crash? Was it austerity? Either way the argument that you will be worse off doesn't really hammer home when things are already crap.

So it's actually a folly, being part of the EU is actually mostly irrelevant to most people's lives except for maybe when they decide to grace the continent on their package holiday once a year (if they're lucky). So for those people leaving the EU perhaps means at most that they will be €6 worse off every 3 years....

GDP 15-20% higher? Well actually:

The United Kingdom's economy grew by 0.3 percent in 2023, after a growth rate of 4.8 percent in 2022. 8.6 percent in 2021, and a record 10.3 percent decline in 2020.

What people refer to is the impact that coming out has had. Be it reduced exports, additional paperwork or restructuring a business. Just to give you an example: Easyjet were based in the UK with all aircraft registered here. To allow them to continue to fly intra-EU flights unrestricted, they had to set up a completely new entity in an EU country(Austria), and re-register 140+ aircraft. Not only did this cost them in excess of £10m but it also sucked that out of the UK. Now. I know it's only a small amount in the whole scheme of things, but 1000s of organisations went through similar re-structuring and the associated costs, much of which was then passed onto...us!