How do we resolve the Brexit mess?

[hampshireblue]

You're calling me out on misinformation and yet I've seen multiple accounts of misinformation from hardline remainers where they interchangeably use figures caused by COVID to use as though caused by Brexit! It's nonsensical.

I think a significant source of misinformation actually comes from hardline remainers who are just hoping and praying that Brexit will be a total disaster because they must be proven right. They've already predicted that we'd be seeing a long and forever recession but nearly 10 years post referendum and 5 years post-leaving it still hasn't arrived.

Of course there will be losses but they're largely minimal or unknown and aren't reflected in the economy. I still maintain that Brexit is more about what we gain versus what was lost. The gains are much smaller than the losses and that's a real criticism of Brexit that I gladly accept.

If you consider COVID, the Ukraine war, the subsequent inflation boom and with Brexit too you'd expect the UK economy to be in a terrible state indeed. However, how on earth are we doing better than others in Europe? Why is UK growth at 0.1% whereas Germany is in a deep recession at -0.3%? It makes zero sense.

Similarly, if Brexit is the worst thing to ever happen then why are the OECD predicting us to grow faster than any European G7 country and the Eurozone generally? This paints a clear picture of exactly what I've been saying, the UK is actually doing okay and the Eurozone certainly isn't a fairyland. If anything it points that the Eurozone is in just as much crisis as we are due to Brexit, food for thought.

For everybody else who actually couldn't care less about percentage point changes in the economy, I seriously doubt that they have even noticed that we have left.

Yes, you. Not any one else. The person, you, who claimed Brexit has only cost the average person 6 Euros every 3 years and that UK GDP has risen 20% in 5 years. And still, YOU go to a load of trouble coming up with the above post ignoring your inaccuracies and saying "oh it's OK because others do it". The rest of the post above is so full of holes it just isn't worth taking it apart.

You had the nerve to call me "ridiculously ignorant" whilst proving your figures factually WRONG. I won't sink to that level but I'm sure other readers will form their own opinions.

Good luck with your future endeavours on here because it comes across both publicly and with a couple of PMs sent to me that you're not exactly top of the "he's talking sense" charts.

 

[WRicko]

I don't know, I was looking at the graph below.

At the very worst it hasn't risen as fast as maybe it could have but this isn't really surprising given the same story is told throughout Europe, it's readily explained by other factors.

I just can't see by which measure everything has turned sour as a direct, specific result of Brexit. I see headlines and anecdotes from sources obviously tinged with bias but where is the rest? Tangibly across the country in terms of statistics and figures as a whole I just don't really see the major impact and I know that it hasn't affected me, my friends or family.

Again, I was a remainer, the biggest criticism I have of Brexit is more about what was supposed to be gained and not what was lost because so far I just can't see what we've truly lost but simultaneously we've definitely gained nothing.

There has been a change in the supermarkets in terms of price quality and quantity and a lot of affects in the food and logistics industry which people have noticed if they work there. I have also noticed a big difference in restaurants and hotels in terms of staff / service

 

[inbetween]

Yes, you. Not any one else. The person, you, who claimed Brexit has only cost the average person 6 Euros every 3 years and that UK GDP has risen 20% in 5 years. And still, YOU go to a load of trouble coming up with the above post ignoring your inaccuracies and saying "oh it's OK because others do it". The rest of the post above is so full of holes it just isn't worth taking it apart.

You had the nerve to call me "ridiculously ignorant" whilst proving your figures factually WRONG. I won't sink to that level but I'm sure other readers will form their own opinions.

Good luck with your future endeavours on here because it comes across both publicly and with a couple of PMs sent to me that you're not exactly top of the "he's talking sense" charts.

I'm not claiming to be correct, I'm claiming that Brexit isn't the disaster that it was predicted to be. I probably made an error that the economy is 20% larger purely because I compared two points in time. I never considered currency differences as you previously mentioned so I'll happily admit if its wildly wrong.

But, the sentiment is still though whether the economy is larger or smaller due to Brexit and today the fact is it is larger and it's forecast to grow so again this is where my struggles begin. If Brexit was so terrible and so impactful then growth would evidentally not happen and it certainly wouldn't surpass other European countries!

I don't mean any harm, I just get frustrated reading this constant talking down of the UK due to a decision made nearly 9 years ago. It wasn't the most ideal decision but it has been made and implemented, we're otherwise doing okay and adapting, it's hardly really massively controversial. We certainly face much bigger problems than Brexit.

Ironically I do also work in aviation so whilst I won't claim to be an expert on commercial route planning I certainly know that for what we do we're completely unaffected. Our company posted some of its largest profits ever last year, maybe my experience is unique but I don't know.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

I'm claiming that Brexit isn't the disaster that it was predicted to be

Brexit was predicted to hit GDP by 4% overall by OBR and It's exactly on track to do that.

How are our Brexit forecasting assumptions performing? - Office for Budget Responsibility

Since the June 2016 EU referendum, our forecasts have incorporated a set of assumptions about the economic impact of Brexit on trade, productivity, investment, and migration. In this box, we assessed our current assumptions against the latest evidence.

obr.uk

Other forecasters generally have slightly higher figures than that.

But you're really not interested in facts.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Oh, and a bonus.

Hook, line and sinker: How Brexit betrayed the UK fishing industry

Leaving the EU has cost British fishermen fish, money and jobs.

www.politico.eu

 

[TinFoilHat]

Oh, and a bonus.

Hook, line and sinker: How Brexit betrayed the UK fishing industry

Leaving the EU has cost British fishermen fish, money and jobs.

www.politico.eu

#BrexitBenefits

 

[hampshireblue]

I'm not claiming to be correct, I'm claiming that Brexit isn't the disaster that it was predicted to be. I probably made an error that the economy is 20% larger purely because I compared two points in time. I never considered currency differences as you previously mentioned so I'll happily admit if its wildly wrong.

But, the sentiment is still though whether the economy is larger or smaller due to Brexit and today the fact is it is larger and it's forecast to grow so again this is where my struggles begin. If Brexit was so terrible and so impactful then growth would evidentally not happen and it certainly wouldn't surpass other European countries!

I don't mean any harm, I just get frustrated reading this constant talking down of the UK due to a decision made nearly 9 years ago. It wasn't the most ideal decision but it has been made and implemented, we're otherwise doing okay and adapting, it's hardly really massively controversial. We certainly face much bigger problems than Brexit.

Ironically I do also work in aviation so whilst I won't claim to be an expert on commercial route planning I certainly know that for what we do we're completely unaffected. Our company posted some of its largest profits ever last year, maybe my experience is unique but I don't know.

Then stop quoting nonsense-then others don't have to spend their time proving them to be wrong.

The ONS has suggested the economy is 4% per year smaller.

Tough about getting frustrated. If the ONS figures are correct, and they haven't challenged, then we wouldn't be as far in the shit as we are.

I'm assuming if you're in aviation and the business is completely unaffected, you're probably at BAE or some other defence orientated entity, and certainly within the rest of the sector there have been significant adjustments required.

 

[inbetween]

Brexit was predicted to hit GDP by 4% overall by OBR and It's exactly on track to do that.

How are our Brexit forecasting assumptions performing? - Office for Budget Responsibility

Since the June 2016 EU referendum, our forecasts have incorporated a set of assumptions about the economic impact of Brexit on trade, productivity, investment, and migration. In this box, we assessed our current assumptions against the latest evidence.

obr.uk

Other forecasters generally have slightly higher figures than that.

But you're really not interested in facts.

I've read that before. It talks about exports but doesn't mention that the UK isn't really an export economy, it also doesn't mention that losses will be offset elsewhere. The big impact is on imports. It's really hard to judge that though because like us Europe has just had massive inflation caused by the Ukraine war. So inside or outside of the EU, we're still importing from a high cost stricken continent where big surprise things are costing more to make.

Here it makes a key assumption: we assume that the volume of UK imports and exports will both be 15 per cent lower in the long run than if we had remained in the EU, reducing the overall trade intensity of GDP.

Why should we care about these losses given they're clearly being offset elsewhere? UK growth is forecasted to be higher next year than any G7 European country and the Eurozone generally. If we were seeing 15% losses then how are we managing this? Trade losses are also occurring across Europe, German exports haven't grown for nearly 3 years and they've actually fallen but we'll skip over that....

The offset comes from increased growth in the service economy and growth of services is the dominant economic force in the UK, not exports. If we stayed in the EU and relied more upon traditional intra-European exports then we'd be stuffed. Like I've said countless times, the EU and UK categorically cannot compete with China or the US. Services are our ace in the hole and that's the main reason why we'll survive Brexit but it's still extremely difficult.

Goods trade is what the EU is built around, the intra-European trade of stuff. That was fine 10-15 years ago when everybody in Europe was doing well but now nobody has any money. Recent inflation has wiped out consumer demand and everybody is buying more and more 'stuff' for cheaper from outside the EU. The EU has to change its economy and it can't do that by only looking inwards, it for example disastrously failed on global big tech which grew massively in the US. On other threads they talk of the evils of Musk but where is the major European social media company?

If Trump follows on his promises to put tariffs on Europe then the European economy faces total oblivion. We might be exempted from that given we're not in the EU but if we get drawn into it then forget Brexit because we're absolutely f*cked too. If that happens then indeed we may as well rejoin and get in the sinking lifeboat with them.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

I've read that before.

Perhaps, but you clearly didn't understand it.

You've been shown many reports now into the impact of Brexit. All are consistent and show a significant negative impact, but despite this, you continue to believe otherwise.

This tells us nothing about the impact of Brexit, but it does tell us something about psychology.

 

[mancity2012_eamo]

I can't do with people putting stuff out that is not an opinion but just factually wrong. It's fake facts in open sight and needs to be challenged. If it's not, then potentially there are several 1000 readers who don't comment and don't have the time/inclination to check the quoted figures who take away the "fact" that, for example GDP is upto 20% higher that 5 years ago. It's actually even more important with AI becoming more prevalent. The information coming out is only as good as the information going in.

That’s t’interweb for ye.