How do we resolve the Brexit mess?

[hampshireblue]

You're calling me out on misinformation and yet I've seen multiple accounts of misinformation from hardline remainers where they interchangeably use figures caused by COVID to use as though caused by Brexit! It's nonsensical.

I think a significant source of misinformation actually comes from hardline remainers who are just hoping and praying that Brexit will be a total disaster because they must be proven right. They've already predicted that we'd be seeing a long and forever recession but nearly 10 years post referendum and 5 years post-leaving it still hasn't arrived.

Of course there will be losses but they're largely minimal or unknown and aren't reflected in the economy. I still maintain that Brexit is more about what we gain versus what was lost. The gains are much smaller than the losses and that's a real criticism of Brexit that I gladly accept.

If you consider COVID, the Ukraine war, the subsequent inflation boom and with Brexit too you'd expect the UK economy to be in a terrible state indeed. However, how on earth are we doing better than others in Europe? Why is UK growth at 0.1% whereas Germany is in a deep recession at -0.3%? It makes zero sense.

Similarly, if Brexit is the worst thing to ever happen then why are the OECD predicting us to grow faster than any European G7 country and the Eurozone generally? This paints a clear picture of exactly what I've been saying, the UK is actually doing okay and the Eurozone certainly isn't a fairyland. If anything it points that the Eurozone is in just as much crisis as we are due to Brexit, food for thought.

For everybody else who actually couldn't care less about percentage point changes in the economy, I seriously doubt that they have even noticed that we have left.

Yes, you. Not any one else. The person, you, who claimed Brexit has only cost the average person 6 Euros every 3 years and that UK GDP has risen 20% in 5 years. And still, YOU go to a load of trouble coming up with the above post ignoring your inaccuracies and saying "oh it's OK because others do it". The rest of the post above is so full of holes it just isn't worth taking it apart.

You had the nerve to call me "ridiculously ignorant" whilst proving your figures factually WRONG. I won't sink to that level but I'm sure other readers will form their own opinions.

Good luck with your future endeavours on here because it comes across both publicly and with a couple of PMs sent to me that you're not exactly top of the "he's talking sense" charts.

 

[WRicko]

I don't know, I was looking at the graph below.

At the very worst it hasn't risen as fast as maybe it could have but this isn't really surprising given the same story is told throughout Europe, it's readily explained by other factors.

I just can't see by which measure everything has turned sour as a direct, specific result of Brexit. I see headlines and anecdotes from sources obviously tinged with bias but where is the rest? Tangibly across the country in terms of statistics and figures as a whole I just don't really see the major impact and I know that it hasn't affected me, my friends or family.

Again, I was a remainer, the biggest criticism I have of Brexit is more about what was supposed to be gained and not what was lost because so far I just can't see what we've truly lost but simultaneously we've definitely gained nothing.

There has been a change in the supermarkets in terms of price quality and quantity and a lot of affects in the food and logistics industry which people have noticed if they work there. I have also noticed a big difference in restaurants and hotels in terms of staff / service

 

[inbetween]

Yes, you. Not any one else. The person, you, who claimed Brexit has only cost the average person 6 Euros every 3 years and that UK GDP has risen 20% in 5 years. And still, YOU go to a load of trouble coming up with the above post ignoring your inaccuracies and saying "oh it's OK because others do it". The rest of the post above is so full of holes it just isn't worth taking it apart.

You had the nerve to call me "ridiculously ignorant" whilst proving your figures factually WRONG. I won't sink to that level but I'm sure other readers will form their own opinions.

Good luck with your future endeavours on here because it comes across both publicly and with a couple of PMs sent to me that you're not exactly top of the "he's talking sense" charts.

I'm not claiming to be correct, I'm claiming that Brexit isn't the disaster that it was predicted to be. I probably made an error that the economy is 20% larger purely because I compared two points in time. I never considered currency differences as you previously mentioned so I'll happily admit if its wildly wrong.

But, the sentiment is still though whether the economy is larger or smaller due to Brexit and today the fact is it is larger and it's forecast to grow so again this is where my struggles begin. If Brexit was so terrible and so impactful then growth would evidentally not happen and it certainly wouldn't surpass other European countries!

I don't mean any harm, I just get frustrated reading this constant talking down of the UK due to a decision made nearly 9 years ago. It wasn't the most ideal decision but it has been made and implemented, we're otherwise doing okay and adapting, it's hardly really massively controversial. We certainly face much bigger problems than Brexit.

Ironically I do also work in aviation so whilst I won't claim to be an expert on commercial route planning I certainly know that for what we do we're completely unaffected. Our company posted some of its largest profits ever last year, maybe my experience is unique but I don't know.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

I'm claiming that Brexit isn't the disaster that it was predicted to be

Brexit was predicted to hit GDP by 4% overall by OBR and It's exactly on track to do that.

How are our Brexit forecasting assumptions performing? - Office for Budget Responsibility

Since the June 2016 EU referendum, our forecasts have incorporated a set of assumptions about the economic impact of Brexit on trade, productivity, investment, and migration. In this box, we assessed our current assumptions against the latest evidence.

obr.uk

Other forecasters generally have slightly higher figures than that.

But you're really not interested in facts.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Oh, and a bonus.

Hook, line and sinker: How Brexit betrayed the UK fishing industry

Leaving the EU has cost British fishermen fish, money and jobs.

www.politico.eu

 

[TinFoilHat]

Oh, and a bonus.

Hook, line and sinker: How Brexit betrayed the UK fishing industry

Leaving the EU has cost British fishermen fish, money and jobs.

www.politico.eu

#BrexitBenefits

 

[hampshireblue]

I'm not claiming to be correct, I'm claiming that Brexit isn't the disaster that it was predicted to be. I probably made an error that the economy is 20% larger purely because I compared two points in time. I never considered currency differences as you previously mentioned so I'll happily admit if its wildly wrong.

But, the sentiment is still though whether the economy is larger or smaller due to Brexit and today the fact is it is larger and it's forecast to grow so again this is where my struggles begin. If Brexit was so terrible and so impactful then growth would evidentally not happen and it certainly wouldn't surpass other European countries!

I don't mean any harm, I just get frustrated reading this constant talking down of the UK due to a decision made nearly 9 years ago. It wasn't the most ideal decision but it has been made and implemented, we're otherwise doing okay and adapting, it's hardly really massively controversial. We certainly face much bigger problems than Brexit.

Ironically I do also work in aviation so whilst I won't claim to be an expert on commercial route planning I certainly know that for what we do we're completely unaffected. Our company posted some of its largest profits ever last year, maybe my experience is unique but I don't know.

Then stop quoting nonsense-then others don't have to spend their time proving them to be wrong.

The ONS has suggested the economy is 4% per year smaller.

Tough about getting frustrated. If the ONS figures are correct, and they haven't challenged, then we wouldn't be as far in the shit as we are.

I'm assuming if you're in aviation and the business is completely unaffected, you're probably at BAE or some other defence orientated entity, and certainly within the rest of the sector there have been significant adjustments required.

 

[inbetween]

Brexit was predicted to hit GDP by 4% overall by OBR and It's exactly on track to do that.

How are our Brexit forecasting assumptions performing? - Office for Budget Responsibility

Since the June 2016 EU referendum, our forecasts have incorporated a set of assumptions about the economic impact of Brexit on trade, productivity, investment, and migration. In this box, we assessed our current assumptions against the latest evidence.

obr.uk

Other forecasters generally have slightly higher figures than that.

But you're really not interested in facts.

I've read that before. It talks about exports but doesn't mention that the UK isn't really an export economy, it also doesn't mention that losses will be offset elsewhere. The big impact is on imports. It's really hard to judge that though because like us Europe has just had massive inflation caused by the Ukraine war. So inside or outside of the EU, we're still importing from a high cost stricken continent where big surprise things are costing more to make.

Here it makes a key assumption: we assume that the volume of UK imports and exports will both be 15 per cent lower in the long run than if we had remained in the EU, reducing the overall trade intensity of GDP.

Why should we care about these losses given they're clearly being offset elsewhere? UK growth is forecasted to be higher next year than any G7 European country and the Eurozone generally. If we were seeing 15% losses then how are we managing this? Trade losses are also occurring across Europe, German exports haven't grown for nearly 3 years and they've actually fallen but we'll skip over that....

The offset comes from increased growth in the service economy and growth of services is the dominant economic force in the UK, not exports. If we stayed in the EU and relied more upon traditional intra-European exports then we'd be stuffed. Like I've said countless times, the EU and UK categorically cannot compete with China or the US. Services are our ace in the hole and that's the main reason why we'll survive Brexit but it's still extremely difficult.

Goods trade is what the EU is built around, the intra-European trade of stuff. That was fine 10-15 years ago when everybody in Europe was doing well but now nobody has any money. Recent inflation has wiped out consumer demand and everybody is buying more and more 'stuff' for cheaper from outside the EU. The EU has to change its economy and it can't do that by only looking inwards, it for example disastrously failed on global big tech which grew massively in the US. On other threads they talk of the evils of Musk but where is the major European social media company?

If Trump follows on his promises to put tariffs on Europe then the European economy faces total oblivion. We might be exempted from that given we're not in the EU but if we get drawn into it then forget Brexit because we're absolutely f*cked too. If that happens then indeed we may as well rejoin and get in the sinking lifeboat with them.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

I've read that before.

Perhaps, but you clearly didn't understand it.

You've been shown many reports now into the impact of Brexit. All are consistent and show a significant negative impact, but despite this, you continue to believe otherwise.

This tells us nothing about the impact of Brexit, but it does tell us something about psychology.

 

[mancity2012_eamo]

I can't do with people putting stuff out that is not an opinion but just factually wrong. It's fake facts in open sight and needs to be challenged. If it's not, then potentially there are several 1000 readers who don't comment and don't have the time/inclination to check the quoted figures who take away the "fact" that, for example GDP is upto 20% higher that 5 years ago. It's actually even more important with AI becoming more prevalent. The information coming out is only as good as the information going in.

That’s t’interweb for ye.

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

First off as I have stated previously, im not disputing that leaving the EU has damaged the UK economy. But I question how much damage has been done, as unlike most on here I think we have done OK since we left, when compared to other countries and that's despite imo, having a pretty inept Conservative government in charge for the majority of that time. I know most of you don't want to hear comparisons with other countries, so please just skip the rest of my post if that's the case.

I did a little research using Statistica on the GDP growth of the G7 mature economies. Since Brexit the UK economy has grown 14.84% (2021 to 2024 inclusive) . France 11.67%, Germany 4.79%, Italy 14.96%, Japan 5.87 %, Canada 11.7% and the USA 14.42%
The figures above as far as I can see are recognised fact and independent. By all means check them yourselves, I just googled GPD of G7 Statistica came up with a table and I added up the last four years of each country. Sure parts of the EU are doing much better, but there are reasons for that I guess and its primarily because they are not considered developed economies. The UK is still the 6th largest economy in the world , after The US, China, Japan, Germany and India.

The ONS forecast of 4% loss of growth because of brexit is just that, a best estimate forecast, but we all know how bad forecasts are. The ONS are not the best but IMO better than the BOE who regularly get their forecasts wildly wrong. If we assume it's correct are we saying our growth would be nearly 19% the last four years? I'm finding that pretty hard to believe. Sure the ONS forecast might take into account the run up to leaving . So it's not possibly all 4% loss of GDP since 2020. But even so aside from Italy, unless im missing something , to me it looks as if we have been doing OK ?

Now we have a chance to improve even further with a new Government, fingers crossed they can develop closer ties with the EU and get back little bit of lost growth whatever it is?

Anyway, I'm a glass half full person and IMO the UK is still a great place to live and work in, sure things could be improved and hopefully they will under the new Government, we all want that surely?

I just put this out there for thought that's all. If I'm wrong on the above numbers then please point out where, I didn't pick them because they were favourable they were the first that came up and seem fair and independent.

 

[west didsblue]

First off as I have stated previously, im not disputing that leaving the EU has damaged the UK economy. But I question how much damage has been done, as unlike most on here I think we have done OK since we left, when compared to other countries and that's despite imo, having a pretty inept Conservative government in charge for the majority of that time. I know most of you don't want to hear comparisons with other countries, so please just skip the rest of my post if that's the case.

I did a little research using Statistica on the GDP growth of the G7 mature economies. Since Brexit the UK economy has grown 14.84% (2021 to 2024 inclusive) . France 11.67%, Germany 4.79%, Italy 14.96%, Japan 5.87 %, Canada 11.7% and the USA 14.42%
The figures above as far as I can see are recognised fact and independent. By all means check them yourselves, I just googled GPD of G7 Statistica came up with a table and I added up the last four years of each country. Sure parts of the EU are doing much better, but there are reasons for that I guess and its primarily because they are not considered developed economies. The UK is still the 6th largest economy in the world , after The US, China, Japan, Germany and India.

The ONS forecast of 4% loss of growth because of brexit is just that, a best estimate forecast, but we all know how bad forecasts are. The ONS are not the best but IMO better than the BOE who regularly get their forecasts wildly wrong. If we assume it's correct are we saying our growth would be nearly 19% the last four years? I'm finding that pretty hard to believe. Sure the ONS forecast might take into account the run up to leaving . So it's not possibly all 4% loss of GDP since 2020. But even so aside from Italy, unless im missing something , to me it looks as if we have been doing OK ?

Now we have a chance to improve even further with a new Government, fingers crossed they can develop closer ties with the EU and get back little bit of lost growth whatever it is?

Anyway, I'm a glass half full person and IMO the UK is still a great place to live and work in, sure things could be improved and hopefully they will under the new Government, we all want that surely?

I just put this out there for thought that's all. If I'm wrong on the above numbers then please point out where, I didn't pick them because they were favourable they were the first that came up and seem fair and independent.

A GDP growth figure starting in 2021 is bound to be favourable for the UK due to the impact of COVID being greater than most other economies due to mismanagement by the buffoon Johnson thereby meaning the starting point was a lot lower.
A fairer comparison would be from 2019 to now as it levels the playing field more.
Other factors to take into account are the fact that many EU countries, particularly Germany, were much more dependent on Russian gas to fuel their economies so the Ukraine war has had a disproportionately large impact on them.
Agree that the UK is still a great place to live and work for most people. We have our problems but so does everybody.

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

A GDP growth figure starting in 2021 is bound to be favourable for the UK due to the impact of COVID being greater than most other economies due to mismanagement by the buffoon Johnson thereby meaning the starting point was a lot lower.
A fairer comparison would be from 2019 to now as it levels the playing field more.
Other factors to take into account are the fact that many EU countries, particularly Germany, were much more dependent on Russian gas to fuel their economies so the Ukraine war has had a disproportionately large impact on them.
Agree that the UK is still a great place to live and work for most people. We have our problems but so does everybody.

I chose 2020 as that was when we left, just looked at the numbers in total from 2019 as you suggest and tbh it doesn't make much difference , the figures are UK 6.16%, Italy 6.52%, France 6.17%, Germany 1.69 %, Japan 2.2%, Canada 8.57% and the US 16.65% . From that you can see that the US has powered on during covid. Germany was struggling way before Russian Gas problems. France was similar to the UK before 2020 but has done really poorly since. Italy similar to the UK. So where does this 4% come in. Are we really saying we would have had growth of 10.16% second only to the US. I'm not convinced myself. Even so those numbers are nowhere near as bad as some are making out on here.

Thanks for responding by the way.

 

[jonmcity]

Its a mess for my free movement to Spain, to get out of this shit whole.

 

[inbetween]

A GDP growth figure starting in 2021 is bound to be favourable for the UK due to the impact of COVID being greater than most other economies due to mismanagement by the buffoon Johnson thereby meaning the starting point was a lot lower.
A fairer comparison would be from 2019 to now as it levels the playing field more.
Other factors to take into account are the fact that many EU countries, particularly Germany, were much more dependent on Russian gas to fuel their economies so the Ukraine war has had a disproportionately large impact on them.
Agree that the UK is still a great place to live and work for most people. We have our problems but so does everybody.

This largely misses the point of where we are now though. Growth in 2020 was -10.3% which okay is terrible. However, in 2021 it was +8.6%, 2022 it was +4.8%. So what was lost was mostly recovered by around 2022. The economy today is now the largest that it has ever been and it will apparently continue to grow so there is no real problem there. Unlike the UK many European countries were already smaller prior to COVID, Spain and Italy are still smaller than pre-2008.

The UK economic mismanagement is ongoing because it goes beyond GDP and that will continue under Labour. Other countries are reducing their debt for example but we aren't. Labour ultimately needs to find £120bn per year to plug the deficit without spending a single extra penny, and pigs will fly. Either way, we spend £90bn per year on debt interest, far more than we spend on defence. That's where the benefits of growth are being drained away.

It's absolutely incredible though that we have the 2nd largest economy in Europe, we're growing, and whilst we do have a huge debt burden still not a single penny really goes to help people. Manchester just for example is the 3rd largest UK city but it is 15x smaller economically than London. The divide is massive and that disparity isn't really seen anywhere else in Europe as centres have their own strengths. Germany has no real focal city, every city is different.

And when people drone on here about imports/exports, that's why actually it doesn't matter that much. The truth is all that truly matters in the coldest of GDP terms is the growth of the service/finance industry in London. That's why we'll probably still post growth this year despite 'Brexit'. And what is Parliament doing about this divide? I think this is the crux of why people voted to leave up here, they just had no real livelihoods inside or outside of the EU.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

And when people drone on here about imports/exports, that's why actually it doesn't matter that much.

Yeah, facts. So dull. Who needs 'em?

 

[hampshireblue]

First off as I have stated previously, im not disputing that leaving the EU has damaged the UK economy. But I question how much damage has been done, as unlike most on here I think we have done OK since we left, when compared to other countries and that's despite imo, having a pretty inept Conservative government in charge for the majority of that time. I know most of you don't want to hear comparisons with other countries, so please just skip the rest of my post if that's the case.

I did a little research using Statistica on the GDP growth of the G7 mature economies. Since Brexit the UK economy has grown 14.84% (2021 to 2024 inclusive) . France 11.67%, Germany 4.79%, Italy 14.96%, Japan 5.87 %, Canada 11.7% and the USA 14.42%
The figures above as far as I can see are recognised fact and independent. By all means check them yourselves, I just googled GPD of G7 Statistica came up with a table and I added up the last four years of each country. Sure parts of the EU are doing much better, but there are reasons for that I guess and its primarily because they are not considered developed economies. The UK is still the 6th largest economy in the world , after The US, China, Japan, Germany and India.

The ONS forecast of 4% loss of growth because of brexit is just that, a best estimate forecast, but we all know how bad forecasts are. The ONS are not the best but IMO better than the BOE who regularly get their forecasts wildly wrong. If we assume it's correct are we saying our growth would be nearly 19% the last four years? I'm finding that pretty hard to believe. Sure the ONS forecast might take into account the run up to leaving . So it's not possibly all 4% loss of GDP since 2020. But even so aside from Italy, unless im missing something , to me it looks as if we have been doing OK ?

Now we have a chance to improve even further with a new Government, fingers crossed they can develop closer ties with the EU and get back little bit of lost growth whatever it is?

Anyway, I'm a glass half full person and IMO the UK is still a great place to live and work in, sure things could be improved and hopefully they will under the new Government, we all want that surely?

I just put this out there for thought that's all. If I'm wrong on the above numbers then please point out where, I didn't pick them because they were favourable they were the first that came up and seem fair and independent.

It may be worth reading the posts on this earlier this week where this was discussed.

" The United Kingdom's economy grew by 0.4 percent in 2023, after a growth rate of 4.8 percent in 2022. 8.6 percent in 2021, and a record 10.3 percent decline in 2020."

As stated earlier the only "normal year " was 2023 as all of the other 3 referred to were in some way affected by C19 and even 2023 was partly affected as we still had C19 restrictions in the early part of 2022.

The ONS "forecast" becomes more marure as time goes by and there is little challenge that a 4% drop is the effect of Brexit. The UK exported £172bn to the EU in 2019. That dropped to £153bn in 2020 and is still at that level in 2023.

Comparison with other countries is also questionable as a % rise or drop depends very much on the starting figure. It is true that Europe is also in the doldrums economically but the effect of Ukraine had been much greater as their reliance on Russia for gas was greater than it was for us.

I too, want closer ties to improve the trade situation But it is worth bearing in mind the UK hasn't even started many of the checks on imports from the EU.

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

It may be worth reading the posts on this earlier this week where this was discussed.

" The United Kingdom's economy grew by 0.4 percent in 2023, after a growth rate of 4.8 percent in 2022. 8.6 percent in 2021, and a record 10.3 percent decline in 2020."

As stated earlier the only "normal year " was 2023 as all of the other 3 referred to were in some way affected by C19 and even 2023 was partly affected as we still had C19 restrictions in the early part of 2022.

The ONS "forecast" becomes more marure as time goes by and there is little challenge that a 4% drop is the effect of Brexit. The UK exported £172bn to the EU in 2019. That dropped to £153bn in 2020 and is still at that level in 2023.

Comparison with other countries is also questionable as a % rise or drop depends very much on the starting figure. It is true that Europe is also in the doldrums economically but the effect of Ukraine had been much greater as their reliance on Russia for gas was greater than it was for us.

I too, want closer ties to improve the trade situation But it is worth bearing in mind the UK hasn't even started many of the checks on imports from the EU.

First off thank you for replying.

Can I ask how is the comparison questionable? I provided timescales from the last four years and then the last six years. We are talking about the affects of Brexit, so it doesn't seem relevant to go back much further to me? What start date would you prefer and why?

The UK GDP % growth figures I used are as follows 2019 1.62%, 2020 -10.3%, 2021 8.58% , 2022 4.84%, 2023 0.34% and 2024 1.08%. So it looks as if we are talking about the same figures.

Ukraine and the Russian gas supply only came into play the last two years, as you know.

C19 affected all countries and by most accounts, and certainly the posters on here, Johnsons government didn't handle it as well as other countries, so to use that as a reason to discount the comparison actually makes less sense does it not? What it surely actually shows is, that despite government incompetence at the time and Brexit the UK did better than one would expect.

I simply find it unrealistic that we would have had growth 4% higher than France and Italy since 2019 if we would have stayed in the EU? Do you firmly believe we would have had growth of 4% greater than Italy and France since 2019. Lets forget Germany as we would be 8.5% ahead of them for growth since 2019 if we accept the ONS forecast.

Your last point talks about future checks being brought in, so it is irrelevant to the ONS forecast which talks about the cost to the UK economy to date does it not?

Have the cumulative GDP growth figures and comparisons not even made you question the ONS forecasts ? If they haven't Im sorry but I find that quite hard to believe?

When you have held such firm beliefs for such a long period of time sometimes it is hard to accept they may be wrong?

I would be interested to hear the thoughts of others who have championed the ONS forecasts?

 

[hampshireblue]

First off thank you for replying.

Can i ask how is the comparison questionable? I provided timescales from the last four years and then the last six years. We are talking about the results of Brexit, so it doesn't seem relevant to go back much further to me? What start date would you prefer and why?

The UK GDP % growth figures I used are as follows 2019 1.62%, 2020 -10.3%, 2021 8.58% , 2022 4.84%, 2023 0.34% and 2024 1.08%. So it looks as if we are talking about the same figures.

Ukraine and the Russian gas supply only came into play the last two years, as you know.

C19 affected all countries and by most accounts, and certainly the posters on here, Johnsons government didn't handle it as well as other countries, so to use that as a reason to discount the comparison actually makes less sense does it not? What it surely actually shows is, that despite government incompetence at the time and Brexit the UK did better than one would expect.

I simply find it unrealistic that we would have had growth 4% higher than France and Italy since 2019 if we would have stayed in the EU? Do you firmly believe we would have had growth of 4% greater than Italy and France since 2019. Lets forget Germany as we would be 8.5% ahead of them for growth since 2019 if we accept the ONS forecast.

You last point talks about the future checks being brought in, so it irrelevant to the ONS forecast which talks about the cost to the UK economy today does it not?

Have the cumulative GDP growth figures and comparisons not even made you question the ONS forecasts ? If they haven't Im sorry but I find that quite hard to believe?

When you have held such firm beliefs for such a long period of time sometimes it is hard to accept they may be wrong?

I would be interested to hear the thoughts of others who have championed the ONS forecasts?

The previous debate talked about the period involved and I thought I covered this in my reply. The period 2020-2022 and in some part 2023 are all skewed because of C19. Eve stripping out 2020 & 2021, the worst years of C19, 4.84+0.34+1.08 ( the 2024 figure yet to confirmed) only gives a figure of 6.26%- a far cry from your initial 14.84%

"I simply find it unrealistic that we would have had growth 4% higher than France and Italy since 2019 if we would have stayed in the EU? Do you firmly believe we would have had growth of 4% greater than Italy and France since 2019"

That's not what the ONS is saying. It is saying the UK economy is 4% smaller than it would have been had we stayed in. Nothing to do with the performance of any other country or indeed the EU as a whole, just the UK in isolation. This may be because of additional costs that companies have incurred( see my Easyjet example last week where the UK lost revenue and Austria gained) the small cheese company that opened an operation in the EU to continue to operate.Multiply this across most industries and a figure can be arrived at.

I've just found the chart below on the commons library website. Maybe it's you who needs to look at your "firm beliefs"? or are you really questioning the figures?

GDP growth in recent years​

UK GDP in Q3 2024 was 3.0% above its pre-pandemic level of Q4 2019. This compares with Eurozone GDP being 4.6% higher, with GDP in Germany only 0.1% higher. The US had the highest GDP growth among G7 economies over this period at 11.5%.

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

The previous debate talked about the period involved and I thought I covered this in my reply. The period 2020-2022 and in some part 2023 are all skewed because of C19. Eve stripping out 2020 & 2021, the worst years of C19, 4.84+0.34+1.08 ( the 2024 figure yet to confirmed) only gives a figure of 6.26%- a far cry from your initial 14.84%

"I simply find it unrealistic that we would have had growth 4% higher than France and Italy since 2019 if we would have stayed in the EU? Do you firmly believe we would have had growth of 4% greater than Italy and France since 2019"

That's not what the ONS is saying. It is saying the UK economy is 4% smaller than it would have been had we stayed in. Nothing to do with the performance of any other country or indeed the EU as a whole, just the UK in isolation. This may be because of additional costs that companies have incurred( see my Easyjet example last week where the UK lost revenue and Austria gained) the small cheese company that opened an operation in the EU to continue to operate.Multiply this across most industries and a figure can be arrived at.

I've just found the chart below on the commons library website. Maybe it's you who needs to look at your "firm beliefs"? or are you really questioning the figures?

GDP growth in recent years​

UK GDP in Q3 2024 was 3.0% above its pre-pandemic level of Q4 2019. This compares with Eurozone GDP being 4.6% higher, with GDP in Germany only 0.1% higher. The US had the highest GDP growth among G7 economies over this period at 11.5%.

The growth of 14.84% from 2021 to 2024 inclusive is correct. As I pointed out they are the same as the numbers you quoted me this morning with an assumption for 2024! and include the covid bounce back in 2021. The cumulative growth from the start of 2019 for the UK is 6.16% as I stated.

The table you quoted above is from the end of 2019. My figures included 2019. Statistica gets its data from the UK government. Please check it out if you want.

Anyway , I feel I have made my point and you and others on here may be starting to question the narrative you have convinced yourselves of the past few years.

Have a good day.