How many league goals will Haaland score this season?

Here's a chart I've updated, inspired by a similar one I saw on Reddit a few months ago.

Haaland is currently at 20 goals, based on a regression line he's on to beat Salah's record at around the 24th game of the season (9 games from now). If he carries this trend through to the end of the season he'll be at around 52 goals.

He could not play until March (11 games from now) and he would still be ahead of Salah's record pace.

If you factor in that he hasn't been on the pitch for all of our 15 games and base it on minutes played then it just gets even more ridiculous.

HaalandGoalTally.png
 
Here's a chart I've updated, inspired by a similar one I saw on Reddit a few months ago.

Haaland is currently at 20 goals, based on a regression line he's on to beat Salah's record at around the 24th game of the season (9 games from now). If he carries this trend through to the end of the season he'll be at around 52 goals.

He could not play until March (11 games from now) and he would still be ahead of Salah's record pace.

If you factor in that he hasn't been on the pitch for all of our 15 games and base it on minutes played then it just gets even more ridiculous.

View attachment 64619

Imagine if he gets 50 goals, it would be absolutely insane. I think he's more likely to end up around 40 as we've not played a lot of the stronger teams yet.
 
Imagine if he gets 50 goals, it would be absolutely insane. I think he's more likely to end up around 40 as we've not played a lot of the stronger teams yet.
You could argue he'll get a bit more space against the top sides and more chances on the counter attack.
 
Imagine if he gets 50 goals, it would be absolutely insane. I think he's more likely to end up around 40 as we've not played a lot of the stronger teams yet.

I'd agree in principle that he's unlikely to maintain this kind of average - and originally I thought so based on the same logic you've laid out. But when you look at his games against the highest ranked teams we've played so far this season (top 8 or so):
Newcastle - 1 goal
United - 3 goals
Liverpool - 0 goals
Brighton - 2 goals

That's 6 in 4 games - which is better than his average against lesser opposition (14 in 11).

And besides, if he did get anything like 40, when you consider the record for a 38-game season has increased by 1 goal in 27 years, for Haaland to come along and smash it by that kind of margin is outrageous.
 

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