How many trophies will we win?

cptaidan88 said:
Just been budgeting for the next couple of months, and I think winning the Quad (or even losing in the finals) will cost me £2.5k-£3k between now and the end of the season, which I will pay but definitely can't afford. The reality sinks in that there are too many games in not enough time, and the majority are away from home.

It will take its toll on the players so I can't see it happening, but hope we give it a good go.
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Things will be a lot clear perhaps in 10 days time If we win the first three games after the break and the Dippers drop points. We will be in CF and clear favourites for the League.

Europe will be a bridge to far for us unless we drop everything else and concentrate on it. This I suggest would be unwise. The Cup is the easiest to achieve as if we turn up against any of the remaining teams we will win 9 times out of ten. The league may get compromised by Europe but then again the same applies to the Dippers as you would expect them to account for Porto and go on to play Barca most likely. I like Maths but I would leave the probability game to one side and state the following. If we get the injured players back and somehow avoid any more key lay offs I think we will win the the FA Cup and League. In Europe I think we will come up short and this perhaps might be against Spurs. Such an event somewhat perversely may actually help us win the domestic competitions.
 
Wafty Cranker said:
I don't think anyone on here would dispute we're favourites for the FA Cup. What I was trying to get at is you have us at 46%, which means you must have the winner to come from Brighton, Watford or Wolves at 54%. So you think it is more likely that we don't win the FA Cup, than that we win it! Have some faith Marvin!

13% for the CL just makes no sense to me, and I think your numbers for the % of the rest of the teams won't add up to anywhere near 100%.

Overall, I have as at just under 12% for the quadruple vs your 3-4%. Oh well, it be boring if we all agreed I suppose!
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OK. I am on bus at moment. When I have time I'll post my entire CL prediction and you'll see it hangs together.
 
To visualise the probabilities I posted, rounding to the nearest whole numbers, if we were to finish our season from the position we find ourselves in now 20 times, we can expect to win no more trophies on 3 occasions, to win a double on 9 occasions to win a treble on 7 occasions and to win the elusive quadruple on 1 occasion.
 
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Tricky_Trev said:
To visualise the probabilities I posted, rounding to the nearest whole numbers, if we were to finish our season from the position we find ourselves in now 20 times, we can expect to win no more trophies on 3 ocassions, to win a double on 9 ocassions, to win a treble on 7 ocassions and to win the elusive quadruple on 1 ocassion.
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And how many times would you expect the grammar police to pick you up on your spelling of occasions?


Sorry :-(
 
marl0we said:
For what it's worth, a few stats sites have modelled City's likelihood of winning the PL and CL.

538 give us 66% chance of winning the league and 35% chance of winning the CL. That's ~23% chance of both.

Euro Club Index give us ~59% chance of winning the league and ~20% chance of winning the CL. That's ~11.5% chance of both.

Neither of them give a prediction for the FA Cup.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/
https://www.euroclubindex.com/league-odds/
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Really? 538 have us at almost 80% to beat Juve. I think that is quite remarkable and total bullshit. They also have spurs at around evens (well 45%) to beat Juve. Rather optimistic I would have thought.
 
I think everyone expecting us to play juve in the semi's may be in for a shock first thing first let's get through the spurs game but ajax won't be as easy as people think for juve playing in such an easy league has its downside just look at psg and this is a team that had lost to the rags at home and basel away as they did to athletico in the last round believe me IF it us to play them and we go over there with a 2 goal lead we go through.
 
NZBlue said:
Really? 538 have us at almost 80% to beat Juve. I think that is quite remarkable and total bullshit. They also have spurs at around evens (well 45%) to beat Juve. Rather optimistic I would have thought.
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They don't. 538 think we have an 80% chance of beating Spurs over two legs and reaching the SF. They can't predict the result of playing Juve since neither City nor Juve have reached the SF. They do estimate the probabilities of reaching each stage including winning the final at 35% (without yet knowing the opposition and running through all the possible outcomes)
 
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