If the rot continues what happens ?

[jrb]

We’ll find out on Sunday.

 

[youngbob]

Pulling this out from another thread. Put a bit of time into doing some research this afternoon and painted an interesting picture for myself.

Something we have to remember is that this current setback - major as it feels - won't last long. We're now so big, so well-run, and so successful, that we'll simply never fuck off from the top table for long ever again. If Pep or the players aren't pulling their weight, we simply change things in the summer and spend big bucks to get things right again. Should the 130 charges hit and slam us down the divisions, our sheer size will bring us back up inside 10 years, possibly sooner.

We simply have too much money now, and too big a following, for us to ever be relegated via normal means. Like it or not, that's just the way football is now - solid money keeps you safe. So long as you have a semi-decent structure and a lot of cash, it's basically impossible to fall on genuinely hard times. Whether through will, determination, cash, or other means, the turds that would sink in any other era of football just don't get fully flushed anymore.

Between the Second World War and the early 1980s, First Division title winners would expect to experience burnout the following season, or they wouldn't be able to keep a quality team and staff together for a 5 or 10-year stretch like you can now. It was just expected that great teams would have their day in the sun and then go back to mid-table (or lower) while another team got a turn at creating a few special memories for themselves.

Wolves won the First Divison in 1958 and 1959 and won the FA Cup in 1960, were almost relegated in 1962 and were finally relegated in 1965. Burnley won the First Division in 1960, collapsed to 9th by 1964 and were relegated in 1971 after years of finishing 12th-14th. West Brom won the League Cup in 1966 and the FA Cup in 1968, relegated in 1973. Derby County were First Division champions in 1972 and 1975, but were relegated in 1980.

You could even look at City: First Division winners in 1968, FA Cup in 1969, Cup Winners Cup in 1970, finished 11th in 1971. Then won the League Cup in 1976 and went for the title in 1977 - relegated in 1983. And United: won the first Division in 1967 and the European Cup in 1968, but were relegated in 1974. Leeds won everything in sight between 1968 and 1974 but were in Division Two by 1982.

Nottm Forest - won everything in sight between 1977 and 1980 but were a mid-table side once again by the mid-1980s, had a revival at the end of the 1980s but went from winning two consecutive League Cups in 1989 and 1990 to relegation in 1993. Aston Villa had a great period of success between 1972 and 1982 but were relegated in 1987. English football history is a story of constant rise and fall - that's why our pyramid system was the best.

The Premier League changed all that.

Look at what's happened to Chelsea, Arsenal, United, and Liverpool since 1992. They've all had dry spells and "banter eras" that were written about at the time as though they were catastrophes, but the lowest any of them have ever finished in the Premier League era is 10th (Chelsea in 2016). The lowest that any of Arsenal, United, and Liverpool have finished since 1992 is 8th - all of them have always finished between 1st-8th since the formation of the Premier League.

Since their last Premier League title in 2004, Arsenal have still won 5x FA Cups and 6x Comm Shields, have reached 3x League Cup finals and 1x Europa League final, and have been runners-up in the Premier League three times. Since their last title in 2013, United have won 2x FA Cups, 2x League Cups, 2x Comm Shields, 1x Europa League, and have been Premier League runners up twice. Hardly anything to shake a stick at.

And in the 30 years Liverpool went without a Premier League title, they still won 4x FA Cups, 6x League Cups, 1x UEFA Cup, 2x European Cups, 3x Super Cups/Club World Cups, 1x Comm Shield, were FA Cup runners-up twice, League Cup runners-up twice, European Cup runners-up three times, and Europa League runners-up once. So many legends and happy times have passed through the doors at the Emirates, Old Trafford, and Anfield in "bad times".

You can look across the continent as well, at Barcelona, AC Milan and Inter Milan, Juventus, Atletico Madrid, etc. European superpowers who dominated the footballing landscape 2000s and 2010s (or just the 2010s in Atleti's case). All have been hit with lean periods and financial scandals, etc. but they were all just too big to be flushed away or overtaken by the teams below them. And now they're all back at the very top table again.

I mean, fuck, look at City again. Yes, we were mediocre for a generation and sank all the way to the third tier. But, because we were Manchester City, one of biggest clubs in England, we were able to afford the players and staff who carried us all the way back to the top flight and kept us there within three years. It even gets said on Sky Sports after the 5-2 win at Stoke: "Twice league champions, FA Cup winners four times, League Cup winners twice, European Cup Winners Cup winners... are going down into Division Two."

It was a massive, massive shock, even in 1998, that a club our size could fall so far - but within two years we were back in the top flight and within 10 years we were a solid mid-table PL team again. Since the takeover, what we are now is so much bigger, run so much better, and so much more powerful that the "bad times" won't come for another generation, maybe longer. We'll definitely fall from the very, very top one day soon, but it'll never be that far.

The only team in recent years who've done an equivalent of a 60s, 70s-style rise and fall is Leicester. Premier League winners in 2016 and FA Cup winners in 2021, relegated in 2023. But even they only spent one year slapping second tier teams silly before getting right back into the big time. And the only team to really collapse from winners to (virtual) nobodies in a generation is Leeds, and that was enforced by serious financial mismanagement - and maybe Wigan or Portsmouth at a push, but again, serious financial negligence caused that.

If I was going to predict how things will look over the next decade (providing the 130 charges aren't proved), I think once Pep goes in 2027 there will be a downturn. But I think that downturn is going to look a lot better viewed as part of the bigger picture because what we've been building over the last 15 years. If all we have to show for ourselves between 2027 and 2037 is finishing 2nd-8th and winning the odd cup, what's the harm in that?

And see below.

Looked a little further into this. Decided to test my theory a bit more and see how many First Division/Premier League title winners (in the post-WW2 era) were relegated from the top flight within 10 years of lifting the trophy.

Of the First Division winners between 1950 and 1959, three teams (Portsmouth, Wolves, and Chelsea) were all relegated from the First Division within 10 years of winning the title.

Between 1960 and 1969, two teams (Ipswich, Manchester United) were relegated within 10 years of winning the First Division title. One club (Burnley) was relegated 11 years afterwards

From 1970 to 1979, two teams (Derby County, Leeds United) were relegated within 10 years of winning the First Division title. One club (Nottm Forest) were relegated 15 years afterwards.

Between 1980 and 1989, one team (Aston Villa) were relegated within 10 years of winning the First Division title.

From 1990 to 1999, one team (Blackburn Rovers) were relegated within 10 years of winning the Premier League title. One team (Leeds United) were relegated 12 years after winning the First Division title.

Between 2000 and 2009, no teams were relegated within 10 years of winning the Premier League title. In fact, no team to win the Premier League in the 2000s has ever finished below 10th.

Between 2010 and 2019, one team (Leicester) has been relegated within 10 years of winning the Premier League title. No other 2010s Premier League champion has finished below 10th in the table.

 

[city2]

Does the club already know about the outcome of the charges and the players have therefore have thrown the towel in, are they thinking what’s the point of winning if we are going to face a points deduction or even relegation just a thought. It’s like when companies know they are closing down the staff say fuck it.

 

[Bluemoonadam]

If we can’t manage to finish 4th, I’d rather continue to be wank and finish 7th or lower (but obviously above 18th!) so we finish outside the Europa League/Europa Conference qualification places.

Can’t be arsed with Sunday PL games next season because we’re in those second and third rate comps.

If we don't get top 4 it'll be quite a set back

 

[simmo]

The rejuvenation starts on Sunday. Take one game at time as they say.

 

[chaddblue]

Does the club already know about the outcome of the charges and the players have therefore have thrown the towel in, are they thinking what’s the point of winning if we are going to face a points deduction or even relegation just a thought. It’s like when companies know they are closing down the staff say fuck it.

If the players knew.. it would be public knowledge by now

 

[urban genie]

If we don't get top 4 it'll be quite a set back

not really, hapoens to all teams with decent manager and squads at some point, finishing out of the top 4 a season won't damage any club with good established conditions for success

it means the league is a lot healthier than the uncompetative ones in spain/france etc

 

[Roachy]

not really, hapoens to all teams with decent manager and squads at some point, finishing out of the top 4 a season won't damage any club with good established conditions for success

it means the league is a lot healthier than the uncompetative ones in spain/france etc

All the top clubs want to be in CL, us included. Let's not kid ourselves, not qualifying would be very poor.

 

[Stuuuuuu]

Quite obvious what he's up to.

What is he up to?

 

[Gray]

All the top clubs want to be in CL, us included. Let's not kid ourselves, not qualifying would be very poor.

For the club yes.

Personally not at all bothered, just want to see an improvement out on the pitch. The drop off this season has been seismic.

I hope the papers are right and we are going to address the problem in January and in the Summer.

I have already written off this season.

 

[urban genie]

All the top clubs want to be in CL, us included. Let's not kid ourselves, not qualifying would be very poor.

not kidding anything, we have a competative league that has been strengthemignthw last few years and after the run of seasons we have had a drop off season is part of the cycle, we are probably fortunate it has also coincided with our worst season for injuries, so will more likely be a blip more than a trend.

All I need from city is to try to do their best, top 4, trophies etc are not a right or expectation, and I have seen effort from the team each game mixed with silly mistakes (which is uncommon), so on our present form finishing 5th would not be a disaster.

we won't though, we will regroup in Jan and I expect top 2 finish and a cup

 

[BlueMoonz1977]

It's form, though. We need to stop being so reactive, especially towards a group of players and manager who have given us so much.

If we have a shit season, so be it. They've plenty credit in the bank and a few transfer windows to re-build. We can not become entitled, it's a bad look.

Perfectly put

 

[Roachy]

not kidding anything, we have a competative league that has been strengthemignthw last few years and after the run of seasons we have had a drop off season is part of the cycle, we are probably fortunate it has also coincided with our worst season for injuries, so will more likely be a blip more than a trend.

All I need from city is to try to do their best, top 4, trophies etc are not a right or expectation, and I have seen effort from the team each game mixed with silly mistakes (which is uncommon), so on our present form finishing 5th would not be a disaster.

we won't though, we will regroup in Jan and I expect top 2 finish and a cup

Your thoughts echo mine. I hope we get our act together starting Sun, and from this point top 2 and a cup would be superb.

 

[Lee won pen]

We shall emulate the City team of the thirties - title winners followed by relegation!

…relegated as highest goalscorers I believe

 

[Bournemouth Blue]

I don’t care if we don’t qualify for the next stage of the CL, more interested in qualifying for 2025/26 CL, which means we just have to focus on the PL. It might help us keep players fit for the World Club Cup, the revenue lost from not progressing in the CL will probably be much less than failing to qualify for next season’s CL.

 

[KS55]

Pulling this out from another thread. Put a bit of time into doing some research this afternoon and painted an interesting picture for myself.

Something we have to remember is that this current setback - major as it feels - won't last long. We're now so big, so well-run, and so successful, that we'll simply never fuck off from the top table for long ever again. If Pep or the players aren't pulling their weight, we simply change things in the summer and spend big bucks to get things right again. Should the 130 charges hit and slam us down the divisions, our sheer size will bring us back up inside 10 years, possibly sooner.

We simply have too much money now, and too big a following, for us to ever be relegated via normal means. Like it or not, that's just the way football is now - solid money keeps you safe. So long as you have a semi-decent structure and a lot of cash, it's basically impossible to fall on genuinely hard times. Whether through will, determination, cash, or other means, the turds that would sink in any other era of football just don't get fully flushed anymore.

Between the Second World War and the early 1980s, First Division title winners would expect to experience burnout the following season, or they wouldn't be able to keep a quality team and staff together for a 5 or 10-year stretch like you can now. It was just expected that great teams would have their day in the sun and then go back to mid-table (or lower) while another team got a turn at creating a few special memories for themselves.

Wolves won the First Divison in 1958 and 1959 and won the FA Cup in 1960, were almost relegated in 1962 and were finally relegated in 1965. Burnley won the First Division in 1960, collapsed to 9th by 1964 and were relegated in 1971 after years of finishing 12th-14th. West Brom won the League Cup in 1966 and the FA Cup in 1968, relegated in 1973. Derby County were First Division champions in 1972 and 1975, but were relegated in 1980.

You could even look at City: First Division winners in 1968, FA Cup in 1969, Cup Winners Cup in 1970, finished 11th in 1971. Then won the League Cup in 1976 and went for the title in 1977 - relegated in 1983. And United: won the first Division in 1967 and the European Cup in 1968, but were relegated in 1974. Leeds won everything in sight between 1968 and 1974 but were in Division Two by 1982.

Nottm Forest - won everything in sight between 1977 and 1980 but were a mid-table side once again by the mid-1980s, had a revival at the end of the 1980s but went from winning two consecutive League Cups in 1989 and 1990 to relegation in 1993. Aston Villa had a great period of success between 1972 and 1982 but were relegated in 1987. English football history is a story of constant rise and fall - that's why our pyramid system was the best.

The Premier League changed all that.

Look at what's happened to Chelsea, Arsenal, United, and Liverpool since 1992. They've all had dry spells and "banter eras" that were written about at the time as though they were catastrophes, but the lowest any of them have ever finished in the Premier League era is 10th (Chelsea in 2016). The lowest that any of Arsenal, United, and Liverpool have finished since 1992 is 8th - all of them have always finished between 1st-8th since the formation of the Premier League.

Since their last Premier League title in 2004, Arsenal have still won 5x FA Cups and 6x Comm Shields, have reached 3x League Cup finals and 1x Europa League final, and have been runners-up in the Premier League three times. Since their last title in 2013, United have won 2x FA Cups, 2x League Cups, 2x Comm Shields, 1x Europa League, and have been Premier League runners up twice. Hardly anything to shake a stick at.

And in the 30 years Liverpool went without a Premier League title, they still won 4x FA Cups, 6x League Cups, 1x UEFA Cup, 2x European Cups, 3x Super Cups/Club World Cups, 1x Comm Shield, were FA Cup runners-up twice, League Cup runners-up twice, European Cup runners-up three times, and Europa League runners-up once. So many legends and happy times have passed through the doors at the Emirates, Old Trafford, and Anfield in "bad times".

You can look across the continent as well, at Barcelona, AC Milan and Inter Milan, Juventus, Atletico Madrid, etc. European superpowers who dominated the footballing landscape 2000s and 2010s (or just the 2010s in Atleti's case). All have been hit with lean periods and financial scandals, etc. but they were all just too big to be flushed away or overtaken by the teams below them. And now they're all back at the very top table again.

I mean, fuck, look at City again. Yes, we were mediocre for a generation and sank all the way to the third tier. But, because we were Manchester City, one of biggest clubs in England, we were able to afford the players and staff who carried us all the way back to the top flight and kept us there within three years. It even gets said on Sky Sports after the 5-2 win at Stoke: "Twice league champions, FA Cup winners four times, League Cup winners twice, European Cup Winners Cup winners... are going down into Division Two."

It was a massive, massive shock, even in 1998, that a club our size could fall so far - but within two years we were back in the top flight and within 10 years we were a solid mid-table PL team again. Since the takeover, what we are now is so much bigger, run so much better, and so much more powerful that the "bad times" won't come for another generation, maybe longer. We'll definitely fall from the very, very top one day soon, but it'll never be that far.

The only team in recent years who've done an equivalent of a 60s, 70s-style rise and fall is Leicester. Premier League winners in 2016 and FA Cup winners in 2021, relegated in 2023. But even they only spent one year slapping second tier teams silly before getting right back into the big time. And the only team to really collapse from winners to (virtual) nobodies in a generation is Leeds, and that was enforced by serious financial mismanagement - and maybe Wigan or Portsmouth at a push, but again, serious financial negligence caused that.

If I was going to predict how things will look over the next decade (providing the 130 charges aren't proved), I think once Pep goes in 2027 there will be a downturn. But I think that downturn is going to look a lot better viewed as part of the bigger picture because what we've been building over the last 15 years. If all we have to show for ourselves between 2027 and 2037 is finishing 2nd-8th and winning the odd cup, what's the harm in that?

And see below.

Unfortunately, we will be the first team to be relegated for fomenting a pro Russian coup in Georgia. We seem to make a habit of providing looney presidents for other countries. Add it to the 115.

 

[Keeper!]

not really, hapoens to all teams with decent manager and squads at some point, finishing out of the top 4 a season won't damage any club with good established conditions for success

it means the league is a lot healthier than the uncompetative ones in spain/france etc

IF we don't get in the CL next season it would be hammer blow, don't kid yourself.

The club will and expects to get in that top 4 and thus expects the income from the CL, the loss of a very minimum of 50m would be a huge blow but more importantly the carrot to signing players and playing in the CL is huge. Top players want to play in that competition and if a player has the choice of clubs, the one's in the CL have a huge advantage.

One get out of jail card we do have is the Club World Cup, that would cover the loss of CL in terms of finance but that comes with many disadvantages including our players yet again having no break from the game they desperately need and again no proper preseason to bed in new players.

That's why I am sure the club will go out and be very aggressive in the January market, 3 or 4 signing could transform the season and give us a good chance of getting in that top 4.

 

[mexico1970]

Win tomorrow?

What rot?

 

[Mad Eyed Screamer]

If the rot continues, all the ''legacy fans'' will still remain.




I'm fucking off back to Chelsea though

 

[applejuice]

Not that difficult. Stop playing Rico and tell Josko keep things simple u will get at least a draw and build from there.

If pep continues to play Rico in the midfield and let Josko leak goal after goal then the worst will happen.

And of course: don't play Walker