Is the top 4 now a closed shop again?

[TCIB]

So, the top four as it is now is going to take some shifting. My own view is that City and United will pull away even from Arsenal and Chelsea in financial terms, and I do believe City will overtake United. Chelsea will stay ahead of Arsenal and for the forseeable future Liverpool and Spurs are doomed to fight it out for fifth and sixth.

I do enjoy reading your stuff on here mate but i think you're wrong about us overtaking the cash cow. Over the next few years, we've got the 60th anniversary of Munich which will be a whole new enrolment procedure for a new generation.
Not to mention potential funerals for Sir Ticket Tout & Slurgie.
No, i can't see us overtaking them off the field ever.

"ever" is an awful long time blue.

 

[johnmc]

It's very difficult. I wouldn't say it's a closed shop but it's likely to be 4 from 5 possibly 6 every year

Whenever a challenger starts to put a team together they have their best players cherry picked. Southampton, Swansea and Spurs all suffered from this.

I do think the scousers would have given the rags a closer run for 4th with a fit Sturridge. With Ballotelli, Borini and Lambert they really have had a mid table or lower strike force.

 

[middleton___blue]

It's very difficult. I wouldn't say it's a closed shop but it's likely to be 4 from 5 possibly 6 every year

Whenever a challenger starts to put a team together they have their best players cherry picked. Southampton, Swansea and Spurs all suffered from this.

I do think the scousers would have given the rags a closer run for 4th with a fit Sturridge. With Ballotelli, Borini and Lambert they really have had a mid table or lower strike force.

Agree with you about team having their players snatched off them, its what will always be the downfall for the top 4 challenger clubs and will always be the reason why they will never convincingly overrtake the "big teams" and will always be competing instead of succeeding imho.

 

[gordondaviesmoustache]

It's very difficult. I wouldn't say it's a closed shop but it's likely to be 4 from 5 possibly 6 every year

Whenever a challenger starts to put a team together they have their best players cherry picked. Southampton, Swansea and Spurs all suffered from this.

I do think the scousers would have given the rags a closer run for 4th with a fit Sturridge. With Ballotelli, Borini and Lambert they really have had a mid table or lower strike force.

Agree with you about team having their players snatched off them, its what will always be the downfall for the top 4 challenger clubs and will always be the reason why they will never convincingly overrtake the "big teams" and will always be competing instead of succeeding imho.

I remember a Liverpool fan on RAWK berating our business model last season, comparing it unfavourably to Southampton's more 'organic' model. I did allow myself a smile when his club then subsequently pillaged the Saints of many of their leading players the following summer. So much for organic growth. Fucking hypocrites.

Liverpool must terribly miss when they could lord it over the likes of us.

 

[gordondaviesmoustache]

It cannot be said that it is a closed shop and will remain so indefinitely, but it is going to be difficult for anyone to break into it. Since 2005, when Everton did it for one season, only City appear to have transformed themselves into a "top four club". Spurs have done it twice but have been unable to maintain that position. Chelsea and United have dropped out of the top four but only for one season and have returned the next.

The problem is the champions league and the associated question of club revenues. In Liverpool's case the CL made their players attractive to other clubs, and when Liverpool's performance in the CL began to decline these other clubs became mightily attractive to Liverpool's players. In the space of two seasons they lost Xabi Alonso, Mascherano and Torres and this has been part of a decline which has seen them make only a fleeting return to the top four. Again this was followed by the sale of their prize asset to a heavyweight and his replacement by players of far inferior quality. This has been Spurs experience. Although their top four finishes were not followed by purchases likely to keep them in the top four, their inability to stay there saw the departure of Gareth Bale to the ultimate predator and the inability to attract A list players to replace him. City have had their problems in the transfer market since the coming into force of FFPR but we have kept the A list players bought in 2010 and have had a squad capable of winning titles since. The belief is that we are now strong enough without owner investment to operate at the top of the market.

The only ways to alter this financial imbalance - at least while FFP is in effect - is through commercial income and match day income. The fact is though that the richest four clubs occupy the top four places in the PL and are likely to get richer rather than poorer. Again CL revenues help, TV revenues are greater for those nearest the top and commercial revenue depends on exposure, which is greatest for those at the very top. City are talking about overtaking United, not worrying about dropping back to Liverpool or Spurs. Both Liverpool and Spurs are laying great store by the increase in match day income which will come from the increase in capacity at Anfield and the new stadium Spurs are to build. At the moment the redeveloped Anfield will hold just under 55 000 and Spurs' new stadium about 56 000. This does not rival OT or the Emirates and before then City's capacity will have risen to over 62 000, so Liverpool and Spurs appear not to be closing a revenue gap there. Anfield doesn't seem to have the same powers of attraction for corporate events as the other grounds!

So, the top four as it is now is going to take some shifting. My own view is that City and United will pull away even from Arsenal and Chelsea in financial terms, and I do believe City will overtake United. Chelsea will stay ahead of Arsenal and for the forseeable future Liverpool and Spurs are doomed to fight it out for fifth and sixth.

some very good points raised - we can speculate on what spurs and liverpool might do but ultimately all that matters is if thats going to be enough to make them better then the current top 4, and the answer really is no. their problem is there are always going to be 4 significantly stronger teams then them. one of the 2/3 stronger teams might break into top 4 on the odd occasions as always, but not on a consistent basis.

i think your predictions of you overtaking utd are WAY off though lol. obviously i don't support either team and have no bias but quite simply, utd are thereabouts on level with barca and madrid in terms of revenue and worth. i cannot possibly see city up there with those 3 in the forseeable future - you would need decades of success before that happens - none of those 3 teams have become this big for any other reason other then the fact that they have been successful more often then not for the last 50 years or so. you are also talking about increasing the value of your club by almost £2b to match their worth and subsequent revenues this worth generates!!

i also don't agree with arsenal falling behind. remember, out of the current top 4 teams we have been by far the LEAST successful over the last 10 years yet we are still pretty even with city and chelsea in terms of revenues. effectively, despite both your teams much recent successes, you haven't been able to significantly overtake arsenal. now that it looks like arsenal are entering a era where we can spend again and compete for trophies, logic states that we will only increase in our value and revenues. i think utd will always remain quite a bit in front when it comes to value and revenue, but the remaining 3 clubs will also always be about level. if anything, i think the team that has the biggest chance of pulling away is arsenal due to our stadium and attractiveness to sponsors.

If you knew the extent and scope of the very real plans for our club and the land that surrounds its ground you wouldn't dismiss BSHR's claim out of hand. They are truly staggering. He may be wrong in what he believes, but there's also a reasonable prospect that he's right.

You may have cause to remember your 'lol' in a few years time.

 

[BluessinceHydeRoad]

It cannot be said that it is a closed shop and will remain so indefinitely, but it is going to be difficult for anyone to break into it. Since 2005, when Everton did it for one season, only City appear to have transformed themselves into a "top four club". Spurs have done it twice but have been unable to maintain that position. Chelsea and United have dropped out of the top four but only for one season and have returned the next.

The problem is the champions league and the associated question of club revenues. In Liverpool's case the CL made their players attractive to other clubs, and when Liverpool's performance in the CL began to decline these other clubs became mightily attractive to Liverpool's players. In the space of two seasons they lost Xabi Alonso, Mascherano and Torres and this has been part of a decline which has seen them make only a fleeting return to the top four. Again this was followed by the sale of their prize asset to a heavyweight and his replacement by players of far inferior quality. This has been Spurs experience. Although their top four finishes were not followed by purchases likely to keep them in the top four, their inability to stay there saw the departure of Gareth Bale to the ultimate predator and the inability to attract A list players to replace him. City have had their problems in the transfer market since the coming into force of FFPR but we have kept the A list players bought in 2010 and have had a squad capable of winning titles since. The belief is that we are now strong enough without owner investment to operate at the top of the market.

The only ways to alter this financial imbalance - at least while FFP is in effect - is through commercial income and match day income. The fact is though that the richest four clubs occupy the top four places in the PL and are likely to get richer rather than poorer. Again CL revenues help, TV revenues are greater for those nearest the top and commercial revenue depends on exposure, which is greatest for those at the very top. City are talking about overtaking United, not worrying about dropping back to Liverpool or Spurs. Both Liverpool and Spurs are laying great store by the increase in match day income which will come from the increase in capacity at Anfield and the new stadium Spurs are to build. At the moment the redeveloped Anfield will hold just under 55 000 and Spurs' new stadium about 56 000. This does not rival OT or the Emirates and before then City's capacity will have risen to over 62 000, so Liverpool and Spurs appear not to be closing a revenue gap there. Anfield doesn't seem to have the same powers of attraction for corporate events as the other grounds!

So, the top four as it is now is going to take some shifting. My own view is that City and United will pull away even from Arsenal and Chelsea in financial terms, and I do believe City will overtake United. Chelsea will stay ahead of Arsenal and for the forseeable future Liverpool and Spurs are doomed to fight it out for fifth and sixth.

some very good points raised - we can speculate on what spurs and liverpool might do but ultimately all that matters is if thats going to be enough to make them better then the current top 4, and the answer really is no. their problem is there are always going to be 4 significantly stronger teams then them. one of the 2/3 stronger teams might break into top 4 on the odd occasions as always, but not on a consistent basis.

i think your predictions of you overtaking utd are WAY off though lol. obviously i don't support either team and have no bias but quite simply, utd are thereabouts on level with barca and madrid in terms of revenue and worth. i cannot possibly see city up there with those 3 in the forseeable future - you would need decades of success before that happens - none of those 3 teams have become this big for any other reason other then the fact that they have been successful more often then not for the last 50 years or so. you are also talking about increasing the value of your club by almost £2b to match their worth and subsequent revenues this worth generates!!

i also don't agree with arsenal falling behind. remember, out of the current top 4 teams we have been by far the LEAST successful over the last 10 years yet we are still pretty even with city and chelsea in terms of revenues. effectively, despite both your teams much recent successes, you haven't been able to significantly overtake arsenal. now that it looks like arsenal are entering a era where we can spend again and compete for trophies, logic states that we will only increase in our value and revenues. i think utd will always remain quite a bit in front when it comes to value and revenue, but the remaining 3 clubs will also always be about level. if anything, i think the team that has the biggest chance of pulling away is arsenal due to our stadium and attractiveness to sponsors.

If you knew the extent and scope of the very real plans for our club and the land that surrounds its ground you wouldn't dismiss BSHR's claim out of hand. They are truly staggering. He may be wrong in what he believes, but there's also a reasonable prospect that he's right.

You may have cause to remember your 'lol' in a few years time.

I wish to point out that it was Khaldoon who actually claimed that City would overtake United as the club with the highest revenue in English football, though I can't find the quote and reference it, but I don't find such a claim at all extreme or unrealistic. At the time of the take over City had only the 23rd highest revenue in Europe and were down in 9th place in England: in 2015 it put us in5th in Europe and comfortably in second in England. United are ahead of us, apparently comfortably in both revenue and value, but Forbes puts us ahead of all other English clubs in the "value" list as well.

I don't think United's revenue is that secure from attack from City. Their match day revenue is far superior to ours, but their commercial revenue is heavily dependent on two massive deals with Chevrolet and Adidas. It is hard to see much increase in these revenue streams in the short- or medium-term. This is not the case with City. The new training complex offers many, many opportunities for sponsorship, and the club has not yet begun to develop the collar site, which may well be a real gold mine. The works to increase capacity at the stadium, to over 62 000 within two years will increase match day revenue sharply, especially as corporate and hospitality facilities are given considerable attention. And as yet no-one is talking about the effects of the City Football Group, with clubs in New York and Melbourne (and very possibly elsewhere).

 

[mrtwiceaseason]

Don't think we have a closed top. 4 but barring a freak of nature we have a closed top ,6 for the foreseeable future.

 

[aguero93:20]

Don't think we have a closed top. 4 but barring a freak of nature we have a closed top ,6 for the foreseeable future.

Can't agree at all, the Europa League brings very little power with it but a lot of extra strain on the squad. 5th and 6th are always up for grabs.

 

[mrtwiceaseason]

Don't think we have a closed top. 4 but barring a freak of nature we have a closed top ,6 for the foreseeable future.

Can't agree at all, the Europa League brings very little power with it but a lot of extra strain on the squad. 5th and 6th are always up for grabs.

Apart from Chelsea,arsenal,city,utd,Liverpool,spurs who could you see being able to break into that 6 then ?
Don't forget winning the Europa gets you champions league football now

 

[ninjamonkey]

The dippers and Spurs are the only 2 that are capable of coming even remotely close to the top 4 but Spurs aren't capable of keeping their best players to get themselves in there so that they can then consolidate and bring in better players and Liverpool are, well... liverpool. Bar a monumental cock up from the tactical turtle and the most expensively assembled premier league side ever there's no way in for the next few years. The tv money is getting bigger and the gap will follow suit.