Very small possibility that there's ructions politically at barca enabling a new regime. That was Sky and mainstream media's initial angle on this. A messi plot to infuence the Barca regime. I think we can discount that.The way I see it is we now have 3 outcomes.
Barca negotiate a fee for Messi with us and sell him for circa £100mil. This is what is the easiest and best for all parties and seemingly what Messi is trying to get them to do.
If they continue to refuse then that leaves us with 2 other options.
Messi takes them to court over his contract about this free clause and Barca run the risk of losing him for nothing. Barti's quotes from last year do him no favours.
Or
The Webster ruling is invoked and FIFA settle the price. Again Barca run the risk of losing a decent amount of money.
The one guarantee is Messi has played his last game for Barca
I agree with your conclusions.
I think we all independently came to the same place which is quite good although we all share the same overall bias. I wonder what observers like Balague and Sid Lowe think. Their opinion will be interesting.