I'll say upfront I am no supporter of drinking and driving at any limit. However you are absolutely spot on. The data completely backs up your argument that this is about diminishing returns and a collapse in policing rather than the limit itself being too high. We actually have a perfect real-world example of this failure next door. Scotland dropped their limit from 80mg to 50mg back in 2014, and the results were damning. There was no statistically significant drop in road accidents or fatalities compared to England. The only thing it achieved was a hit to the pub trade as lawful drivers stopped having a casual pint with dinner, while the dangerous offenders simply ignored the new limit just as they had ignored the old one.
The reason the "rump of arseholes" you mentioned don't care about the limit is that there is no one around to catch them. The drop in enforcement is staggering. In 2009, police carried out around 700,000 breath tests a year. That number has plummeted to roughly 220,000 recently. We are running the road safety network on the fumes of a deterrent that existed fifteen years ago. Drivers know the chance of a random pull is practically zero, so the high-risk ones take the chance.
We can see this in the failure rates too. Even though police are doing nearly 70 per cent fewer tests, the percentage of drivers failing them has actually risen from about 11 per cent to 17 per cent. This shows that police have stopped doing the random checks that scare normal people into compliance and are now only testing drivers who have already crashed or are driving visibly erratically. The deterrent is gone.
On top of that, lowering the alcohol limit is a massive distraction from the real crisis, which is drug driving. While drink-drive deaths fell by 14 per cent between 2022 and 2023, drug-drive deaths surged by 38 per cent in the same period. Since 2014, the number of drivers killed with drugs in their system has risen by over 70 per cent. Cocaine and cannabis are now just as big a threat as alcohol, yet we have a massive shortage of traffic officers—down by over 20 per cent since 2015—to deal with it.
Lowering the alcohol limit now is just security theatre. It looks like action, but without the boots on the ground to enforce it or tackle the rising tide of drug driving, it will change nothing. That said, once we actually deal with that rump of dangerous offenders and restore proper policing levels, that would be the right time to look at lowering the limit. If we can get the hardcore reckless drivers off the road first, tightening the rules for everyone else might then help squeeze those casualty numbers down further, but doing it this way round is putting the cart before the horse.