somervillain
Well-Known Member
- Joined
- 25 Feb 2008
- Messages
- 474
Like many of you on here, I've been at a loss as far as explaining a club as maddeningly inconsistent as City have been this season. However, during today's match I had when seemed to me to be an epiphany.
If this seems obvious to some of you or has been discussed on here in a thread I've somehow missed, I apologize, but here's what I think is going on with the club.
In a nutshell, the only way City can win this season is if they score first -- and early on.
In the 18 matches in all competitions in which City have scored first, they have gone on to win 12 of those matches and drawn two.
In the 11 matches in all competitions in which City have conceded first, they have come back to win just once and earned a draw on one other occasion.
Now this might seem relatively obvious, as scoring first tends to be a huge advantage in football. But what happens after this first goal is the really interesting thing.
When City score first, they have a +11 goal differential (27 for, 16 against) the rest of the match. When City concede first, they have a -1 goal differential (9 for, 10 against) the rest of the match.
When you break down City's 53 goals in competitions, 23 have come while leading, 21 while even, and just nine while behind.
Now this leads me to two potential explanations:
1. City are a mentally fragile side that don't deal well with falling behind and aren't able to pull themselves together and rebound from that.
2. City rely almost exclusively on counterattacking for goals, so when opponents go on top and tend to stop attacking, these opportunities disappear, meaning City are left to produce goals from build-up play and set pieces.
Or possibly a combination of the two.
Either way, this is something that needs to change going forward if City are to make a return to Europe next season.
If this seems obvious to some of you or has been discussed on here in a thread I've somehow missed, I apologize, but here's what I think is going on with the club.
In a nutshell, the only way City can win this season is if they score first -- and early on.
In the 18 matches in all competitions in which City have scored first, they have gone on to win 12 of those matches and drawn two.
In the 11 matches in all competitions in which City have conceded first, they have come back to win just once and earned a draw on one other occasion.
Now this might seem relatively obvious, as scoring first tends to be a huge advantage in football. But what happens after this first goal is the really interesting thing.
When City score first, they have a +11 goal differential (27 for, 16 against) the rest of the match. When City concede first, they have a -1 goal differential (9 for, 10 against) the rest of the match.
When you break down City's 53 goals in competitions, 23 have come while leading, 21 while even, and just nine while behind.
Now this leads me to two potential explanations:
1. City are a mentally fragile side that don't deal well with falling behind and aren't able to pull themselves together and rebound from that.
2. City rely almost exclusively on counterattacking for goals, so when opponents go on top and tend to stop attacking, these opportunities disappear, meaning City are left to produce goals from build-up play and set pieces.
Or possibly a combination of the two.
Either way, this is something that needs to change going forward if City are to make a return to Europe next season.