Guardian writers' prediction 2nd (This is not Daniel Taylor's prediction, but the average of our writers' tips)
Last season's position 3rd
Odds to win the league 7-2
When everything is said and done, it all boils down to one thing for Manchester City this season and it is this: can they go that one step further? Can they turn all that drive, ambition, hard spending and unrelenting momentum into something more serious and, finger by finger, prise Sir Alex Ferguson's grip off the Premier League trophy?
There were nine points between them last season so it would take a fairly hefty swing, but there is certainly good reason to believe there may be less distance between the two Manchester clubs this time around. City were top of the league last Christmas and eventually finished third, their highest finish since 1977. Ferguson, by his own admission, has been forced to take them more seriously than any other point in almost a quarter of a century at Old Trafford, and Roberto Mancini can certainly feel a lot more confident now City, in keeping with every summer under the ownership of the Abu Dhabi United Group, have once again eclipsed everyone in the transfer market.
When the question of City winning the league was raised a couple of weeks ago, on their pre-season trip to Los Angeles, Mancini shook his head and dismissed it out of hand, simmering with the apparent sense that other people at the club were letting him down. But Sergio Agüero has signed since then and the Argentinian is the kind of player who can make the difference, lift an entire club, invigorate the senses. Agüero, recruited from Atlético Madrid for £38m, is the most exhilarating signing of the summer, a symbol of City's new ambitions and attractiveness.
Yet it has been a quieter time than usual at Eastlands and certainly nothing like what might have been anticipated if you listened to Harry Redknapp in May, when he talked of having inside knowledge of City's targets and predicted their transfer business "will blow your brains out". Redknapp might invite less public cynicism if he spared us this kind of nonsense. City always had to be more restrained because, in short, if they carried on with the money-no-object transfer splurges they would be kicked out of the Champions League in the next few years for not meeting Uefa's financial fair play rules.
As such, the £50m they have spent on Agüero, Gaël Clichy and Stefan Savic is chickenfeed compared to the vast amounts Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan casually signed off in previous transfer windows, even if there might yet be another addition or two. Last summer, the figure was around £130m. The previous season, the total transfer business was £144m. Mancini has suddenly discovered he no longer has unlimited access to a seemingly bottomless pot of riches and the revelation has not always been to his liking.
City, nonetheless, may have moved marginally ahead of Chelsea as the more credible challengers to United. What we have now is a serious organisation, with real aspirations, a plan, forward thinking, and the resources and mindset to carry it through – barely recognisable from the City of old, the club that was skint, endearingly prone to moments of tragicomedy and, ultimately, a little bit clueless.
The modern-day City are no longer to be patronised, pushed around and put down. After so many years on "the high moral step of continual failure", Simon Curtis of Down The Kippax Steps, probably the best City blog around, noted recently, they are acclimatising to a new existence where "we must try to adopt a different pose for all the flashbulbs suddenly exploding in our faces". It can feel like a different lifetime since Stuart Pearce, one of Mancini's predecessors, was told his transfer budget had gone and played David James, an international goalkeeper, as a centre-forward. In fact, it was six years ago.
The new, ultra-ambitious City increasingly have a big-time feel. They have spent £20m or more on nine different players using Abu Dhabi's oil riches, and have three players earning salaries in excess of £200,000 a week. But there is more to it than that. There are plans to increase the Etihad Stadium (renamed as part of a £400m sponsorship package) to a 60,000 capacity and develop a vast expanse of land around the ground, including a 7,000-seat stadium for their youth team and a new training ground.
What Eastlands doesn't have yet - and this is the point we are reminded of old Manchester City, the club of Peter Swales, Alan Ball and all the rest – is an actual trophy room. They didn't see the point of building one because, quite simply, there was nothing of particular note to fill it. Bernard Halford, the club's now-retired secretary, just used to stick everything that came their way in a broom cupboard.
Very soon, you imagine, that will change. Winning the FA Cup – as United will testify – can have therapeutic qualities for a club that has lapsed for so many years. From here, City should be stronger, more assured, playing with the authentic sense they are now capable of fully structured, productive, grown-up football.
There are, however, imperfections that may need to be addressed if City are to stand a realistic chance of outdoing United, Chelsea and all the rest. For starters, Edin Dzeko and Mario Balotelli will have to do better than last season. Dzeko managed only two league goals in 15 appearances and looked careless of touch at times even though, to give him his due, he would probably be more effective if City operated with orthodox wingers. As for Balotelli, a part of him will probably always be that boy who stayed in the playground too long, but if he avoids the injury problems that disrupted his first season and remembers to take his head out on to the pitch he can endorse Mancini's theory that the good outweighs the bad.
Then, of course, there is The Peculiar Case of Carlos Tevez and an issue so complex there are people at Eastlands who genuinely suspect the proposed £40m move to Corinthians last month was little more than a publicity stunt. Tevez was initially due to return to training for the first time today, albeit against his will, but it will not be until Monday now that Mancini will next see a player who scored or set up 48% of City's league goals last season. The delay feels entirely predictable and merely reiterates Tevez's reluctance to return to Manchester. It is just that there are not many clubs who want to pay more than £40m for a player who has a history of moving every couple of years and who, at 27, is at an age when his transfer value starts to depreciate. Tevez had to be persuaded, with the threat of a fine, to take his place on the open-top bus for City's FA Cup parade, which is fairly ludicrous for a club captain, and his behaviour before and after that ought really to persuade Mancini to hand the armband to Vincent Kompany. Tevez may sulk but, really, so what? If he does stick around, he has already shown he has the knack of playing well, sometimes brilliantly, even when his mind is polluted with grievances.
One certainty is that City will be glad Agüero is not represented by Kia Joorabchian.
So, can they do it? A personal hunch is that their squad, in its current size, might find the combination of going for the title and playing their first season in the Champions League a little too heavy going – but that it will be a close-run thing.
Mancini may also have to be a little less defence-minded at times, even if it is peculiar this tag has attached itself to a team that scored more goals last season than, say, Tottenham Hotspur, so often acclaimed as one of the Premier League's great entertainers.
Mancini certainly does not have to apologise for the fact Joe Hart won the Premier League's "golden glove" award last season, with 18 clean sheets (a club-record 29 in all competitions). It is interesting, though, that two of the three new signings have been defenders. Clichy is not the most watertight full-back around, but the former Arsenal player is quicker and more agile than Aleksandar Kolarov. Mancini had enough reservations about Joleon Lescott to want to replace him with Gary Cahill of Bolton Wanderers earlier in the summer. Savic was the cheaper option and the Montenegro international, eventually joined by Kolo Touré, will push Lescott for the right to partner Kompany, a fine, consistent centre-half.
In midfield, there is a nice blend of steel and finesse. Adam Johnson, on form, can trouble the most accomplished full-back and, at 24, is old enough now to start thinking about establishing himself as more than just an impact player. Yaya Touré should be even better in his second season at the club and only the lazy and misguided still regard Nigel de Jong as little more than a streetwise slugger. The Dutchman is the outstanding defensive midfielder in the league.
As for David Silva, the Spaniard is blessed with a left foot that can make you quicken your step as you walk to the ground.
City also have a manager in charge who knows how to win major trophies and is not frightened of success. Mancini's record in the transfer market cannot be classed as an emphatic success, but he has demonstrated enough over the last 20 months to end any lingering argument about whether it was correct to replace Mark Hughes – even if, with that, the Italian's true personality is increasingly being seen behind the scenes.
Those who know Mancini best, who have followed his career as a player and manager and understand what makes him tick, had warned when he was appointed that his time in Manchester would be measured out in different phases. The first would be Mancini on a charm offensive, working out his territory, getting to know the club politics, then gradually weeding out the players who do not buy into his methods and demonstrating, over time, that he is very much The Boss. The second is a man who permanently seems disappointed with his bosses, who bends for nobody, increasingly detached and empowered with success – in the language of the sport, a bit of a bastard. Which, in fairness, is not necessarily a bad thing in football.
It feels like we are moving into the second part of that process right now. Mancini has won his first trophy and elevated himself to a new position of power. He has said he wants more control, that he should be allowed the influence that Ferguson has at Manchester United. He has admitted having differences with Garry Cook, which is almost always the kind of thing football managers try to keep from the newspapers. And these issues with Cook – as well as the football administrator, Brian Marwood – are still there, still festering.
Mancini, however, is far from the first man in high position not to see eye to eye with his chief executive, particularly in an industry as two-faced as football. The important thing, to quote Mancini, is that he and Cook "have the same target" because, together, they might just achieve it.
City demonstrated in the FA Cup last season that they mean business, turning the semi-final into an ordeal for Ferguson and United before Yaya Touré's winning goal in the final brought down the "Ticker" banner that had hung permanently at Old Trafford to mock that 35-year run without a trophy. The issue now is whether they can go one better and win the league – or even the Champions League – and what we can say for certain is that no other top-six club goes into the season with so much forward momentum.
Paul Lake's autobiography, I'm Not Really Here, comes out today and tells the story of one match in 1989 when City could have guaranteed promotion by beating Bournemouth at Maine Road. They were 3-0 up at half-time – party time! – and the manager, Mel Machin, told the players he was bringing in a special friend for the team talk. In came the comedian Eddie Large – shiny silver suit, sleeves rolled up – to dole out individual advice to the players … each time using a different celebrity impersonation. "Deputy Dawg ordered me to keep tight in defence," Lake recalls. "Cliff Richard advised Trevor Morley to shoot on sight, Harold Wilson told Bob Brightwell to keep it simple and Benny from Crossroads told Andy Dibble to stay awake." The game finished 3-3. Typical City, as they used to say. But no more.
