Middle East Conflict

One that won't benefit Ukraine I'd wager.

Everything is so unpredictable anything can happen.
Depends what your starting point for benefit is. I think what’s left of Ukraine can really prosper. Especially if Europe keeps the economic pressure up on Russia. No good reason it shouldn’t.

Agree about the unpredictability but Russia isn’t holding anywhere near as many cards as it was when Trump said the invasion was very clever (or some such words). Even Trump will now appreciate it was anything but.

That is likely to greatly inform his negotiating MO.

Ultimately depends how compromised he actually is, I guess.
 
Wonder if matters internally in Iran will now take on some sort of momentum. Now has to be the best time, surely.
It's possible. At heart, Iran is quite 'civilised'. If the hardline Islamists were overcome in Iran then Hamas and Hezbollah would lack funding and support. This would give a 'real' leader the chance to emerge in Palestine who could gain worldwide respect and Israeli trust. Peace and a realistic compromise may then finally emerge (but somehow I doubt it).
 
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It's possible. At heart, Iran is quite 'civilised'. If the hardline Islamists were overcome in Iran then Hamas and Hezbollah would lack funding and support. This would give a 'real' leader the chance to emerge in Palestine who could gain worldwide respect and Israeli trust. Peace and a realistic compromise may then finally emerge (but somehow I doubt it).

Gain Israeli trust

Deary fuckin me.
 
Well that's impossible for me to think like a terrorist who is born into a life that has built his brain structure to the state that it is like now.

I guess they didn't kill 1,000+ civilians to come to a constructive solution with Israel. They would be finding far more support in all western countries if they would simply ask why people around the world are supposed to live free and in dignity, but not in Gaza. We would have no answer.
We have seen huge support on western streets, but Hamas played their cards extremely poorly.

Hatred and revenge was their plan instead and yes I do understand where it's coming from but still it's a shite plan (of mainly young uneducated brainwashed testosterone driven rebels with too many weapons, as a generalizing remark).

Would they play more chess they had been able to think 3 or 5 moves ahead.
They also shouldn't listen to ruzzia or Iran who only want to destabilize any region where they want to gain more influence. Gladly that went down the drain.

But there's not much hope. The conflict is too old, the wounds too deep, too many different radical religious parties involved. In a geopolitical hot spot.
Let's hope Syria can go a more moderate route, with so many different interests and parties in the mix. Radicals will already be planning to thwart that route. Like always.
Good post.
Militarily I think the Hamas attack of October 7th defies logic and anyone who supported it is no friend of the Palestinian people and more attached to a total Palestinian victory (which realistically looks impossible and just leads to more Palestinian death, suffering and loss of land. Brain dead tactics).
 
Depends what your starting point for benefit is. I think what’s left of Ukraine can really prosper. Especially if Europe keeps the economic pressure up on Russia. No good reason it shouldn’t.

Agree about the unpredictability but Russia isn’t holding anywhere near as many cards as it was when Trump said the invasion was very clever (or some such words). Even Trump will now appreciate it was anything but.

That is likely to greatly inform his negotiating MO.

Ultimately depends how compromised he actually is, I guess.
It feels like Russia is now exiting its interests elsewhere. We've also seen Zelensky say yesterday that he is open to talks and ending the war. Iran has totally lost its influence in the middle east and Israel has seemingly defeated everybody and is overextending beyond itself.

Clearly, whatever they sought to achieve, the US and Europe have won. I can't help but feel that with the incoming Trump there are now deals to be done.
 
I don't blame them.

Not sure I will approve of what they do next, but I can't really criticise them for that move, tbh. Who knows what they will have living next to them?
Where does it end though? Someone in Syria resists and they end up bombing Damascus?
 

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