North Korea vs USA

Chippy_boy said:
i hope you are right, and I do believe you are.

But I would not bet the farm on it, unfortunately. It's very obvious that NK is terrified about having their regime overthrown, and with good reason. First of all, you have the evidence from the numerous other independent states over the past couple of decades that have been invaded and/or the regime toppled. And then you have the US' point blank refusal to stop parking its tanks on NK's lawn, so to speak. The Chinese and Russians have more than once offered to broker a deal in which NK abandons its nuclear program, and in return the US stops its military manoevers around the peninsular. NK was receptive to the idea; the US refuses.

What signal does that send to NK? It makes them even more worried. Then you have Trump's sabre rattling, which makes them more worried still. Their imperative to build a nuclear weapon capable of hitting US targets, is made even stronger by Trump's threats.

So there is no way NK is going to willingly abandon its weapons program in the current climate. Were the two sides to sit down and talk, and perhaps if the US signed a treaty guaranteeing not to attack NK in any first strike, then maybe they could be persuaded. But there's no sign of any such dialogue any time soon.

So on the path we are on, it goes one of two ways. Either NK continues and eventually does have a fully deployable nuclear weapon, or they run out of money. My fear is the latter may not happen. You don't need to pay scientists and engineers who are told they'll be shot if they don't carry on. People can be made to work for nothing, so as long as the country produces enough food to feed the elite and the key scientists, I don't know how sanctions are going to stop them.

There's talk about perhaps civil unrest amongst the starving millions being great enough to mount a coup? I can't see it. Their conventional forces are enormous and it's hard to imagine how the regime could be overthrown whilst this is the case.

NK getting a viable nuclear missile - should that come to pass - is not in itself my main concern, since I don't think for one moment they would fire it at anyone. Doing so would ensure their immediate and total destruction. No, the worry is that should they advance ever closer to having such a weapon, voices in the US calling for a pre-emptive strike, will only get louder. "Better to act now, than later when the consequences could be so much worse" etc etc. I've heard such voices already. This is what worries me most.
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In layman's terms your saying blitz them now?
 
Trumps threats are working a treat. Iran just launched a test missile and Korea might have detonated another test nuke.
 
Pam said:
I am more worried about Trump's ridiculous saber rattling towards Iran. He is intent on war there. As if the Middle East wasn't enough of a quagmire already.
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Trump may well have had his say over Iran, but he is not the problem there, maybe the solution. Israel simply will not tolerate a nuclear armed Iran. No pissing about warning them or calling them names, no pointless drivel via the UN....if Iran get anywhere close to having nuclear weapons Israel will take them out. Given that Iran have stated thier wish to wipe Israel off the map who can blame them.
 
himalayan_blues said:
Are we on verge of world war 3?
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No.

I think the chances of either the US or NK striking each other are very low (although there's a small risk the US - or more specifically Trump - might do something stupid).

However the chance of Russia or China wanting to get involved in a war with the US, is frankly nil.
 
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