Paris Saint-Germain (H) - CL SF | Pre-Match Thread

Result Prediction


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MAG

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Unfinished Business

Continuing on from where I left off in the first leg ... there isn't much to update from their end as the last time they played a game was the one against us on Wednesday night in Paris. Their league game this weekend isn't till later this evening so there is no change in the Ligue 1 table as far as they are concerned.

On this side of the channel, we are a lot closer to the Premier League title than they are to Ligue 1. We could easily afford to rest our key players against Crystal Palace earlier today, actually pretty much every single one of them who played the last leg (and will start this one next) bar the goalkeeper and one of Rodri/Ferna ... but I don't think PSG can afford the same luxury in their league game this weekend. Anyone wanting to catch their game can watch them take on the fifth placed side RC Lens at home on BT Sport 2 and 2 HD at 4:00pm UK time.

Paris Saint-Germain v Racing Club de Lens
Parc des Princes, Paris, France
Saturday 1st May 2021 | Kickoff 1700 (UK 1600)


A quick reminder then of the games around this second-leg for both teams:

Paris Saint-Germain
Sat 1 - 5:00pm - Lens (H) - Ligue 1
Tue 4 - 9:00pm - City (A) - CL SF
Sun 9 - 5:00pm - Rennes (A) - Ligue 1

Manchester City
Sat 1 - 12:30pm - Palace (A) - PL
Tue 4 - 8:00pm - PSG (H) - CL SF
Sat 8 - 5:30pm - Chelsea (H) - PL

All times listed above are local to the teams. France is in Western European Time zone which is GMT+1




Are we there yet?

I don't know if we have one leg in the Final yet, but we surely are just one leg away from what will be the biggest game in our club's history ... and this one leg we don't even need to win to get there; any draw would do the job, even a narrow defeat will do the job (see all different scenarios and permutations below).

Allow my ever-optimist self to first list down all the advantages that we have going into this second leg, no mater how small or big ...
  • We have a few more hours to prepare for the second leg than them ... we have already finished our weekend game and they don't even kick-off for another few hours.
  • We could afford to rest our big players today, actually ended up resting almost everyone ... while they really can't afford that kind of rotation/rest.
  • They have lost Idrissa Gyeye to that petulant red card in the first leg who will surely be amiss in their midfield. Sure someone else will come in, possibly Ander Herrera, but it won't be the same as their first choice.
  • What else? ... oh yeah, we are at home, and they've got to travel.
  • The pitch, yes that very bad pitch of ours ... they won't like it one bit; we don't like it either but at least our players are more used to it.
  • We already have won the first leg, and we have a one goal advantage on aggregate.
  • Actually if comes to that, we have two away goals as well.

But scrap all that ... I don't think we need to find comforts from any of those small little advantages that we may or may not have ... the biggest confidence boost that we can draw from that first leg was our second-half performance there ... and yes as bad (and nervous) as that first half was, that too is a good thing that it happened ... so it's out of the system now ... having gone through it and dealt with it ... that stage freight, that fear of big-league and any of that self-doubt is all gone now ... and this game can't come soon enough!

But the game isn't played on paper because if it was, I have just given you enough reasons to cheer up and consider this done and dusted. The reality is very different though and time to look at the other side of the coin ... that other team is coming out to play as well, and they are no mugs ... and without making a whole list of positives for them, have a look at just this one bit of their recent past ...


This is Paris Saint-Germain's last three away games in the Champions League:
  • Bayern Munich 2 - 3 PSG
  • Barcelona 1 - 4 PSG
  • Manchester United 1 - 3 PSG
And while we're at it, let's look at their last five away games in other domestic competitions as well:
  • Metz 1 - 3 PSG
  • Strasbourg 1 - 4 PSG
  • Lyon 2 - 4 PSG
  • Brest 0 - 3 PSG
  • Dijon 0 -4 PSG

Like I was saying ... they're no mugs ... and if they get a result matching any of those eight scores listed above, they'd be the ones going through. They are a team very much capable of scoring plenty away from home and actually their away form (in both Europe and on domestic fronts) right now is much better than their home form. Here are all different scenarios and score permutations for the second leg:


Scores and Permutations

City 1-0 PSG | 3-1 City win
City 2-0 PSG | 4-1 City win
City 3-0 PSG | 5-1 City win

City 0-1 PSG | 2-2 City win on Away Goals
City 0-2 PSG | 2-3 PSG win
City 0-3 PSG | 2-4 PSG win

City 0-0 PSG | 2-1 City win
City 1-1 PSG | 3-2 City win
City 2-2 PSG | 4-3 City win
City 3-3 PSG | 5-4 City win

City 2-1 PSG | 4-2 City win
City 1-2 PSG | 3-3 Extra Time / Pens

City 3-1 PSG | 5-2 City win
City 1-3 PSG | 3-4 PSG win

City 3-2 PSG | 5-3 City win
City 2-3 PSG | 4-4 PSG win on Away Goals



Basically, any draw (scored or nil-nil) gets us through ... a win of any kind for us gets us through ... a narrow 0-1 loss for us also gets us through on away goals ... the only way they go through on away goals is if they win 3-2 (or higher, by a single goal margin) ... and the only one result, the reverse of first leg if they win 2-1, takes the game to extra time and possible penalties.

If we score the first goal, they'll need at least three and our defence has been pretty solid all season and showed it in Paris as well where we nullified Mbappe, Neymar and the rest of their superstars collective and restricted them to just a single set-piece goal. If however they score first, it's going to get very nervy once again ... at least for us fans.





Match Prediction

Just get through ... and please do it the easy way; score one or two first and early so we can all watch this a little relaxed and not be a nervous wreck throughout. Although I don't think that either side will completely run away with it so fully expecting the tie to be quite on a knife's edge till the very end. However, since we have won our last three ties in Europe (the first leg of this Semi Final and both legs of the Quarter Final) with a score-line of 2-1, I'm going with the same ...

Manchester City 2 - 1 Paris Saint-Germain

See you on the other side ... in Istanbul!





How will we line up?

A little later in the thread I have done a quick analysis on how we lined up in the first leg vs how we could line up this time ... you will see it on page 7 when you get there or here's the direct link to it:



 

MAG

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I wonder if Ferna coming off early and Rodri playing the whole game today means ferna will start.

I was thinking the same ... I won't be surprised at all by it as well, he just keeps getting better and better with age ... would give us total control in the middle there, certainly better than Rodri to start with and then when he tires, bring is Rodri but by that time we hopefully have control of the tie.
 

Blu3m00n91

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Same team and same 2nd half performance and we’re through. Bring it on
 

blueabdi

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Ederson
Walker Stones, Dias, Zincho
Fernandinho...Rodri...Gundo
Mahrez...KEVIN ...Bbernardo

I think pep will rest Foden first half and start more defensive midfield with fernan, rodi and gundo.
Kevin as false 9 with Mahrez and bernardo as wingers

Comon CITY
 

Beanhead

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I was thinking the same ... I won't be surprised at all by it as well, he just keeps getting better and better with age ... would give us total control in the middle there, certainly better than Rodri to start with and then when he tires, bring is Rodri but by that time we hopefully have control of the tie.

Nah.. I would stick with the same line up. Love Fern but same line up for me.
 
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