Political relations between UK-EU

[metalblue]

I am aware that Trump put the final nail in the coffin, but TTIP never really stood a chance of going through in the form that the US originally wanted because of the hostility across Europe that you have mentioned in your quote. Whatever the EU Commission thought, it would never have got past the EU Council or the EU Parliament that represents the individual governments and individual voters respectively, unless there were huge changes to the rights given to the multinationals. As an economic equal to the US, the EU had the clout to be able to resist those pressures if Trump hadn't knocked it on the head for other reasons. If and when we, as an individual country, are in a similar position in trade negotiations with the US, do you trust our government not to lie down and accept those terms? I certainly don't, especially as we'll still desperately be trying to make up for the downturn in trade with our nearest neighbours due to the trade barriers our government has insisted on implementing as a result of our vote to leave.

The commission would not have been negotiating TTIPs in isolation from either the council or parliament. Its always close cooperation to prevent years of negotiations going down the pan because the terms are not palatable to either the council or parliament. Now domestic pressure may well have played a part in bringing it down but the very fact the commission were happy with this deal and didn’t give two fucks what folks thought is really the crux of the issue for me.

Fortunately, as articulated on this thread, we are now way down the pegging order for a US trade agreement but should we ever get to a similar place with our own trade negotiations we can discuss how we should overthrow the government ;)

 

[west didsblue]

Well actually it’s bonkers that the EU won’t recognise UK rulings as enforceable in the EU given the vast vast majority of all contracts are governed by UK law. I’m not sure what the EUs end game is here. Will people and firms have to sue in both the UK courts and then, if successful, a court that the EU does recognise as equivalent? That’ll make justice easier won’t it? Long term affect on UK might be EU domicile companies asking to transitioning contracts away from using UK law but I don’t see anyone outside the EU agreeing to this readily.

Really can't understand why the EU have decided to treat the UK as a competitor all of a sudden!

Seriously, you could use the exact same argument that the Brexiteers have used to justify Brexit. Short term pain for long term gain. In their case though it's probably true because their legal services industry will undoubtedly get a boost at the expense of ours and the companies that depend on those services will eventually adjust to the new arrangements. However I see no prospect of any long term gain for us thanks to Brexit, because the sanctions we have effectively imposed on ourselves will always make things more difficult than they would be irrespective of what costly mitigations and work rounds are eventually put in place.

 

[metalblue]

Isn’t it just a straight case of us being left out in the cold while they harvest our markets?

Not really because these contracts go out years if not decades. I struggle to see the benefit to the EU here, it simply damages their own citizens and firms ability to seek justice - and that can’t be right. It’s been muted it’s punishment but talk about cutting off your nose to spite your face. So if it’s not punishment then what? Buggered if I know.

 

[west didsblue]

The commission would not have been negotiating TTIPs in isolation from either the council or parliament. Its always close cooperation to prevent years of negotiations going down the pan because the terms are not palatable to either the council or parliament. Now domestic pressure may well have played a part in bringing it down but the very fact the commission were happy with this deal and didn’t give two fucks what folks thought is really the crux of the issue for me.

Fortunately, as articulated on this thread, we are now way down the pegging order for a US trade agreement but should we ever get to a similar place with our own trade negotiations we can discuss how we should overthrow the government ;)

It's also quite possible that the Commission knew all along that it would never get past the Council, Parliament and individual countries for ratification but didn't want to be seen to be walking away.

 

[metalblue]

Really can't understand why the EU have decided to treat the UK as a competitor all of a sudden!

Seriously, you could use the exact same argument that the Brexiteers have used to justify Brexit. Short term pain for long term gain. In their case though it's probably true because their legal services industry will undoubtedly get a boost at the expense of ours and the companies that depend on those services will eventually adjust to the new arrangements. However I see no prospect of any long term gain for us thanks to Brexit, because the sanctions we have effectively imposed on ourselves will always make things more difficult than they would be irrespective of what costly mitigations and work rounds are eventually put in place.

I have no difficulty grasping that the EU sees us as a competitor - in my own industry I see them trying to leverage into revenue streams previously denied to Paris and Berlin. I have zero issue with it either, it’s just games and business will always outsmart the politicians because they don’t understand the industries to the right level.

But this is different, this looks like it’s denying easy justice - but it doesn’t really affect me so they can crack on as far as I’m concerned.

 

[metalblue]

It's also quite possible that the Commission knew all along that it would never get past the Council, Parliament and individual countries for ratification but didn't want to be seen to be walking away.

You mean it was just a smoke screen for us to get Messi?

 

[west didsblue]

You mean it was just a smoke screen for us to get Messi?

Something like that.

But in reality, the ratification process would never have allowed TTIP to go through in the form that it was in when it was canned by Trump.

If you remember the Canada EU deal which I don't recall being particularly contentious, that was held up and nearly scuppered because a region of Belgium didn't like it and the Belgian government had to talk them round. If multiple national governments including the Germans didn't like some of the provisions of TTIP, there was zero chance of it going through.

I think your vote for Brexit might have been on a false premise if TTIP was the main reason.

 

[Vic]

"Pro-Europeans are not interested in fixing Johnson’s deal, which they see as irredeemable; and leavers cannot concede that their fundamental premise was flawed. Neither side is yet ready to work with the banal reality that Brexit is an unspectacular failure: neither triumph, nor apocalypse. It is the damp smell in British politics that can be endured, but not quite ignored. The longer it is left untreated, the more expensive it will be to fix."

From
Brexit is a failure: but, to remainers’ frustration, it’s not a spectacular one | Rafael Behr | The Guardian

 

[metalblue]

Something like that.

But in reality, the ratification process would never have allowed TTIP to go through in the form that it was in when it was canned by Trump.

If you remember the Canada EU deal which I don't recall being particularly contentious, that was held up and nearly scuppered because a region of Belgium didn't like it and the Belgian government had to talk them round. If multiple national governments including the Germans didn't like some of the provisions of TTIP, there was zero chance of it going through.

I think your vote for Brexit might have been on a false premise if TTIP was the main reason.

Ignoring that a trade deal with the US is a different level.

I know the trade agreement with Brazil took something like 20 years because of a similar backwards and forwarding.

The Canadian deal still went through after the Belgium government persuaded rebels to vote it through. Our own government was in favour of TTIPs so we would have been reliant on rebels halting it. It’s all a bit “Jesus is my airbag”. That you put all your faith in it is your choice but I remain very happy with my reasons for my choice and would do the same again in a heartbeat.

 

[MillionMilesAway]

As far as I can tell, the Lugano issue is that the EU/Commission view it as being intended for countries with closely similar regulatory processes. There's no guarantee that in the future this would remain the case with the UK.

I can see that they might view a diverged UK as being not a great place to have make rulings.
I can also see why the UK might view that hypothetical situation as unlikely.
It's a breakdown of trust.