Post Match Thread: Election 2017

[jonmcity]

there will not be a second referendum imo. leave would win if there was. you can't say its the only way because it isn't. who knows we might not even get a deal in which case we are out anyway. this election wasnt really fought on brexit, barely any of the parties even talked about it.

It is the reason that May said she had called it, i.e. to give her a mandate to do whatever she wanted. The people said NO.

 

[Chippy_boy]

I can't see Corbyn ever winning an overall majority. But the tories are in such disarray (and the brexit negotiations aren't going to make that any better) that I think a Labour led coalition must be the most likely outcome of the next election, which could be within 2 years.

Try 2 months?

Seriously who knows. But I can't see a coalition government with a majority of 5 and no mandate for any particular Brexit "style", being a viable option going forward. So I wouldn't be at all surprised if another election is called soonish. The conservatives would not be sure of winning it this time, but there may be no other option.

 

[Cheadle_hulmeBlue]

It is the reason that May said she had called it, i.e. to give her a mandate to do whatever she wanted. The people said NO.

it wasnt specifically about leaving the single market though, it was on a load of different issues, with a lot of leavers voting for say labours economic policies. i dont like saying it, but maybe there should be a referendum on leaving the single market ? then it can finally be decided.

 

[Cheadle_hulmeBlue]

Try 2 months?

Seriously who knows. But I can't see a coalition government with a majority of 5 and no mandate for any particular Brexit "style", being a viable option going forward. So I wouldn't be at all surprised if another election is called soonish. The conservatives would not be sure of winning it this time, but there may be no other option.

but what do we do if the result is the same/similar.

 

[cibaman]

there will not be a second referendum imo. leave would win if there was. you can't say its the only way because it isn't. who knows we might not even get a deal in which case we are out anyway. this election wasnt really fought on brexit, barely any of the parties even talked about it.

Leave might win a 2nd referendum (I think they probably would). But why would leavers take the risk? A soft brexit deal could always be hardened in time. So I agree that there probably will not be 2nd referendum, because a hard brexit is no longer a viable prospect.

 

[jonmcity]

it wasnt specifically about leaving the single market though, it was on a load of different issues, with a lot of leavers voting for say labours economic policies. i dont like saying it, but maybe there should be a referendum on leaving the single market ? then it can finally be decided.

I think there will have to be a vote on the final deal now. Either in parliament with a free vote, or referendum.

 

[dickie davies]

there will not be a second referendum imo. leave would win if there was. you can't say its the only way because it isn't. who knows we might not even get a deal in which case we are out anyway. this election wasnt really fought on brexit, barely any of the parties even talked about it.

You really think that it would still be a vote to leave the EU!
The Scots would vote in numbers this time and quite a few people who voted to leave did so as a protest about what they felt was just shit politics. But following the last referendum and the constant fall out and uncertainty, I believe those people would fall in line to remain

May tried to keep the GE all about Brexit and this is where her campaign failed and Labour took advantage

 

[I'm With Stupid]

It's entirely normal for a party that's been in power for some time, ESPECIALLY through difficult times, to have waned in their popularity. I think it would be foolish to assume that the young, for example are now energised and engaged in politics. It may very well be they simply turned up to get their £28,000. I would probably have voted Labour myself in those circumstances.

Let's be honest, the Tories haven't been particularly popular throughout their stint in power. It was a massive surprise last time when they actually got a majority when all the polls were suggesting a hung parliament, and before that, it took the Lib Dems to get them into power.

 

[Blue Llama]

Corbyn got the same % of votes as Blair got in 97 when he won a landslide.

Andy Burnham is a red Tory traitor.i have more chance than that little shite. No chance.

Shaky ground there my friend but all is explained and your true colours uncovered by you calling Andy Burnham a Red Tory traitor.
First point Blair won by convincing middle England to trust him, something that Corbyn will never acheive. Second point he was up against mister no mark John Major. Third point is your history is slightly skewed to fit your argument. Blair got over 43% of the vote whilst Corbyn only managed 40%. Not a huge difference but try telling that to the Lib Dems who achieved 12 seats from 2.4m votes, 7.4% of the turn out and the SNP who got 35 seats from less than a million votes and 3% of the turn out. Point being the difference between a landslide and disaster in UK elections is always a small percentage. Dump Corbyn or lose the next election as well

 

[cibaman]

Try 2 months?

Seriously who knows. But I can't see a coalition government with a majority of 5 and no mandate for any particular Brexit "style", being a viable option going forward. So I wouldn't be at all surprised if another election is called soonish. The conservatives would not be sure of winning it this time, but there may be no other option.

If there's another election soon the tories will lose more seats and Corbyn will be PM.

 

[Cheadle_hulmeBlue]

You really think that it would still be a vote to leave the EU!
The Scots would vote in numbers this time and quite a few people who voted to leave did so as a protest about what they felt was just shit politics. But following the last referendum and the constant fall out and uncertainty, I believe those people would fall in line to remain

May tried to keep the GE all about Brexit and this is where her campaign failed and Labour took advantage

yes, it was the biggest turnout ever. if there was another referendum it would just cement the idea that remainers just wont accept the vote. keep having referendums until you get the result you want. the scots already voted in big numbers, and it made no difference. the majority of people accept brexit and would vote to leave again imo.

the polls have gone way in favour of brexit recently and most have accepted the result now, apart from the lib dems.

 

[Chippy_boy]

but what do we do if the result is the same/similar.

Who knows mate, who knows. My personal hope would be that the conservatives take on board the messages that can be drawn from this result and modify their manifesto to be more in line with what the majority want, i.e. an easing off of austerity and more emphasis on looking after the poor in our society and our public services. And if they did that, AND had a leader competent to take the message forward, they could win and win well.

It seems incredible to me that after 15 years of Labour successfully camping out in the middle ground with Blair and Brown (i.e. showing everyone how it should be done with 3 successive victories), the Tories still thought that playing to the right and taking on UKIP was the way forward? When May took over she made all those speeches about being there for everybody in society, including the poor, and her popularity shot up enormously. Bizarre that she forgot and instead decided to piss them all off.

But you're right. We could be in an era with two opposing sides, each entrenched in mutually incompatible positions, and neither able to get a majority.

 

[Chippy_boy]

If there's another election soon the tories will lose more seats and Corbyn will be PM.

Very possibly, but I would hope not - see my post above.

 

[bluemoonmatt]

Speaking as a Tory, I can assure you, Andy Burnham is about as far from being a Tory as we are from Mars.

Agree with this too, I'm getting tired of the boring old Tory lite rhetoric

 

[RandomJ]

but what do we do if the result is the same/similar.

We declare a king in the north and separate ourselves from the south. Simples.

 

[jonmcity]

The day after the last vote the leavers reneged on all their promises. The pic of the bus would remind them. Boris would be on the other side now in any case as he is just an opportunist. The financial argument for a free market just needs to be highlighted correctly and the xenophobic lies about EU migration outed.

 

[Chippy_boy]

We declare a king in the north and separate ourselves from the south. Simples.

Or we could apply to be the 51st state of America?

 

[RandomJ]

Or we could apply to be the 51st state of America?

Nah prefer the game of thrones solution.

 

[The perfect fumble]

Shaky ground there my friend but all is explained and your true colours uncovered by you calling Andy Burnham a Red Tory traitor.
First point Blair won by convincing middle England to trust him, something that Corbyn will never acheive. Second point he was up against mister no mark John Major. Third point is your history is slightly skewed to fit your argument. Blair got over 43% of the vote whilst Corbyn only managed 40%. Not a huge difference but try telling that to the Lib Dems who achieved 12 seats from 2.4m votes, 7.4% of the turn out and the SNP who got 35 seats from less than a million votes and 3% of the turn out. Point being the difference between a landslide and disaster in UK elections is always a small percentage. Dump Corbyn or lose the next election as well

I've been a member of the Labour party for years, you can ditch everything I ever say if you want, but believe me when I tell you, the Labour Party will never, ever, vote for new labour tories ever again! It was a blip, an aberration, it will not return, it was not the way forward, just a twenty year cul de sac, an meaningless exercise in triangulation.

 

[Cheadle_hulmeBlue]

Who knows mate, who knows. My personal hope would be that the conservatives take on board the messages that can be drawn from this result and modify their manifesto to be more in line with what the majority want, i.e. an easing off of austerity and more emphasis on looking after the poor in our society and our public services. And if they did that, AND had a leader competent to take the message forward, they could win and win well.

It seems incredible to me that after 15 years of Labour successfully camping out in the middle ground with Blair and Brown (i.e. showing everyone how it should be done with 3 successive victories), the Tories still thoughtplaying to the right and taking on UKIP was the way forward? When May took over she made all those speeches about being there for everybody in society, including the poor, and her popularity shot up enormously. Bizarre that she forgot and instead decided to piss them all off.

But you're right. We could be in an era with two opposing sides, each entrenched in mutually incompatible positions, and neither able to get a majority.

i think under any other leader the conservatives would have won a comfortable majority. the problems came when the issues about social care, the dementia tax. triple lock issues came about. get rid of those policies and as you say focus a bit more on investment, so in policing. i think they would win a majority. labour for how well they did haven't got anywhere near winning.