I think we are in danger of believing our own hype. The top 3 finished way above us in terms of points total last time and it's difficult to bridge that in one season; new players have to gel for a start. Plus Chelsea United and Arsenal have that all important experience.
My prediction would be 4th and I would be happy with that because our money plus CL football would be a powerful combination to push on.
Any trophy would be a welcome bonus and we have as good a shot at the 3 we are in as anyone else as we will have a strong squad and the top teams will give the CL priority as they always do.
However, if we were to sign another three or four stellar players whilst retaining the likes of Bellamy then 3rd might be on the cards.