Predictions on the referendum

How will politics change regardless of result? So many on each side slagging each other off could get tasty with in party fighting after.
 
Think it will be tight but I think leave. I don't have any strong leaning either way but I would guess leave 52% remain 48%.
 
Dave Ewing's Back 'eader said:
I dunno, George. The Scots Nats 'lost' their referendum 'cos the 'airy, lairy, scary stories of what would happen to the sky the day after they left, undid 'em. It might be the same with the InOut vote. The idea of WW3 and the bottom falling out of everything that moves might just give 'em the heebie-jeebies and get the X in the Cameron box. I'm still voting for both, but might change to an Out 'cos Mrs Ewing is being swayed by our offsprings to vote IN! It'll be mighty close, but I hope, either way, it is significant.
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I'm voting in but I remain fearful.
 
56% remain. When it comes to voting the fear of the unknown will be greater than the fear of sticking with what we know. Gove shuffled out in the next re-shuffle.
 
The perfect fumble said:
I hoping there are legions of silent inners not talking to the pollsters.
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Think thats quite likely and would be a similar situation to the Scottish referendum. I also think a majority of don't knows will vote in. My prediction is 53% in 47% leave. I will vote in, on balance because of the weight of economic opinion. I am equally unconvinced with either sides arguments about immigration. My heart tells me leave is a retrograde step and not compatible with what I think the UK should be - a leader within Europe and the rest of the world. Petty politics is temporary, leaving in my view is a much more permanent step.
 
I'm thinking lot of silent in voters I'll swing this, I'm a reluctant remain myself & haven't been banging on about it and think most of the noise is coming from an angry minority. Also the horrendously negative campaigning by Cameron will make a difference, yesterday the outright lies about pensions will swing some voters for sure.

Afterwards I'd love a Tory party split but as they are so desperate for power without principle I think they will stick together whilst stabbing each other in the back relentlessly until they get rid of Cameron.

Another thread really but we desperately need electoral reform
 
Having not met a single person who has stated they will be voting remain I think the Politicians have made a huge mistake in calling this referendum.
Working people rightly or wrongly have the perception Immigration has gone too far and this is their one chance to put a stop to it. They don't appear to be listening to the so called economic arguments being put forward by the remain campaign as they just don't believe a word they say. The daily scare stories seem to be getting more ridiculous by the day by the 22nd they will be straight from the Chemical Ali speech book!
The older voters who will definatly go out and vote seem to be largely in the Out camp and they will swing it. The polls will be wrong just like in the last election they have tried too hard and are polling a mixed demographic which is way more balanced than the group of voters who will actually vote.
The Bluemoon poll (remember the last election when the forum was accused of being full of RWNJ s and ended up being very representative) for me is pretty spot on,
57% in favour of out is my prediction.
 
whp.blue said:
Having not met a single person who has stated they will be voting remain I think the Politicians have made a huge mistake in calling this referendum.
Working people rightly or wrongly have the perception Immigration has gone too far and this is their one chance to put a stop to it. They don't appear to be listening to the so called economic arguments being put forward by the remain campaign as they just don't believe a word they say. The daily scare stories seem to be getting more ridiculous by the day by the 22nd they will be straight from the Chemical Ali speech book!
The older voters who will definatly go out and vote seem to be largely in the Out camp and they will swing it. The polls will be wrong just like in the last election they have tried too hard and are polling a mixed demographic which is way more balanced than the group of voters who will actually vote.
The Bluemoon poll (remember the last election when the forum was accused of being full of RWNJ s and ended up being very representative) for me is pretty spot on,
57% in favour of out is my prediction.
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I'll go with this prediction too, simply because of the overwhelming number that have said 'out' to me and others, from both sections of the
political divide.
 
Scottyboi said:
Would be crazy is it's that close, one half of the nation would be pissed.
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It won't be half because not everyone will vote
Some people shrug their shoulders and say "doesn't matter"

Mikejl said:
Afterwards I'd love a Tory party split but as they are so desperate for power without principle I think they will stick together whilst stabbing each other in the back relentlessly until they get rid of Cameron.
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That's just a normal day in the Conservative party

whp.blue said:
Having not met a single person who has stated they will be voting remain I think the Politicians have made a huge mistake in calling this referendum..
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My Brother who now lives in Devon is voting remain. It depends on what part of the country you live in and if you see lots of "EU money" coming into that area. I would think South Wales is also very pro EU
Also I believe the vast majority of students will vote remain. My Daughter (a uni student) has told me she is very much minority by voting out
 
Speaking to my 85 year old Grandad last weekend about this. He's been a sparky all his working life and has worked all over the world doing it. In the run up to the 1975 EEC referendum, he was working in Central London, Scotland and also back in Manchester. He was mixing with all walks of life, rich, poor, well educated, people who left school at 14 and went working in the pits, steel factories etc.
He told me a big majority of those he spoke to were for in favor of voting to stay out of the EEC. He, along with all his mates were the same.
He couldn't believe it when the results were announce that nearly 70% voted to remain. He's no conspiracy nut but to this date claims it was all exactly that, decided by the powers that be before a vote was cast.
He reckons this one will be exactly the same.
 
whp.blue said:
Having not met a single person who has stated they will be voting remain I think the Politicians have made a huge mistake in calling this referendum.
Working people rightly or wrongly have the perception Immigration has gone too far and this is their one chance to put a stop to it. They don't appear to be listening to the so called economic arguments being put forward by the remain campaign as they just don't believe a word they say. The daily scare stories seem to be getting more ridiculous by the day by the 22nd they will be straight from the Chemical Ali speech book!
The older voters who will definatly go out and vote seem to be largely in the Out camp and they will swing it. The polls will be wrong just like in the last election they have tried too hard and are polling a mixed demographic which is way more balanced than the group of voters who will actually vote.
The Bluemoon poll (remember the last election when the forum was accused of being full of RWNJ s and ended up being very representative) for me is pretty spot on,
57% in favour of out is my prediction.
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I was talking with my dad at the weekend and he was saying he has never spoken to anyone since, and no-one he knows knows anyone, who voted to stay in the Common Market back in 1975, yet it was a landslide 'stay' victory.

I reckon it will be 60-40 in favour of remain because we obviously have a large proportion of boring, lily-livered and easily scared members of the population. I just hope it's raining heavily on the day and most of these lot stay at home.
 
I was in Scotland in the weeks before the referendum vote and was convinced that Yes would win. The visible and audible evidence in city centres strongly suggested that there could be no other result. However, on the day before the vote I walked through the suburbs and was struck by how gentile and pristine everything was, gardens well tended and everything in order; there was also no evidence whatsoever of people voting Yes. It was then that I started to appreciate the reality: the middle classes are just like businesses, they're generally conservative and don't really want change, especially if it's likely to affect their mortgages and pensions. I suspect the vote will be remain by quite a margin (65%-70%), but with distinct geographical patterns.
 
willy eckerslike said:
I was talking with my dad at the weekend and he was saying he has never spoken to anyone since, and no-one he knows knows anyone, who voted to stay in the Common Market back in 1975, yet it was a landslide 'stay' victory.

I reckon it will be 60-40 in favour of remain because we obviously have a large proportion of boring, lily-livered and easily scared members of the population. I just hope it's raining heavily on the day and most of these lot stay at home.
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They are just the sort of specimens who would own umbrellas ;)

Actually, I voted to stay in last time but that was the EEC, of course, not the EU. I'd guess there are a few others on the forum who voted yes then but want out now.
 
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