Predictions on the referendum

Chippy_boy said:
I'll answer it for him.

The UK's economy will be knocked sideways. Since Friday when the Brexit camp pulled ahead in the polls, we've seen £76bn wiped off the value of FTSE 100. That's just the FTSE 100 - not the whole market - and that's just on a *possibility* that Brexit might win. The markets will crash if Brexit win, and if you think that's pure speculation, it isn't - there's very good reasons why. First, it means that we'll have years of uncertainty ahead with businesses not knowing what the trading relationship with Europe is going to be like and therefore unable to make strategic investment decisions. investments will be put on hold and growth will stall. We'll probably fall back into recession, at least in the short term. In the medium term, businesses that have invested in the UK so that they can export to Europe will review there strategies and some of them will decide to shut plants or move production overseas. If the reason they came to the UK was in part because the UK is in the EU and is a gateway to European exports then if that ceases to be the case, we can't expect all of these businesses to stay put, can we.

Professor Minford - just about the only notable economist the Brexit camp has managed to field - said in 2012, “Over time, if we left the EU, it seems likely that we would mostly eliminate manufacturing <from the UK>".

International confidence in the UK's economy will be dented and the value of the pound will fall considerably. Whilst this will actually help our exports, it will push up the costs of our raw materials, food etc. Inflation will rise, and we'll probably have to put up interest rates. Costs of mortgages will go up so people will have less money to spend and that will depress the economy further. Labour costs will increase, also fueled by a decline in EU migrants filling the low paid jobs, leading to increased labour shortage (we ALREADY have more vacancies in the economy than unemployment). HIgher costs makes our productivity even lower (it's already much lower than the world's leading economies), making our products less competitive and sales will decline. We'll struggle to meet current budget commitments (actually we'll simply fail) and since we don't want to increase borrowing (it's already perilously high and failing to keep it under control would result in our credit rating being downgraded and interest rates going higher still), we'd have to make even deeper cuts to public services and extend austerity for several years longer than planned.

If we are ever to recover from this, it will be through increased international (non-EU) trade, but it will take years to negotiate all of the trade deals we need and even then there's no guarantee that these currently non-existant deals will yield enough extra revenue to plug the gap.

On the EU side, they'll lose a chunk of exports to the UK since their goods will be much more expensive, both due to the exchange rate and the tariffs that will inevitably be applied. The UK's leaving will very likely fuel the desire for referendums in other countries, particularly the Netherlands and France. Conceivably, countries such as Italy which are already in a precipitous position could be pushed into bankruptcy. If the Italian banks were to fail, the amount of money needed to support them would be many times greater than that for Greece and with strained finances in Germany already (heightened by their loss of exports to the UK), they would have no choice but to allow Italy to leave the Euro and devalue. Greece would surely follow, and then Portugal and Ireland. The Euro would be dead. If that happens, the whole of the EU is thrown into turmoil and that alone would take decades to recover from.

I could go on.
Click to expand...

First class post Chippy!!
 
Prestwich_Blue said:
Can I remind people that there is already a thread for discussion of the issues and campaign. This one is simply about predictions of the outcome of the referendum itself.
Click to expand...

Good point, guilty as charged. It's hard enough for you died-in-the-wool Brexiters to control what's going on in 1 thread, let alone 2.
 
While I don't think either side have anything to be proud of in the campaign, I think the increasingly apocalyptic stuff being spouted by Cameron & Osborne is going to hurt them, both in terms of the result and their own careers.

I'm going 55/45 in favour of leaving.
 
Prestwich_Blue said:
While I don't think either side have anything to be proud of in the campaign, I think the increasingly apocalyptic stuff being spouted by Cameron & Osborne is going to hurt them, both in terms of the result and their own careers.

I'm going 55/45 in favour of leaving.
Click to expand...

That would be my guess too ... then there will be an interesting couple of years negotiating. Yes, negotiating, because that is what these people do. Over to the other thread.
 
I think this falls into this particular thread - Poll just released an hour ago - Interesting that this poll should come from a business centric publication.

Business Insider readers are backing a Brexit

The vast majority of Business Insider readers based in the United Kingdom believe that Britain should vote to leave the European Union on June 23.

Last week, we launched a poll asking readers: "Should the UK leave the European Union?"

Seven days later, the result speaks for itself. Out of 7,018 UK-based respondents, 4,691 said that Britain ought to leave the 28-nation bloc. This is approximately 67%.


http://uk.businessinsider.com/bi-eu-referendum-poll-63-want-brexit-2016-6
 
55/45 Remain. There's about 14% undecided at the moment, who will I think go 9-5 remain and swing it in the Remain camp's favour.
 
AlgarveBlu said:
I think this falls into this particular thread - Poll just released an hour ago - Interesting that this poll should come from a business centric publication.

Business Insider readers are backing a Brexit

The vast majority of Business Insider readers based in the United Kingdom believe that Britain should vote to leave the European Union on June 23.

Last week, we launched a poll asking readers: "Should the UK leave the European Union?"

Seven days later, the result speaks for itself. Out of 7,018 UK-based respondents, 4,691 said that Britain ought to leave the 28-nation bloc. This is approximately 67%.


http://uk.businessinsider.com/bi-eu-referendum-poll-63-want-brexit-2016-6
Click to expand...

"However, unlike polling firms, Business Insider was unable to ensure that the poll was representative of the British public."

Interesting stats, but since the "do nothing" camp are less likely to be bothered to participate, few conclusions can be drawn.
 
Chippy_boy said:
55/45 Remain. There's about 14% undecided at the moment, who will I think go 9-5 remain and swing it in the Remain camp's favour.
Click to expand...

Assuming they vote. There do seem to be a lot of people saying its too difficult to arrive at a decision.

51/49, no idea which way
 
waspish said:
Am I right in saying that if its a exit vote it could take up to 2 years and has to go to the European courts and they have to agree with it?
Click to expand...

I don't know about the European courts, but it has to be voted in parliamnet to become an act, as some commentators have said parliamemt could block an exit in a vote causing a constitutuional crisis
 
urban genie said:
I don't know about the European courts, but it has to be voted in parliamnet to become an act, as some commentators have said parliamemt could block an exit in a vote causing a constitutuional crisis
Click to expand...

Ah right So an out vote is really a might be out vote.
 
waspish said:
Ah right So an out vote is really a might be out vote.
Click to expand...

According to some, but they said that about a possible scotish exit from UK that parliammet would block it, but agine the chaos of basically flickimg the v's at the publics choice.
 
urban genie said:
I don't know about the European courts, but it has to be voted in parliamnet to become an act, as some commentators have said parliamemt could block an exit in a vote causing a constitutuional crisis
Click to expand...

If the public voted for Brexit and the remainer MPs tried to block it in parliament then they would completely undermine the entire foundations of the country, they'd be throwing out democracy and the wishes of the British public.

They'd risk serious, serious disorder if they did that.

What reason would there ever be to engage in political process again?

That would be an incredibly dangerous precedent to set, and I'm not sure they have the bottle, or stupidity, to do it.
 
RichardDunneOwnGoal said:
If the public voted for Brexit and the remainer MPs tried to block it in parliament then they would completely undermine the entire foundations of the country, they'd be throwing out democracy and the wishes of the British public.

They'd risk serious, serious disorder if they did that.

What reason would there ever be to engage in political process again?

That would be an incredibly dangerous precedent to set, and I'm not sure they have the bottle, or stupidity, to do it.
Click to expand...

They are suggesting leaving the EU but blocking leaving the single market, which in esscence would leave us oblidged to follow EU rules anyway.

I agree that if it's a leave vote parliamnet would be bang out of order to block it, the will of the people and all that.

Even as a someone in the remain camp , I think if it's an exit, thats the majorities chioce and needs to be abided by.
 
urban genie said:
I don't know about the European courts, but it has to be voted in parliamnet to become an act, as some commentators have said parliamemt could block an exit in a vote causing a constitutuional crisis
Click to expand...

Whereas what you say is true, the vast majority of MP's I think believe strongly in democracy (they'd likely not want to be MPs if they didn't!) so I think there would be zero chance of a majority in parliament voting to block the will of the people. Irrespective of whether or not a big majority of MPs want us to remain.

If we vote to leave, then we are out.
 
Most outers don't care about the economics they care about immigration and hate foreigners.

As such the vast right wing press, who are hammering over the top lies about immigration and migrants, will swing it to the out vote.

(The owners of the right wing press don't give a shit about immigrants they just don't like the E.U. because their laws prevent the owners from buying up every media outlet and creating monopolies).
 
argyle said:
Most outers don't care about the economics they care about immigration and hate foreigners.

As such the vast right wing press, who are hammering over the top lies about immigration and migrants, will swing it to the out vote.

(The owners of the right wing press don't give a shit about immigrants they just don't like the E.U. because their laws prevent the owners from buying up every media outlet and creating monopolies).
Click to expand...

That first paragraph is, quite frankly, as stupid as it is insulting
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Unread Posts

Don't have an account? Register now and see fewer ads!

SIGN UP
Back
Top