Predictions on the referendum

bluethrunthru said:
Not entirely sure I follow that...........
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The same voter psyche exists now as during the Scottish Referendum. Those favouring the status quo are less vocal than those wanting change, the undecideds will vote in favour of the status quo. Both probably true.

But the polls suggest that support for change is greater now in the EU referendum than at the equivalent point during the Scottish referendum. At this stage in the Scottish Referendum the polls were all predicting a NO victory, albeit by a smaller margin than the actual result. The current polls in the EU referendum are almost 50/50.

If the same pattern is repeated, there should be a win for the status quo, but by a smaller margin than in Scotland.
 
My head tells me that the Remains will win - at least 55% - the news this morning is like a rolling (orchestrated) Political Broadcast for remain and it is bound to shove the undecided into the status quo.

My heart hopes that a level of complacency sets in on the remain side that impacts their turnout and an equal level of resolve amongst the Leave side that mobilises their support to get out - and a surprise is sprung.
 
mcfc1632 said:
My head tells me that the Remains will win - at least 55% - the news this morning is like a rolling (orchestrated) Political Broadcast for remain and it is bound to shove the undecided into the status quo.

My heart hopes that a level of complacency sets in on the remain side that impacts their turnout and an equal level of resolve amongst the Leave side that mobilises their support to get out - and a surprise is sprung.
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Same
 
117 M34 said:
Almost guarantee that in one of the polling stations 200 fucking idiots will turn up to vote at 21:59 and then kick off that they couldn't vote - and bbc/itv news will just happen to be there
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Polling stations have been ordered to remain open in that case.
 
My prediction is that my 'Don't blame me, I voted OUT' tee shirt will be making an appearance by Saturday...
 
Haven't read the rest of the thread, but personally I think that due to neither side's ability to give hard, credible evidence in support of their case (probably more difficult to do so so in this situation than in any previous general election), then heuristics will play a big part.

Emotional plays can sway some, but both have these - percieved injustice on the part of the Outies and fear of the possible consequences of major upheaval from the Innies. Ultimately I think the effort required to change the status quo is (as usual) a much more burdensome task and this coupled with fear of the unknown will win out.

I'm calling a Remain win.
 
Chippy_boy said:
I think you've got some serious misalignment of your views and actual reality. Perhaps there is some corruption in the EU? Isn't there everywhere? But riddled with it? Where's the evidence for that? You're just spouting the usual cheap Brexit lines that are easy on the ear but without any substance. And regards the goal of political union, it might be the goal of some, but who are these people allegedly dragging the 28 countries in this direction? Are you suggesting there is some sort of covert conspiracy that's been going on for decades behind closed doors and with different participants changed every few years? What do they do when people leave, swear them to silence or threaten to kill them? You should be writing thrillers mate.

And even if the EU decides rightly and properly and for all good reasons that it ultimately wants full political union (which incidentally I am not so sure would be quite as terrible as most people imagine), we have the full right of opt out anyway. Heck, we can even leave the EU any time we like.

No, I'm afraid it is the Leave camp who are deluded. You've been sold a pack of lies, not only about how terrible the EU is, but also about the completely unrealistic vision for the UK outside it. All this "free to negotiate our own trade deals" rubbish. Has anyone actually bothered to explain how this will be done, how long it will take and how these deals will be better for the UK? Why massive trading blocks like China and the US will suddenly want to buy so many more things from us compared to now? Because that's what we'd need to do. No, and funny that, isn't it. It's another cheap line designed to con people into thinking post Brexit we'll be just fine, when in fact, we won't be.

The Brexit leaders are ideologically opposed to EU membership* but most of them are not stupid and know full well the consequences for the UK economy of leaving will be dire. But that doesn't get votes so they paint this lovely rosy, complete fantasy vision of how great it will be. Well more fool anyone who believes that. We'll lose hundreds of thousands of jobs, as a minimum, perhaps even more. The aqueeze on public spending and on the NHS will be far, far worse. It will take decades to get back the levels of prosperity we've tossed in the bin. Bring it on eh?

*Boris isn't. He's actually quite pro EU but is prepared to say anything to further his own personal agenda and fuck the rest of us. The man is evil.
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Spot on. This is genuinely scary. This is crazy. As for Johnson... well he's our answer to Donald Trump; which is to say that he's an attention seeking clown with not an ounce of self-awareness. Cynical and reckless fuckers with more hair than brain cells, those two. Their complete lack of sincerity would be funny if it weren't so dangerous.
 
willy eckerslike said:
I was talking with my dad at the weekend and he was saying he has never spoken to anyone since, and no-one he knows knows anyone, who voted to stay in the Common Market back in 1975, yet it was a landslide 'stay' victory.

I reckon it will be 60-40 in favour of remain because we obviously have a large proportion of boring, lily-livered and easily scared members of the population. I just hope it's raining heavily on the day and most of these lot stay at home.
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Still reckon we'll be about 60-40 to remain, with less than 10% of polling areas voting leave.
 
Looking a victory for the Remain camp: Sky Bet odds have plummeted to 1/6, from 1/3 earlier in the week.
 
Terrible weather in Greater London today apparently. You'd imagine that will affect turn out, not sure whether that will favour one side in particular.
 
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