SWP's back
Well-Known Member
- Joined
- 29 Jun 2009
- Messages
- 89,066
Here’s a good resource if you like that sort of thing mate:
https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president
President Joe Biden
- Thread starter journolud
- Start date
https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president
aguerrrroooooooooooo
Well-Known Member
- Joined
- 16 Feb 2016
- Messages
- 11,040
Cheers. I'm a bit of a stats nerd :)
FogBlueInSanFran
Well-Known Member
Hmm. If Arkansas is really a toss up Trump is in gigantic trouble. Relative to other trackers I’ve seen this one leans more heavily in favor of Biden. Hopefully (please God) it’s dead on.
aguerrrroooooooooooo
Well-Known Member
- Joined
- 16 Feb 2016
- Messages
- 11,040
Over the last few days I've noticed polls in general have started to lean over to biden more. The Tulsa farce has hurt trump and his appalling response to the BLM movement has started to shift opinions blue (Purely my opinion)
Make sure to check out the 538 polling average as well. They have a big explanation how it works but basically it's an average combined with some inferences on how states with less coverage will shake out based on similar results elsewhere. The best snapshot of the race at any given time imo.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/
FogBlueInSanFran
Well-Known Member
Fair enough. Enjoy your day with the gd.
I should note that I would not be at all opposed to a national ranked-choice primary system -- i.e. all state primaries held on one day, followed by a "narrowed-down" second national primary for the delegate count and nomination for each party. I don't know enough about the electoral process (pragmatically) to know how realistic such a plan might be.
Bigga
Well-Known Member
Now, in this section, I don't know if you've forgotten or have conveniently left it out that the MSM played a huge hand in the election results. When the MSM push a narrative to the people that watch TV, it's going to look like one 'real option', which is what they were intimating during the push for nomination.
Also, coincidentally, young people don't really get their news from TV, again which goes in line as to why Biden doesn't have that particular support.
So, in conclusion, I don't think Biden would have had the same result given the ranked choice voting system as many voters had Sanders second or third as favourite nominees. But, we know the history of involvement from Obama and co to snuff out the Sanders/ Progressive threat.
I'm not sure why you think Biden 'crushed' his opponents, like he himself believes without help!
Given the current status of the US and BLM movements, I absolutely do not believe (nor does anyone credible) that Sanders would have lost to #45. For one, he would be actively out with the people and making statements on a regular basis. And for two, his policies are some of the things non-voters want or agree with that Biden doesn't represent.
However Hasan and other more prominent and vocal Black people are right. At this point, Democrats have pretty much locked in the votes, so don't have to do anything for the poor, working class or BAME people. As before, it's been lip service. What's to say it won't be the same again? If nothing significant happens during Biden's term[should he win], there will, absolutely be a third party unless AOC can steer the ship her direction.
Yes, there's been no real traction for a third party outside of Roosevelt's attempt. But the times were very different then. Adjusting for inflation, broadly speaking, people were actually on similar wages or better, back then. We are worse off now, despite more wealth in the system! WTF?! The "broader middle ground" (which has grown since those times) has its own problems for the Dem Party as I'll respond to, shortly.
Yes, here down ballot races are super important and Progressives are winning more and more seats over their neoliberal counterparts. The question you have to ask here, is 'why?'.
This is the split you speak of and the split is bigger than Nancy "I'm a Progressive" Pelosi cares to admit and why she attempted to see off 'The squad' in the beginning. That third party WILL happen depending on what Biden and AOC do in the next four years.
And so, finally, to the "big tent" situation. This is where I believe the problem with pledging a vote before you know what will be done for you, creates problems. If you have a vested interest you will want that interest dealt with.
For the LGBTQ+ community, it's their rights, joining the military, within the military, trans ops and care etc.
Immigrants; wanting a pathway to citizenship, schooling, ridding of ICE, returning of citizens etc.
The working class; better paid jobs to not have to work two to make ends meet, having jobs that are more permanent than the gig economy or having working rights attached to that, having health care that makes sense etc.
The retired; wanting an extension to medicare, better funding for social care.
There's single parents, there's hospital funding, there's policing, there's the military, there's dealing with BAME issues, there's the forthcoming recession and this is just domestic!
And, yes, any incoming Gov will have to deal with these things, but when people know they may not get their wishes, they tend to threaten to withhold a vote and so someone else's nose may be put out of joint in getting to them within four years.
There's only so much candy to go around in "big tents".
The Lincoln Project are actually a group of Republicans who want the end of Trump. They know the long-term damage he can cause the party and have backed Biden. I know they'll go back to supporting Republicans who don't go by Trump's way of doing things in the future, but as of now glad they're on the correct side.
They do make great ads, though. Leave Trump absolutely fuming.
SWP's back
Well-Known Member
- Joined
- 29 Jun 2009
- Messages
- 89,066
Yeah I know who they are buddy, half of them have spent their careers getting GoP candidates elected and like you, in very pleased they’re on the “right” side also.