President Trump

[Grassland Blue]

He is deffo mad.
He is ignorant and stupid.
He is also the President of the most powerfull nation in the history of the world.

China is coming up on the rails......

 

[SilverFox2]

If - and it's a 50-50 proposition IMO - Trump does decide to get involved - the US will simply drop a bunch of bunker busters on Natanz and Fordow - the two hardened, underground facilities engaged in uranium enrichment.

There's no fucking way in hell that Trump sanctions anything beyond that.

And FWIW - I think that the US would be stupid not to drop those bunker busters.

Iran is a rogue terrorist state led by religious zealots - and if they ever get the bomb - they'll certainly use it against Israel - and possibly Sunni nations as well - or hell, who knows? - any other country that's not devoutly Shia Muslim.

Regarding the nuclear bomb, that technology is many years old. I don't know many other areas of science that have not progressed.
Why would the ability to harness nuclear power have stayed a secret over more than 50 years?

 

[gordondaviesmoustache]

China is coming up on the rails......

I’d personally say Xi was the most powerful man in the world, or at least he channels the power he has far more effectively and purposefully, and so he wields more power.

 

[BlueMoonAcrossThePond]

Regarding the nuclear bomb, that technology is many years old. I don't know many other areas of science that have not progressed.
Why would the ability to harness nuclear power have stayed a secret over more than 50 years?

It's not clear to me that you understand the issue.

It's not the knowledge about how to make a bomb that's worrisome - anyone can learn this - it's how extremely difficult, time consuming, and expensive it is to produce weapons-grade uranium that prevents most nations from producing nuclear weapons.

Obama fucked up big time letting North Korea get the bomb. It's a huge fucking mess - as they're going to develop ICBM technology next. A massively dangerous threat to the world - and one which could have been prevented.

 

[Blue Maverick]

Not. A. Chance.

It’ll be a series of 30,000lb MOABs to knock out facility infrastructure, access roads and tunnels, and hopefully reach deep into the mountain.

In addition, it wouldn’t surprise me if they took out the Supreme Leader, as REGIME CHANGE is the goal. The hope is for a return to the secular Iran of the Shah, but one wonders what is sucked into the vacuum if Khomeini is assassinated?!

They are saying conventional bombs even that big fucker won’t do it, they’ve built it that far down.

 

[BlueHammer85]

If - and it's a 50-50 proposition IMO - Trump does decide to get involved - the US will simply drop a bunch of bunker busters on Natanz and Fordow - the two hardened, underground facilities engaged in uranium enrichment.

There's no fucking way in hell that Trump sanctions anything beyond that.

And FWIW - I think that the US would be stupid not to drop those bunker busters.

Iran is a rogue terrorist state led by religious zealots - and if they ever get the bomb - they'll certainly use it against Israel - and possibly Sunni nations as well - or hell, who knows? - any other country that's not devoutly Shia Muslim.

Why don’t the US just supply them to Israel and use them as a proxy thus saving face for Trump.

 

[Blue Maverick]

Why don’t the US just supply them to Israel and use them as a proxy thus saving face for Trump.

I don’t think they have the platform to drop them, they’ve got the B2.

 

[BlueMoonAcrossThePond]

Why don’t the US just supply them to Israel and use them as a proxy thus saving face for Trump.

The bunker buster bombs are massive. There's only one airplane in the world capable of dropping these bombs - the B-2 Spirit stealth bomber - the most advanced, most secret airplane in the world.

No way the US is giving any nation a few B-2 Spirit stealth bombers.

 

[SilverFox2]

It's not clear to me that you understand the issue.

It's not the knowledge about how to make a bomb that's worrisome - anyone can learn this - it's how extremely difficult it is to produce weapons-grade uranium that prevents most nations from becoming nuclear powers.

Thanks for your clarification.

I maintain they have had the time since the first bomb happened to update their methods to concentrate the various isotopes and other ingredients.
If not why not because every other science and chemical process has improved.

However, you may be right and I am incapable of really understanding the complexity of the process.

 

[MillionMilesAway]

They are saying conventional bombs even that big fucker won’t do it, they’ve built it that far down.

I thought that there was a general belief that the big bombs would essentially collapse the mountain, blocking anything in, and at the very least are likely to wreck the balance of the equipment needed.

 

[TonyM]

Not. A. Chance.

It’ll be a series of 30,000lb MOABs to knock out facility infrastructure, access roads and tunnels, and hopefully reach deep into the mountain.

In addition, it wouldn’t surprise me if they took out the Supreme Leader, as REGIME CHANGE is the goal. The hope is for a return to the secular Iran of the Shah, but one wonders what is sucked into the vacuum if Khomeini is assassinated?!

Americans and regime change. Like peanut butter and jelly.

Has it ever worked without making the people of the country significantly worse off? Serious question.

 

[BlueMoonAcrossThePond]

Thanks for your clarification.

I maintain they have had the time since the first bomb happened to update their methods to concentrate the various isotopes and other ingredients.
If not why not because every other science and chemical process has improved.

However, you may be right and I am incapable of really understanding the complexity of the process.

>> However, you may be right and I am incapable of really understanding the complexity of the process.
You just aren't up to speed on this issue - you're certainly capable of understanding! :-)

Iran has indeed had the time, money and investment to do so. And they're either months away - or years away - depending on which intelligence you believe - from having enough fissile material to make a bomb. The two main (or maybe only? - I'm not sure) uranium enrichment plants in Iran are Natanz and Fordow - hardened underground facilities out of reach of all conventional weapons bar the US bunker busters.

Take those facilities out - something that will require US action - and it sets the Iranian nuclear program back years if not decades - though this last point, I guess, is somewhat controversial (beats me why though - I haven't read any of the intelligence backing this point).

 

[Blue Maverick]

I thought that there was a general belief that the big bombs would essentially collapse the mountain, blocking anything in, and at the very least are likely to wreck the balance of the equipment needed.

But only for a few months, then they could be back up and running, they reckon it’s 100 metered down or so but they could collapse but to be certain a tactical nuke woukd be better, they wanted to use them in Afghan in the mountains but Bush was persuaded not to.

 

[BlueMoonAcrossThePond]

I thought that there was a general belief that the big bombs would essentially collapse the mountain, blocking anything in, and at the very least are likely to wreck the balance of the equipment needed.

Even more so - if the US were involved - they'd drop bunker buster bomb after bunker buster bomb after bunker buster bomb - nothing would be left of the facility.

 

[MillionMilesAway]

Even more so - if the US were involved - they'd drop bunker buster bomb after bunker buster bomb after bunker buster bomb - nothing would be left of the facility.

yeah, that's how I saw it. It doesn't matter if it doesn't blow up the facility if you can bury it under a mountainside and damage the structure of what's underground.

 

[BlueHammer85]

Americans and regime change. Like peanut butter and jelly.

Has it ever worked without making the people of the country significantly worse off? Serious question.

Grenada 83, Panama 89, Japan and Germany post WW2, Italy and France early Cold War.
Iraq can’t declare as worked but how many millions by now would have been killed under Saddam and the internal fractions that was rising.

 

[TonyM]

Grenada 83, Panama 89, Japan and Germany post WW2, Italy and France early Cold War.
Iraq can’t declare as worked but how many millions by now would have been killed under Saddam and the internal fractions that was rising.

I can't imagine that Iraq would have lost so many people under Saddam.

The Cold War was an example of what is probably the best policy in that you fight proxy wars and let the country implode rather than directly attacking.

I'd argue that the best offense is "mutual respect" over a long period. For example Israel being allowed to have Settlers in Palestine is not mutual respect to anyone.

 

[JASR]

No way the US is giving any nation a few B-2 Spirit stealth bombers.

As they’ve only got 22 21 of them themselves…

At some point in the future the B-21 will be active, but that’s awhile off.

 

[SilverFox2]

>> However, you may be right and I am incapable of really understanding the complexity of the process.
You just aren't up to speed on this issue - you're certainly capable of understanding! :-)

Iran has indeed had the time, money and investment to do so. And they're either months away - or years away - depending on which intelligence you believe - from having enough fissile material to make a bomb. The two main (or maybe only? - I'm not sure) uranium enrichment plants in Iran are Natanz and Fordow - hardened underground facilities out of reach of all conventional weapons bar the US bunker busters.

Take those facilities out - something that will require US action - and it sets the Iranian nuclear program back years if not decades - though this last point, I guess, is somewhat controversial (beats me why though - I haven't read any of the intelligence backing this point).

Another maybe, perhaps the current technology has actually been developed to produce the necessary recipe for a bomb much more efficiently at a different plant and its older methods are working but redundant.

In the chemical industry older plant is usually left where it is full of contamination. An example is Ciba Geigy leaving Sheikh M to decontaminate even the soil before building our Academy.

Incidentally, I can understand if there is full traceability on the raw materials needed, but stopping it's arrival in Iran may be impossible.

 

[BlueHammer85]

I can't imagine that Iraq would have lost so many people under Saddam.

Human Rights Watch estimated that Saddam's regime was responsible for the murder or disappearance of 250,000 to 290,000 Iraqis.