Russian invasion of Ukraine

That's not what has been said and repeated last night by Ukraine, so what are you basing your level of certainty on?
He was equally certain the Russians wouldn’t invade at all right up until they did. On that basis don’t be surprised if Ukraine re-establishes sovereignty over the Donbas and Crimea by the end of it.
 
For what purpose?
Putin needs a form of victory for the home crowd if he can say they went in and have made the area ‘safe’ it’s not been for nothing. False flag attack against Belarus means their army goes In by then Russia have regrouped and stocks built back up and can say look we go to protect the area.
 
Putin needs a form of victory for the home crowd if he can say they went in and have made the area ‘safe’ it’s not been for nothing. False flag attack against Belarus means their army goes In by then Russia have regrouped and stocks built back up and can say look we go to protect the area.
Putin's got the problem of justifying to thousands of families why their husbands/sons etc are not ever coming home.

The longer this goes on, Putin's position weakens
 

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