Russian invasion of Ukraine

Imteresting economic analysis:

Russia is fucked, Germany is in deep trouble and has dismantled huge petrochemical plants and moved them to Louisiana in the hope of avoiding the crunch in a year and a half's time.
It also kind of makes sense for the German offshoot of Gazprom to start repairing the Nord Stream pipelines just in case.
Russian oil sales are precarrious at best and sanctions ratchet up in the new year making it harder to insure vessels carrying Russian oil. If the oil stops flowing it bungs up and fractures as water expands. Who fixes them? Not Russians, western oil companies who have left and who fixed them last time they froze and broke in 1992. Worst case, £100bn of world oil capacity coukd just about to vanish sending the price rocketing...
 
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£100bn of world oil capacity coukd just about to vanish sending the price rocketing...
it’s not the lack of Russian oil that would send the price rocketing
The shortfall can easily be made up from the rest of the world, but the issue is transportation
Oil is currently at it’s lowest cost for years, but we’re not seeing that at the pumps due to the price of shipping
 

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