Russian invasion of Ukraine

[AlgarveBlu]

Heroic work of first responders from a russian a missile strike - hope he made it

 

[Iassel]

Secondly, if you think Putin needs a "false flag" to justify war crimes, ask yourself why he didn't bother before launching an illegal fascist war of aggression, then following it up with mass killings, torture and rape of civilians.

Talk of nuclear strikes are clearly side of the mark, it is quite clear now that it was the only bluff card Putin had, his bluff was called and his pockets are empty…..

The only chance for a nuclear strike would be if things were going so catastrophically that Ukraine was going to cross the border and Putins position would be so untenable in that scenario that someone would take him out before launching.

What strikes in empty fields on the outskirts of Moscow are useful for though is the mobilisation of troops….

To date Putin has been scraping dry the far flung corners of Russia for cannon fodder and as anyone who has ever met a Russian knows, nobody in the main cities give two shits about their comrades from the outer reaches.

The only time any of them would think twice about the war would be once kids are taken off the streets of Moscow or St Petersburg, which Putin now wants to do, but needs a pretence, even if a flimsy one.

Now it could be a huge coincidence that a bunch of drones appeared outside Moscow and did £50 of damage at exactly the time Putin wants to start pillaging the middle classes for their kids, but then he does rather have form in this area…

 

[mosssideblue]

For those on here still, more than a year on, talking up "false flags" and "tactical nukes"

Firstly, Putin wants you to do this. The fear of escalation has held back Western support and by constantly talking it up, Russia desperately hopes that will continue. You're doing Putin's work for him.

Secondly, if you think Putin needs a "false flag" to justify war crimes, ask yourself why he didn't bother before launching an illegal fascist war of aggression, then following it up with mass killings, torture and rape of civilians.

Thirdly, if provoking Putin results in nuclear strikes, why hasn't he done so already? His army was humiliated in Kyiv and Kharkiv. His navy lost its flagship. His bridge to Crimea was blown up. He's lost more tanks than any army ever has in history.

Russia nuclear threats are empty. They're made in the hope that across the Western world, in discussions like these, they discourage giving Ukraine the support it needs to win.

It is possible to acknowledge that putin won't use tact nucs whilst understanding why he would want to convince others he might, particularly his own.

I don't believe anyone posting on here has sufficient influence on NATO doctrine regarding giving or witholding support

 

[AlgarveBlu]

Talk of nuclear strikes are clearly side of the mark, it is quite clear now that it was the only bluff card Putin had, his bluff was called and his pockets are empty…..

The only chance for a nuclear strike would be if things were going so catastrophically that Ukraine was going to cross the border and Putins position would be so untenable in that scenario that someone would take him out before launching.

What strikes in empty fields on the outskirts of Moscow are useful for though is the mobilisation of troops….

To date Putin has been scraping dry the far flung corners of Russia for cannon fodder and as anyone who has ever met a Russian knows, nobody in the main cities give two shits about their comrades from the outer reaches.

The only time any of them would think twice about the war would be once kids are taken off the streets of Moscow or St Petersburg, which Putin now wants to do, but needs a pretence, even if a flimsy one.

Now it could be a huge coincidence that a bunch of drones appeared outside Moscow and did £50 of damage at exactly the time Putin wants to start pillaging the middle classes for their kids, but then he does rather have form in this area…

On the assumption we are all talking about tactical nuclear weapons here to be used on the battlefield rather than conventional nuclear weapons to destroy cities etc - what is the upside from a military strategical point of view for the russian army to use tactical nukes when the battlefield lines are effectively spread over a distance the size of Portugal?

Assuming its around the 5 kiloton that is effective in around a 1.5 km radius at most. I can't see anyone in the control bunker advising their use for very limited strategical gain versus the almost guaranteed involvement of NATO/U.S. retaliation on say their Black Sea fleet. It's all about risk/reward ratios both militarily and politically and I just can't see the justification on both fronts for russia. putins' mental well being may be the only trigger for an event but I don't think he's that gone in the head yet.

 

[grunge]

For those on here still, more than a year on, talking up "false flags" and "tactical nukes"

Firstly, Putin wants you to do this. The fear of escalation has held back Western support and by constantly talking it up, Russia desperately hopes that will continue. You're doing Putin's work for him.

Secondly, if you think Putin needs a "false flag" to justify war crimes, ask yourself why he didn't bother before launching an illegal fascist war of aggression, then following it up with mass killings, torture and rape of civilians.

Thirdly, if provoking Putin results in nuclear strikes, why hasn't he done so already? His army was humiliated in Kyiv and Kharkiv. His navy lost its flagship. His bridge to Crimea was blown up. He's lost more tanks than any army ever has in history.

Russia nuclear threats are empty. They're made in the hope that across the Western world, in discussions like these, they discourage giving Ukraine the support it needs to win.

Depends on what you think the aim of a false flag is. Escalating or building local support for the actions being taken. There have been some things that a clear false flag’s designed to generate support or to create excuses ( drone attack on the Kremlin for example )

 

[feedmpenzaandhewillscore]

On the assumption we are all talking about tactical nuclear weapons here to be used on the battlefield rather than conventional nuclear weapons to destroy cities etc - what is the upside from a military strategical point of view for the russian army to use tactical nukes when the battlefield lines are effectively spread over a distance the size of Portugal?

Assuming its around the 5 kiloton that is effective in around a 1.5 km radius at most. I can't see anyone in the control bunker advising their use for very limited strategical gain versus the almost guaranteed involvement of NATO/U.S. retaliation on say their Black Sea fleet. It's all about risk/reward ratios both militarily and politically and I just can't see the justification on both fronts for russia. putins' mental well being may be the only trigger for an event but I don't think he's that gone in the head yet.

The other thing to consider is the proximity of Russian forces to Ukrainian forces. They are maybe within a few hundred metres proximity of each other in some places, using a tactical nuke would kill their soldiers not to mention the fall out for anyone in the vicinity. It’s not a good way to spur on the troops to keep pushing forward across a nuclear wasteland where some of their comrades have been vaporised.

 

[BlueAnorak]

 

[kaz7]

Was this a false flag attack? Suspect only one injured if they sent so many in

 

[AlgarveBlu]

The other thing to consider is the proximity of Russian forces to Ukrainian forces. They are maybe within a few hundred metres proximity of each other in some places, using a tactical nuke would kill their soldiers not to mention the fall out for anyone in the vicinity. It’s not a good way to spur on the troops to keep pushing forward across a nuclear wasteland where some of their comrades have been vaporised.

I think russian generals and mercenary groups crossed the Rubicon on that one early days in the war, there's volumes of testimony from russian soldiers and their families complaining about their comrades being left to rot for months where they fell. They were even ordered to unearth dangerous radioactive soil and dust for trenches in the Red Forest around the power plant exposing themselves to radiation poisoning.

The russian political and military hierarchy are playing by a different set of rules and moral codes that are unrecognisable to us, which is why they are a hard read on what their next steps will be. Still don't think they will do it though.

 

[KS55]

Was this a false flag attack? Suspect only one injured if they sent so many in

Yes. I think this is for internal consumption to persuade the Russian population that Russia is in mortal danger. The story at home is that the west wants to invade.