Russian invasion of Ukraine

Mr Kobayashi said:
Or the purpose of the war was to limit the spread of western democracy and to maintain their grip on power. It's a kleptocratic regime. Letting Ukraine become a liberal, western facing country without doing something to stop them would threaten the existence of the oligarchy.

If you are able to achieve Plan B after Plan A fails, it usually counts as a win.

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But the 'western' president of Ukraine is now stronger and more well supported in Ukraine than before the war and other countries in close proximity are joining nato so it's done the exact opposite
 
117 M34 said:
But the 'western' president of Ukraine is now stronger and more well supported in Ukraine than before the war and other countries in close proximity are joining nato so it's done the exact opposite
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I just cannot see how, if stumps were draw today, how anyone could characterise Russia as winners, especially given their objectives and expectations at the start of the war.

It would be akin to City starting a PL campaign, having a points deduction half way through the season, a two year transfer embargo, being hit by a massive financial penalty, losing some of our best players in January, then avoiding relegation on the last day and describing it as a great season.
 
BobKowalski said:
Russia already had Crimea and parts of the East was under de facto Russian control through proxies. The purpose of the invasion was to control the whole of Ukraine and was meant to last a week. It wasn’t even technically a war but a ‘Special Military Operation’.

Yet here we are two years later with the likelihood of the conflict going into a third year and beyond, neighbouring countries joining NATO and Russia becoming China’s economic woman.

Struggling to see a Russian ‘win’ here.
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There clearly isn't one, they have badly damaged Ukraine and caused tens of thousands of deaths. But Russia have not benefited at all in any way from this, just lost out in so many areas, its been a disastrous miscalculation by Putin and his cohorts.
 
ChicagoBlue said:
Putin feels he cannot allow EUROPE & NATO to control the Black Sea and Russia’s southern flank, especially if he has any dreams of a Soviet-era Russian future.

Europe cannot allow Russia to take the largest country in Europe, take complete control of the Black Sea and consolidate this region with his support in Belarus, and put Russia on Poland’s doorstep…with the Baltics next on the agenda to ensure St Petersburg is safer and he can exert greater control over his western flank. Kaliningrad is a strategic nuclear outpost on the Baltic Sea, giving the Russian Navy quick, ice free, access to all of Northern Europe and the Russian ground-based nuclear arsenal its most dangerous touch point with Europe & NATO.

As it is, LLE are essential as a European annex surrounded by Belarus and Russia. With Kaliningrad to the South and the only European access being the 65 km Suwalki Gap from Poland, it feels almost natural for Russia to want that land. Therefore, it is not lost on me that long “neutral” Finland, wishing to protect their massive, and massively vulnerable, eastern border with Russia, is now seeking fast track NATO membership.

The Murmansk peninsula is not only the HQ for the Russian Navy’s Northern Fleet, due to Murmansk’s ice free port and its quick access to Northern Europe, America and patrol of the entire Polar cap. Russia has made it a focus of its western-faced nuclear arsenal, and thus it is very wary of it being very easily cut off from the rest of Russia with only a minor (in terms of distance) insurgence from Finland, with the major route to the region coming from St Petersburg to the south, which is itself very vulnerable from any European movement eastwards.

In that larger context, it is imperative that the USA& Europe support, protect and fund the defence of the Ukrainian homeland and repel and expel Russia. Such a coordinated action would send the serious message that Russia will face a strong, united, deadly NATO with any Russian aggression.

Now is not the time to show any lack of resolve towards Ukraine. Pay now or pay much, much more later!
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Finland aren't as vulnerable as you think, they stood up well to soviet aggression in 1940. They would do the same today I am sure especially after the abyssmal showing of Russian military capabilities in Ukraine. The mask of Russian superpower has well and truly slipped, as am sure it's been a real eye-opener for western militaries to see at first hand how poorly equipped and trained the Russian military actually is. They have probably learnt more in the last two years than the last 40 since the end of the afghan soviet war.
 
Postman Pep said:
Lol. Is that all you've got. Smears and no links.
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BlueAnorak said:
An article on the Russian perspective on peace negotiations (there are many more):
Guess who said Niet?
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Oh look I posted a link on the subject from Reuters about the Russian Chief negotiators thoughts on the subject on p571
It was Putin who said no, NOT Zelensky.
So yes a deal was negotiated but the Ukraine negotiators OPINION on why it failed is bollox - as is the conspiracy theory that has grown up around his OPINION.
 
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Mr Kobayashi said:
They won't have much choice if their military aid is cut off. The Ukrainians don't get to decide that.

It's not land they control or are currently able to get back. It's a bit like trying to pretend you can get your house back from the mafia.

Where are the military experts that think Ukraine can mount a serious offensive in summer 2024?

It's just bravado and bluster.
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So you think Russia are going to roll west and take Ukraine?? Clearly they are not capable of doing this even against limited Ukrainian defense.
 
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