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Russian invasion of Ukraine
- Thread starter feedmpenzaandhewillscore
- Start date
Scottyboi
Well-Known Member
From "The Analyst":
FRONTLINE UPDATE/STRATEGY SHIFTING?
Before we get to deep, Ukraine announced last night that Valeri Zaluzhnyi has been appointed Ambassador to the Court of St James - the official title for Ambassador to the UK. That’s welcome news and I personally look forward to it, it’s exciting news knowing someone so experienced and knowledgeable will work closely with those who want to help Ukraine.
In the north above Lyman-Pershy the Russians have advanced to the Oskil River - however it’s a major obstacle if they plan to cross it. Some suggestion is that they don’t intend to. It’s been rumoured that the Oskil is their ideal ‘new frontier’ line in this sector generally, offering defensive options for them as much as it does Ukraine. The truth is that the west bank of the river is considerably higher than the east bank, with high limestone cliffs, giving the Ukrainians a significant advantage.
Generally speaking there has been little movement in the area all the way down to Avdivka. Ukraine clearly has ammunition it didn’t have a week ago and its impact has been noticeable.
In the Avdivka area, Russians have started to reach the first of the prepared Ukrainian defence lines, which are on hills behind a river - not too different from that described above.
The advance from Avdivka has largely stopped, Russians complain their own EW is interfering with their drones, and that there are huge issues over combat coordination and units not knowing what other units are doing. Two years on and they still haven’t worked this out.
Ukraine seems to be using the Russian lethargy and lack of follow up to put in a defence line that wasn’t there before.
Elsewhere things have been static.
Strategic shifts in Europe have started to cause some to fall into one of two camps. President Macron is clearly alarmed by something. His ‘there are no red lines in supporting Ukraine’, have been parried by Medvedev’s ‘well then we have no red lines regarding France’. That’s mostly just rhetoric but it means France has been heard loud and clear. Macron is making a massive effort to convince France it has to get off its butt and do something. Two years late but he’s there at last.
So the question is what’s rattled him?
On one side the argument is the Ukrainians are struggling to hold on and they need men (and they still haven’t resolved that issue which is frankly outrageous), and they need LOTS more ammo than they have.
On the other side, Ukraine is doing well under the circumstances but needs obviously more help. The threat though is in a major Russian summer offensive post-mud season, that they are preparing even now. With some 40-80,000 troops and equipment massing for months unused, training in Luhansk.
Others think that these are just rolling training sites that feed the meat grinder and that the Russians don’t have the ability to mount such a devastating offensive.
As with all these things it will likely be a mix of both - an offensive being planned but not quite on the scale imagined, but dangerous nonetheless.
There’s also growing concern about the lack of missile strikes in Ukraine. I have often said why this would happen and I’ll say it again.
First the number of launchers is restricted and the defences are strong, it’s not cost effective and parts for the missiles are getting harder to come by. The loss of so many A50-U AWACS planes has also hindered attacking as they were used to map Ukraine’s territory and likely defence sites. However Russian drones do try much the same thing, less successfully.
Secondly they are holding back for the airbases.
As soon as F-16’s appear those airbases are going to get hammered.
I don’t know what the Ukrainians are doing to mitigate this but it had better be big and cleverly effective. It’s going to take imagination and some serious defences to keep those aircraft intact on the ground and their runways operational. This is the F-16’s weakest link and always has been. That’s why the Gripen would have been a far better fit. It may still be.
So we have interesting months ahead.
FRONTLINE UPDATE/STRATEGY SHIFTING?
Before we get to deep, Ukraine announced last night that Valeri Zaluzhnyi has been appointed Ambassador to the Court of St James - the official title for Ambassador to the UK. That’s welcome news and I personally look forward to it, it’s exciting news knowing someone so experienced and knowledgeable will work closely with those who want to help Ukraine.
In the north above Lyman-Pershy the Russians have advanced to the Oskil River - however it’s a major obstacle if they plan to cross it. Some suggestion is that they don’t intend to. It’s been rumoured that the Oskil is their ideal ‘new frontier’ line in this sector generally, offering defensive options for them as much as it does Ukraine. The truth is that the west bank of the river is considerably higher than the east bank, with high limestone cliffs, giving the Ukrainians a significant advantage.
Generally speaking there has been little movement in the area all the way down to Avdivka. Ukraine clearly has ammunition it didn’t have a week ago and its impact has been noticeable.
In the Avdivka area, Russians have started to reach the first of the prepared Ukrainian defence lines, which are on hills behind a river - not too different from that described above.
The advance from Avdivka has largely stopped, Russians complain their own EW is interfering with their drones, and that there are huge issues over combat coordination and units not knowing what other units are doing. Two years on and they still haven’t worked this out.
Ukraine seems to be using the Russian lethargy and lack of follow up to put in a defence line that wasn’t there before.
Elsewhere things have been static.
Strategic shifts in Europe have started to cause some to fall into one of two camps. President Macron is clearly alarmed by something. His ‘there are no red lines in supporting Ukraine’, have been parried by Medvedev’s ‘well then we have no red lines regarding France’. That’s mostly just rhetoric but it means France has been heard loud and clear. Macron is making a massive effort to convince France it has to get off its butt and do something. Two years late but he’s there at last.
So the question is what’s rattled him?
On one side the argument is the Ukrainians are struggling to hold on and they need men (and they still haven’t resolved that issue which is frankly outrageous), and they need LOTS more ammo than they have.
On the other side, Ukraine is doing well under the circumstances but needs obviously more help. The threat though is in a major Russian summer offensive post-mud season, that they are preparing even now. With some 40-80,000 troops and equipment massing for months unused, training in Luhansk.
Others think that these are just rolling training sites that feed the meat grinder and that the Russians don’t have the ability to mount such a devastating offensive.
As with all these things it will likely be a mix of both - an offensive being planned but not quite on the scale imagined, but dangerous nonetheless.
There’s also growing concern about the lack of missile strikes in Ukraine. I have often said why this would happen and I’ll say it again.
First the number of launchers is restricted and the defences are strong, it’s not cost effective and parts for the missiles are getting harder to come by. The loss of so many A50-U AWACS planes has also hindered attacking as they were used to map Ukraine’s territory and likely defence sites. However Russian drones do try much the same thing, less successfully.
Secondly they are holding back for the airbases.
As soon as F-16’s appear those airbases are going to get hammered.
I don’t know what the Ukrainians are doing to mitigate this but it had better be big and cleverly effective. It’s going to take imagination and some serious defences to keep those aircraft intact on the ground and their runways operational. This is the F-16’s weakest link and always has been. That’s why the Gripen would have been a far better fit. It may still be.
So we have interesting months ahead.
Gorton_Tubster
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I have sort of lost touch with this conflict of late. It does seem though that Russia are just playing the waiting game, waiting for the West to give up, waiting for their online exploits to take their effect, waiting for the Russian war economy to get up to speed, etc. Ukraine feels like a lost cause right now.
BlueAnorak
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Vudeo Update:
cleavers
Moderator
Are these on Ukraine side or russian side of frontline ?Big explosions in Skadovsk,Kherson Region...Left Bank.
Also explosions in Tokmak and Melitopol,both Zaporizhzhia Region.
Slava Ukraini.
"You've have lost touch with this conflict of late",your words.I have sort of lost touch with this conflict of late. It does seem though that Russia are just playing the waiting game, waiting for the West to give up, waiting for their online exploits to take their effect, waiting for the Russian war economy to get up to speed, etc. Ukraine feels like a lost cause right now.
So how do you come to your later opinion or is that what you would like to happen ?
And if Ukraine is allowed to become a lost cause, the rest of Europe should worry .
Russian mate...Left Bank.Are these on Ukraine side or russian side of frontline ?
Slava Ukraini.
cleavers
Moderator
It sounds like russia foiled an IS plot on a moscow synogogue earlier this week, so maybe some similar intel ?Something expected to happen in Moscow over the weekend.
Nothing to do with Ukraine or any other military.
Slava Ukraini.