From "The Analyst":
NATO, STRATEGIC AMBIGUITY, TURNING THE TIDE
The NATO alliance in Europe has started to wake up to the threat of a post-Ukraine defeat and what would mean if it was allowed to happen.
President Macron, speaking at a rapidly organised Ukraine support summit in Paris, made the statement that France had no more ‘red lines’ in respect of Russia and that if necessary it would deploy troops to stop Ukraine loosing. Russia reacted with the usual nuclear threats.
Several of the other NATO members rushed to disagree - the Germans nearly wet their pants at the mere thought of it, while Poland raced to support the idea. Britain took its time to think about it and said it was probably best not to do that but you, know things can change.
There are two reasons France has to take the lead.
Firstly it is the only nuclear weapons state on the mainland and in the EU. It’s the only one with tactical as well as strategic nuclear capabilities.
The UK has pretty much only a strategic deterrent, and it’s something of a last resort.
Secondly it has probably the most effective army, navy and air force in the EU and on the continent. Germany’s army is so dysfunctional as to be a waste of space at present.
Poland is rapidly joining France in terms of capabilities and there is great strength in Finland and Sweden combined. The British Army is not what it was, but is small and capable. The RAF is far too small and would struggle to defend British air space let alone involve itself in deeper conflict. The Royal Navy would also struggle to defend from a Russian submarine offensive.
Those things aside these pronouncements are based on taking action in a world where Trump is reelected and the US disengages from Europe. Putin and his predecessors have dreamed of this since 1945.
Macron’s aim is, with other members of NATO and the EU, to create such ambiguity that it clouds the Kremlin’s ability to determine what constitutes the point NATO (or the EU/ or individual members) might - and I stress MIGHT - actually do something. It puts on the table an option and a possibility that’s never been there before.
It was always understood that France would use tactical nuclear weapons on the Soviets if they crossed the River Rhine. That was their last line.
That line may now have moved a long way East.
That we don’t know where is entirely the point. That some say they might intervene, some they probably won’t and some they certainly would if provoked enough, is about as strategically unambiguous as you can get.
The EU and the European/Canadian parts of the NATO alliance are a significant military power when acting together, even without America. France sees itself as the leader of that potential scenario. Germany can’t be even if it wanted to, and much as Britain would like to be, its stupid divorce from the EU has excluded it from contention and its position as leadership contender ended. It’s in danger of being the hanger-on.
As NATO (excluding the US) works more closely - especially as the EU ramps up ammunition production, European leadership is being strengthened.
Finally they get it. And this year, having crossed the gap with external purchases of ammunition, EU sources are now providing just enough to make good and by August will be meeting targets set last year. By late next year the EU ammo supply in key 155mm shells will reach 2.8 million per year -matching Russia and its allies. And the European economies are doing this without breaking a sweat. Much the same goes for every other aspect of military production. For the average man in the street this is having little or no effect on their lives.
You can’t say the same for Russia. It has had to break the economy and put it on a war footing just to keep where it is. It’s become so desperately dependent on China for loans - the Chinese Yuan loans made to Russian businesses have made it the second largest traded currency in the world for the first time ever - (the USD still accounts for 85% of global currency trades, the Yuan a little over 5%, the Euro a
little under 5%).
Continues:
This has had a terminal effect on the value of the Rouble. Nobody in Russia borrows money at 20% when they can borrow it in Yuan at 6%. The rouble is barely trading anywhere - nobody wants it except ordinary Russians - and only because they’re made to use it.
Russia cannot compete with the EU/ NATO even excluding America. It’s in dire economic trouble, bouncing along the bottom of the proverbial barrel to do what it’s doing.
2024 will see Ukraine on the defensive and it will lose territory. But come 2025 Russia will have passed the point it can win, as the weight of long dormant Euro-NATO economies start to produce more and more faster and faster, feeding Ukraine what it needs to permanently and conclusively turn the tide.
Slava Ukraini !