Russian invasion of Ukraine

From "The Analyst":

HOW WILL AID GET TO UKRAINE?

The $60.8 billion in aid is a little more complex than it sounds. It isn’t all aid to Ukraine in strict terms. $20 billion is to replace what the US Army has taken and already donated. However that can when it comes to items like ammunition for artillery, tanks and bullets for guns, quickly be sent to Ukraine if deemed necessary, under presidential draw down authority.
The remaining $40 billion includes aid for some humanitarian purposes, troop training and payment - just as important as physical aid.
Around $35 billion is available for drawdown of existing military equipment, including M2 Bradley (which has proven to be a pain in Russia’s side), more M-1’s, more M777 artillery, more Palladins, and as many anti-aircraft missiles as the US can supply.
One of the upsides in the delay of providing aid is that there’s already a stock of missiles ready to go. One thing we do know is that ATACMS is now a legal requirement in the bill and more will flow. That could prove to be very significant.
In terms of logistics the US just announced it is sending more advisors to its Embassy in Kyiv to coordinate the secure delivery of new equipment.
Physical transfer can be very quick when it comes to ammunition. For example, the McAlester Army Ammunition Plant in Oklahoma sprawls across 45,000 acres (70 square miles) connected by rail and has a mission to surge as many as 435 shipping containers — each able to carry 15 tons (30,000 pounds) worth of munitions — if ordered by the president in a day.
Much of this will be moved by sea but a great deal will be ferried in by air using the vast military cargo fleet and contracted civilian air freight where needed.
That means ammo can be in Ukrainian hands on the front inside 24-36 hours if it’s necessary.
Allowing for the Senate to pass the bill Tuesday, the President will sign it within an hour and after that, it’s entirely down to how fast aid gets there. My understanding is priorities have been long established and there’s a preferred order for what gets delivered first and what comes later. It just needs the Senate to pass it and a presidential signature.
Finally the tide will start to turn.

Thank you to every American who made this happen.

Slava Ukraini !
 
From "The Analyst":

DANGEROUS DEVELOPMENTS IN KHARKIV

I have often said how ridiculous and short term, attacking Russia over the lengthy uncontested land border in Kharkiv oblast has been. I don’t care what the excuse is, it’s been a bad strategy and done without consistency. These border incursions by supposedly free Russian forces, were inevitably going to draw a Russian reaction. The very reason Ukraine did it was the very reason they should not have, not when you are dealing with an autocratic regime.
If you embarrass or humiliate an autocrat enough, a response inevitably comes. They cannot ignore what amounts to little more than an embarrassing military distraction. It simply can’t go unanswered. You might get away with it once. Twice is pushing it. Three times and you’re going to regret it.
That time has come. Fed up with the incursions the Russians have significantly strengthened the border and begun a long range artillery and missile offensive against Kharkiv. It’s become clear to the Ukrainians they have to strengthen their defences and post more troops into the area - right at the time they can afford to do this least. They don’t have the men or artillery to reinforce this sector.
The Russians however have started to ramp up a dramatic increase in their forces.
Extensive networks of Muron-M surveillance towers have appeared. EW systems and counter battery radar, troop concentrations and all the signs of a potential attack being prepared are everywhere.
So much so, that yesterday the panicked Ukrainians decided to take the initiative with an extensive drone and artillery raid against logistics and intelligence gathering areas over the border. What they destroyed - multiple trucks, intel gathering equipment and preparations for stockpiles and assembly areas in one small sector of the front, should be enough to worry anyone.
Now let’s be clear that it could be just a ploy by the Russians to draw off Ukrainian forces, but I don’t think so.
In the last couple of days Russian recon drones have been active and Lancet FPV attack drones successfully hit Ukrainian Russian built Orugan MLRS preparing to defend Kharkiv. The intensity of their operation is growing.
The Russians see a window of opportunity and they’re going to do something before the long delayed US aid starts to arrive. Their window is short. They don’t have to commit vast resources to attack Kharkiv, just enough to engage substantial Ukrainian forces that Ukraine can ill afford to transfer from other areas. That weakens the areas they really want to take such as Chasiv Yar and it gives them a greater chance of breaking the front around Kupiansk- a long held objective.
These stupid raids over the Russian border achieved nothing but draw attention to both sides having a weak spot when only one has the resources to actually exploit it for real gain. The Russians won’t take or try to take Kharkiv, but they are vicious and destructive. If you think the signalling for this attack hasn’t been there you’d be mistaken. For weeks Russian propaganda has been talking of levelling Kharkiv, erasing it from the surface of the earth both as punishment for resisting and as a cultural and educational centre of a people they don’t consider even exist. Solovyev has been talking repeatedly about it and it’s often discussed on other shows. Nothing like that gets talked about unless the government wants it talked about. This type of signalling - to reinforce a decision that’s already been made, is how Russian propaganda works. They prepare their own people - many of whom will have strong links with a city often considered the most Russian in Ukraine, to accept what they plan to do. Destruction is their aim. Destruction and distraction. Sadly it’s looking more and more likely that what was a dead zone and an almost mutually unspoken agreement to leave this front alone, has been broken. Ukraine has itself to blame and that’s the hardest part of all.
They should never have allowed those raids to draw attention to an area they were just as incapable of defending as the Russians were.I pray I am wrong here, I really do. But all the indicators for weeks suggest otherwise. I suspect this may even have been part of the briefing given to House leadership that convinced them to rush the aid package through.
Even if the Russians are creating an elaborate ruse, Ukraine has no choice but to upgrade its defences and draw off valuable manpower and material because they can’t be sure.
Such is war.

Slava Ukraini !
 
get the fuck in. them fat bastard rockets are coming!

The following is a transcript of an interview with Sen. Mark Warner, Democrat of Virginia, that aired on April 21, 2024.
MARGARET BRENNAN: We begin today with the chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, Mark Warner. Good morning, and good to have you here.

SENATOR MARK WARNER (D-VA): Thank you, Margaret.

MARGARET BRENNAN: So- Senator $61 billion in aid to Ukraine, about 60% of that stays as an investment into the US industrial base, as I understand it. President Zelenskyy said this morning on another network, it's important that they get crucial long range artillery, like attack comms, is that what this money will pay for? And if so, when will they actually get them?

SEN. WARNER: Well,the great news is, this is finally happening. It should have happened six months ago. The next best time is right now, this week. We've seen the Ukrainians overperform. If you step back for a moment and think about the fact that for most of my life, most of America's defense forces were focused on Russia. Now and the last two years, with less than 3% of our defense budget, two years running, with the Ukrainians have eliminated 87% of the Russians pre existing ground forces, 63% of their tanks, 32% of their armored personnel carriers, without a single American soldier lost, because of the courage of the Ukrainians, and the equipment they've received from us, and from our European allies. Getting this additional equipment as quickly as possible- I hope once this gets to the President by Tuesday or Wednesday, that these shipments will be literally launched with that longer range ATACM--

MARGARET BRENNAN

-- By next week?

SEN. WARNER: I hope once the President signs, we've been told that there is it is the President signature, making sure Congress does its job that these materials will be in transit by the end of the week. And on that schedule, what it will do is it's clearly been the case that the Ukrainians morale has been great, but it's been undermined over the last couple of months, when they have been literally given out rationed bullets, eight to 10 bullets a day. And on artillery shells, Russians ten to one, you can't underestimate that Ukrainians' grit, determination, but if they don't have the materials, they can't carry this fight to the Russians.

MARGARET BRENNAN: Will they get those long range artillery?

SEN. WARNER: Yes

MARGARET BRENNAN: Not just ammunition?

SEN. WARNER: The ATACMS- I believe the administration was prepared over the last couple of months to prepare or to provide ATACMS. It is written into this legislation.
 
Great news that the US has decided to back Ukraine. Get those long range weapons taking out the Russian supply lines and infrastructure supplying their front lines ASAP.
 
SEN. WARNER: Well,the great news is, this is finally happening. It should have happened six months ago. The next best time is right now, this week. We've seen the Ukrainians overperform. If you step back for a moment and think about the fact that for most of my life, most of America's defense forces were focused on Russia. Now and the last two years, with less than 3% of our defense budget, two years running, with the Ukrainians have eliminated 87% of the Russians pre existing ground forces, 63% of their tanks, 32% of their armored personnel carriers, without a single American soldier lost, because of the courage of the Ukrainians, and the equipment they've received from us, and from our European allies. Getting this additional equipment as quickly as possible- I hope once this gets to the President by Tuesday or Wednesday, that these shipments will be literally launched with that longer range ATACM--
It does make sense.
 

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