Some assessments of the different fronts, a longish read but the guy gets a lot right. He knew advidka would fall whilst others said it wouldn't.
From "The Analyst":
KNARKIV & LYMAN
1. Kharkiv Front Russian Objective A.
Now I have enough to go on, this is what I think the Russians are doing.
The left side of the river and reservoirs is one attack aimed at reaching a point where the Russians can shell Kharkiv constantly and raise it to the ground. Eventually, some time in the future, they think they will take it. The point is the shelling and to force the Ukrainians to fix in place substantial forces to defend the city.
2. Kharkiv Front Objective B.
The main purpose of the attack is to link up with forces from Kremina. The main reason this has to be true is that any means of them crossing from the right bank of the river to the left in support of the Objective A group - they themselves are destroying, to stop Ukrainian forces crossing to support.
If the objective was supporting the Kharkiv objective they simply wouldn’t do this. This thrust is about crossing the gap to Kremina and meeting up, then they will thrust south down the right bank of the river in an effort to regain all of the land they lost in September 2022.
I believe they think they have sufficient power and mobility left to do this fairly quickly. I suspect they overestimate their capabilities.
What of the other Russian forces deployed further north in the Kursk oblast? Two possibilities- they’re there as a distraction to fix troops but also as reserve to feed the other two offensives.
The other option is that they too move in to Ukrainian territory primarily as a fixing action. Thinning troops for Kharkiv’s defence.
LYMAN
The Russians operate out of Kremina and the Ukrainian out of Lyman. Lyman was a key logistics hub taken back from the Russians in September 2022. The offensive from the north and Kremina is eventually designed to come down from the north and behind Lyman. It’s crucial to any future advance by either side.
Between Lyman and Kremina is the once beautiful Sebrianski forest.
Fighting has raged in the forest since October 2022. Neither side has made any real gains and the forest is artillery shredded stumps of trees.
Both sides work assiduously to undermine the other in this area.
The Russians have moved closer to the river, mostly at Terny but have failed to reach it through the fields despite repeated attempts at doing so. They’re likely to resume trying as the northern offensive gains momentum, as much as distraction. What they want is to cut the means of escape off over the Sherebets river and reservoir to force the Ukrainians to abandon the whole area quickly rather than Russia fight for it.
The forested area is an infantry war. There’s just no room to manoeuvre machinery about.
The front in the forest is largely static with the Russians trying artillery every now and again to dislodge the defenders, then they follow that up with another meat assault.
The Ukrainian best way to stop the Russian advances is to make sure they don’t accumulate enough troops in the trenches to make a move, so they harass the trenches with drone dropped bombs and grenades.
Ukraine uses its longer range artillery to counter the Russian artillery - it’s possibly one of the most attritional sectors of the front over time.
With the Russians largely exhausted here but unmoved, and another offensive underway further north, Ukraine, though outnumbered decided to press its temporary advantage.
They targeted the multiple sites of Russian ammo stockpiles supplying the trenches locally in the forest. As these went up, the unusually dry weather caused the dead undergrowth and trees to catch fire.
The Russian side of the forest was quickly engulfed in thick smoke - and the dry weather meant some Ukrainian areas also caught fire from Russian artillery, but nothing like as bad as in the Russian side which quickly reached a severe level. So much so that the frontlines became untenable.
As the fire subsided the Ukrainians were able to take advantage as the prevailing westerly winds blow the smoke into Russian lines. CONTINUES..
CONTINUES…
With the Russians forced out they claim to have retaken substantial areas - though quite what conditions are like is hard to imagine. If you have ever been in a forest after a fire (we used to get them every couple of years where I grew up), the smell and residual pollution is almost unbearable, a deep acrid odour that penetrates everything. You can’t ignore it. Then there’s the smouldering wood, ash clouds blown up by the wind and more besides.
It’s deeply unpleasant. Only rain brings it to an end - if you can put up with the smell of the ash when it’s damp and dries out. It chokes you and catches in your throat as you breathe.
The gain is the Russians are pissed. They seem to have lost a fair bit of what they gained over a year of fighting in the forest.
Slava Ukraini !
From "The Analyst":
EASTERN FRONT
There’s no question of it, things are not going well. The Russians are maximising every opportunity while the Ukrainians restock. In fact that’s part of the problem. The Russians know that the Ukrainians were so low on ammunition that even if they receive fresh supplies it only sustains their current situation- they don’t get time to stockpile and have reserves. This is where the time American politicians took to get it done is really hitting hard. Right now all that’s happening is the losses and consumption rates are being sustained, but not at a high level. It will take weeks to get over the level Ukraine hasn’t the option to intensify its shelling to change anything. Add to that a new front in the north and things aren’t rapidly improving. It’s like filling a shopping trolley with 5 bottles while someone takes 6 out, until the supply reaches 7 you’re never going to fill the trolley.
The consequences can be seen up and down the map, especially at Chasiv Yar where Russian advances continued. Creeping small gains but gains nonetheless. And as always they don’t care how many men die to make it possible. Their casualty rates are in the 1400-1500 a day band right now, which is shocking.
The equipment loss rate is also varied. Russian losses normally are about 5:1 in Ukraine’s favour. However the situation at present is around 2.5:1 in Ukrainian favour, a ratio that causes concern. However most of that is happening in the north.
Russia seems to think it can operate a combined arms operation in that sector which is putting a great deal of what machinery remains out front, with losses to match.
The news that another 100 Bradley’s are on the way with another 100 M113’s on top of what’s already arriving, will be bad news. The M2 is turning out to be Russia’s nemesis.
Add to that more British Palladins, (the UK will have few left), and the remaining units of the Danish artillery in service, repaired and new M-777’s are also inbound. The French and Swedes are also pushing more units into the fray.
Russia may gain some land but it’s not going to win ultimately.
