From ‘The Analyst’ (Military & Strategic) X: MilStratOnX
DISASTER: RUSSIAN ARMOURED ASSAULT DESTROYED
On the SW front at Korokove, the Russians had failed to breakthrough to the key town of Konstantinivka. This is their main objective overall so they decided to adjust their line of attack.
Over several days, they began assembling what amounts to the largest armoured strike force used so far - indeed I can’t find a record of this many armoured units being used since the opening days of the war.
Russian strategy at this level is to probe for responses, find out what the Ukrainians use in terms of weapons, and just as importantly, how long it takes them to do something about an incoming attack, which often depends on drone observation. Then they look for weak spots and lower reaction times.
Overall the Russians wanted a result, and the Ukrainian forces here were not especially weak at any point.
Now any other commander would have looked for ways to get around a strong defence, not ways to head straight into it. Yet that’s the Russian mentality. You get given an objective and you have to come up with ways of getting to it without going outside your administrative combat area. So the die was cast, an all out massive armoured assault was the only way to go.
Bearing in mind Russia is struggling with armour numbers, tanks are far from plentiful, using 11 with 46 supporting BMP’s is a very substantial force. Add to that 200 assault troops and some 12 fast cross country motorbikes. On top of that they added one of those robot ground support ‘tanks’ which are pretty rare.
The Russians split up the attack into groups headed by a tank with BMP’s following, backed up by the motorbikes.
This time rather than send them in a group at a time as they have in the past, all of the units attacked at once making it far harder for Ukrainian defenders to concentrate their defence.
They planned to cross the open ground and break directly into the south of Konstantinivka.
The area is defended by the respected and experienced Ukrainian 79th Air Assault Brigade.
Remember that the heat has been intense over the last weeks so the ground is bone dry. The Russian units could be seen like coal powered dreadnoughts at Jutland, huge tails of diesel smoke and dust from their tracks kicked up as they made their way to the Ukrainian lines. Drones spotted them immediately.
While the area was well mined, the Ukrainians didn’t think they alone would hold back such a large force so they adapted quickly. Everything they had was thrown at the attack. Kamikaze drones were let loose and artillery strikes called in from behind the lines.
The Russians broke up their column sizes with some having as many as 11 vehicles and some as few as 3, which forces defenders to adapt constantly and pick the greater threat while the lesser threat may sneak past.
The main defence tactic is to pick off the lead vehicle - that deters the others from advancing and may make them turn around. Alternatively they bypass the vehicle and can well end up on mines with further destruction.
The minefield did its work, slowing the attack down so that artillery could more easily pick off the rest.
The defence prevailed - 10 tanks, 11 BMP’s, 12 motorbikes and 77 troops were confirmed killed as the attack was repulsed.
What are the Russians playing at? The longer they keep trying to burn up this much equipment for zero gain, the faster they will run out and be unable to advance at all. There’s a level of desperation and certainly a lack of foresight when it comes to future operations. It’s like they have to get it done now or never. And that fits in with their land grab to bolster a negotiation position later.
Overall a miserable result for the Russians verging on an embarrassment. It shows they don’t get everything they want all of the time- regardless of the seemingly overwhelming forces they try to use.
It also emphasises how a good and well organised experienced defence force can make so much of a difference.
‘The Analyst’
Slava Ukraini !
