From ‘The Analyst’ (Military & Strategic) X: MilStratOnX
RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE PRESSES ON
Despite the emergency in the Kursk area, the Russians are pressing ahead with their attacks everywhere else. The Karakove area was subject to a major outflanking move during Sunday-Monday.
Their aim was to break the defences of Konstantinivka. The failed attack, first from the north then from the southeast, using mobile forces tested the Ukrainians to the limit.
The process the Russians used and the assumptions they made seem to have been their weakness, that along with their utter disregard for casualties.
Their belief was that by attacking hard from the north, largely with infantry, a second attempt at hitting from the southeast as they had done a week or so ago, using exactly the same repetitive assault tactics, would break the Ukrainians. They thought the attack from the north was more than enough to exhaust the defence.
The Russians actually decided not to risk doing anything new. They didn’t want to be bothered with more mine fields so they decided not just to use the same tactics of pulses of APC’s carrying troops escorted by a tank, but to use the exact routes they used before - expecting them to be largely mine free.
By changing the timing of their pulsed attacks to the response times of Ukrainian artillery and drone strikes they actually managed to get through with less damage than they had previously.
However enough hit mines to cause problems, the men who survived found themselves on bone dry soil standing out on dried grass and fields because of the heat that’s beset the region. Any movement kicks up clouds of dust and they were quickly hunted down. The soil is so dry there’s no way to manually dig even a foxhole.
The Russians of course assumed the Ukrainians hadn’t bothered to re-mine the routes they had used in the past - but they had.
Yet again the benefits of the cluster munition 155mm shell proved vital, shredding lightly armoured APC type vehicles and killing infantry.
(As an aside, the effectiveness of cluster munition shells has been so great NATO states are being urged to rescind their membership of the cluster munitions treaty ban. The US never signed it. Nor did Russia).
What has become very clear is that western aid has been critical in balancing out Russian meatwave attacks and ripping through their lightly protected infantry carriers. Without the artillery things would be very bleak. Russian fears that western aid would prove difficult to overcome have been justified - it’s costing them dearly and long may it do so.
The use of FPV drones may not destroy vehicles but it often cripples or disables them forcing crews to abandon them. These days the Russians are so acutely short of tanks and functional APC’s like the MT-LB they actually risk sending in more troops to get them back.
Again, as I have reported previously about this area, it’s wide open, bone dry spaces with little shelter, so these efforts too, end up thwarted.
Overall the Ukrainians managed again to keep the Russians out though several made it through but were destroyed.
The biggest issue is repairing the mine fields which is difficult as it’s hard to hide the mines in dry soil and difficult to map the areas they’ve been detonated. As the minefields weaken, the Russians, if they persist with the meatwave and repeated mechanised assaults, stand more chance of getting through. They know it and that’s why they continue to take the risk and are willing to lose so much doing it.
Yet unquestionably western artillery has made a huge difference. The Czech initiative, the American and European shell supplies are vital and they are making a difference.
‘The Analyst’ MilStratOnX
Slava Ukraini !
