Whilst he won’t do everything he’s said he will do, it won’t be because he has changed his opinion. It will be because it will not be possible. He won’t change in himself. He’ll be there talking complete shit, making stupid threats and delivering the threats that are in his power to do so.
Oh I agree there, but he'll find getting out of NATO (I think that was more a threat to others than an aim) much more difficult, his own military structure will be very difficult to deal with on that one, and NATO will carry on it's support for Ukraine, therefore reluctantly he will.
Others have alluded to it before, but him ending that conflict will massage his ego quite a bit, something I think he'll be more interested in. I think it's very different to Afghan or Syria, where I think the west wanted out more generally.
Afghan had very little strategic significance, once bin ladin/al queda had been broken up, and whilst brutal the taliban don't seem to have much interest outside their own border like they once did (and they probably have bigger internal issues).
The main aim in the conflict in Syria/Iraq was to destroy IS, and that was largely achieved, and they haven't fully pulled away from that aim anyway, they have maintained (as have the UK) a control over it in that region.
I think no matter he says re Ukraine, NATO will continue to support it in various ways, NATO has a lot of elements in it with vested interests, so I'm more optimistic than some for Ukraine.