Russian invasion of Ukraine

[cleavers]

Do you really think the Ukrainian Army who have generally proved incapable or unwilling to go on the offensive (because they aren't prepared to risk the number of casualties required to regain territory), are going to recapture Crimea and large swathes of lost territory in the bitter cold of Winters before Trump takes power and pulls the plug on their military aid?

Dropping "the bridge" would virtually prevent direct resupply (of everything - including food and fuel for those living there), and it's a long vulnerable corridor the other way. Also it was putins pet project, and would be a huge hammer blow to his ego after they spent so much time and money building it, so I'm sure it's still considered a target.

That said, I can't see Ukraine wasting precious missiles in the hope they can take it down. If it is to be taken down, it will likely be from the sea, using one (or more) of the drone ships they've developed, but it would have to be large and probably co-ordinated attack. russia wanted Crimea for use by it's black sea fleet, but they've largely ababdoned it, because the ships were vulnerable to missile attack.

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

Donald Trump getting elected less than a couple of weeks ago changed everything.

Do you really think the Ukrainian Army who have generally proved incapable or unwilling to go on the offensive (because they aren't prepared to risk the number of casualties required to regain territory), are going to recapture Crimea and large swathes of lost territory in the bitter cold of Winters before Trump takes power and pulls the plug on their military aid?

That wasn't really an answer to my question tho was it?

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

Dropping "the bridge" would virtually prevent direct resupply (of everything - including food and fuel for those living there), and it's a long vulnerable corridor the other way. Also it was putins pet project, and would be a huge hammer blow to his ego after they spent so much time and money building it, so I'm sure it's still considered a target.

That said, I can't see Ukraine wasting precious missiles in the hope they can take it down. If it is to be taken down, it will likely be from the sea, using one (or more) of the drone ships they've developed, but it would have to be large and probably co-ordinated attack. russia wanted Crimea for use by it's black sea fleet, but they've largely ababdoned it, because the ships were vulnerable to missile attack.

Bingo, thanks for detailing the above. It's spells it all out nicely.

 

[gordondaviesmoustache]

Donald Trump getting elected less than a couple of weeks ago changed everything.

I agree with this, but we don’t yet know how.

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

I agree with this, but we don’t yet know how.

It doesn't really change the requirement for Ukraine to strengthen its position, it just means it needs to do it ASAP.

 

[gordondaviesmoustache]

It doesn't really change the requirement for Ukraine to strengthen its position, it just means it needs to do it ASAP.

My point is that Trump is unpredictable and guided by his ego, and although unlikely, this may work in Ukraine’s favour (although I’m not holding my breath).

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

Putin and his gang of thugs are full of shite. We have heard all this nonsensical sabre rattling about escalating the conflict before. They completely ignore the fact that this conflict is entirely down to them and they have continually escalated it at every stage. The latest one being getting North Korea to supply more cannon fodder.

If Putin wants to have a go at NATO country, now is the time, as he will get his arse kicked pretty quickly. Let's be honest his much vaunted military is a shambles, he has managed to take 20% of Ukraine in just under 3 years and bankrupted his tin pot country and decimated his owned armed forces in the process. I wouldnt mind betting Poland would wipe the floor with the Russian army on its own. His own generals know this aswell surely.

As for the Nuclear threats, we've heard all these before, Putins a coward and a bully, people like Putin look after number 1 first and foremost and he knows that if he launched nuclear weapons he would be effectively shooting himself with M.A.D.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

They don't have the capability and that is why the Bridge was never taken out besides the relatively minor bombings.

It would require a 1st class army and marine commando capable of mounting an amphibious assault and With precision and speed.

Too slow and they would allow time for Russia to resupply, bed down and bring in reinenforcements or lay booby traps and turn it into a urban warfare nightmare.

Crimea is going to be ceded because it's one of the territories occupied by Russia which Ukraine has the smallest chances of capturing by military means.

You make some reasonable points there.

They just happen to be in direct contradiction of your previous one I replied to!

 

[cleavers]

he has managed to take 20% of Ukraine in just under 3 years and bankrupted his tin pot country and decimated his owned armed forces in the process.

It's actually 10 years not 2 1/2, he already had about 10% before he started this, so the gain v loss is even worse.

 

[mosssideblue]

They don't have the capability and that is why the Bridge was never taken out besides the relatively minor bombings.

It would require a 1st class army and marine commando capable of mounting an amphibious assault and With precision and speed.

Too slow and they would allow time for Russia to resupply, bed down and bring in reinenforcements or lay booby traps and turn it into a urban warfare nightmare.

Crimea is going to be ceded because it's one of the territories occupied by Russia which Ukraine has the smallest chances of capturing by military means.

Taking the bridge out corners any Russian military capability in Crimea