KURSK COUNTER OFFENSIVE!
Posted on January 6, 2025 by The Analyst
It’s been a while since we’ve had a really new operational ground development from Ukraine that could be significant. There’s a lot to unpack so with assistance from the ISW maps, I’ve boiled down the key areas, then a look at new Ukrainian operational combat tactics that have the Russians rattled, and examined the overall strategy. I hope you find it useful.
The Russians had been talking about a 20,000 man Ukrainian counter offensive south of the existing Kursk salient. Yesterday the Ukrainians did launch a counter attack but seemingly inside or immediately adjacent to, the existing salient.
Ukrainian forces resumed offensive operations on January 5, 2025, in at least three areas within the Kursk Oblast salient, achieving tactical advances. Key developments include:
• Berdin-Novosotnitsky Direction (northeast of Sudzha): Ukrainian forces conducted multiple company-sized mechanized assaults in three waves, using a battalion’s worth of armored vehicles. Geolocated footage confirmed advances south and southwest of Berdin, with Ukrainian troops entering the southern part of the settlement.
• Leonidovo and Pushkarnoye (southeast and east of Korenevo): Ukrainian forces intensified operations, including a reinforced platoon-sized mechanized assault near Pushkarnoye. Russian sources reported small infantry group offensives near Nikolskiy and Alexandriya but provided no details on significant gains.
• Other Advances: Ukrainian forces reportedly occupy Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, Martynovka, and Mikhaylovka (northeast of Sudzha) and recently entered Novosotnitsky. They also advanced in fields near Yamskaya Step and Novaya Sorochina.
Russian military bloggers expressed concern that these actions might be diversionary but noted it is too early to determine their strategic significance.
The Russians have a lot of complaints, not least of which is the fact that their drones have been largely rendered useless by Ukrainian EW. However they did have some praise for – and the Ukrainians expressed their own concerns over, fibre-optic thread controlled Russian drones. Ukraine is also using them, but they have range limitations for both sides because of the amount of fibre optic thread required.
Russian and Ukrainian forces engaged in intense combat in Kursk Oblast and surrounding areas on January 5, 2025 beyond the new Ukrainian Offensive.
• Russian Advances: Russian forces advanced southeast of Sudzha, capturing positions in western and southern Makhnovka. Russian airborne (VDV) units reportedly pushed Ukrainian forces out of Makhnovka and Dmitryukov. Some Russian sources suggested these advances occurred earlier. Additionally, Russian troops moved southeast of Makhnovka towards Kurilovka, though these claims lack confirmation.
• Ukrainian Counterattacks: Ukrainian forces intensified assaults near Korenevo and Sudzha. President Zelensky stated that Russian and North Korean forces suffered significant losses near Makhnovka, with up to a battalion of infantry lost on January 3-4.
• Other Operations: Russian forces counterattacked against Ukrainian assaults east of Leonidovo towards Nikolskiy and Malaya Loknya but faced setbacks, including the destruction of mechanized columns in Kursk Oblast. Defense efforts involved elements of the Russian 155th Naval Infantry Brigade (which is largely exhausted again), Chechen Akhmat Spetsnaz, former Wagner personnel, and BARS reserve units.
The situation reflects a dynamic battlefield with ongoing offensives and counteroffensives by both sides.
Drone fibreoptic thread drum. It does prevent a lot of EW interference – mostly to guidance/command and FPV feedback, but it’s not infallible as other parts of the electronics can be overwhelmed.
IMPORTANT NEW UKRAINIAN OPERATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS
One of the key elements that stands out from Russian reports and Ukrainian behavior, is a new version of combined arms operations.
Clearly Ukraine doesn’t have the Air Force capability to be striking the battlefield with air delivered weaponry, but what we do seem to be seeing is an intensified and well coordinated ground forces-missile-drone-EW combined operations running at many levels in a far more coordinated and effective way.
HIMARS is still vital even if reporting and the novelty other use has worn off. they make a huge difference especially inside Kursk.
The EW is suppressing the Russians drone use so effectively that they have no countermeasures (yet) to overcome it, although they usually adapt in time, that’s just the nature of EW. It’s the strength and power of the Ukrainian EW they’re surprised at. How it’s being provided needs to remain classified as long as possible. Ukrainian drones both at tactical and regional level seem to be operating in very effective coordinated ways that are devastating Russian armor, logistics in transit to the frontlines and frontline operations. Above that a regional campaign of missiles and cruise-drones, from HIMARS to ATACMS and new types of mid-range cruise drones, have all been employed to devastating effect. The Russians are very bothered by it, finding it very difficult to operate underneath a whole new development level of Ukrainian low level air dominance.
STRATEGY
Ukraine could clearly see that given time it would lose the Kursk salient, because any way you look at it, it is only about time. The Russians are determined to eliminate the salient – everyone knows that Putin’s orders were to have it done before the next US president takes office two weeks from today, on January 20th.
Ukraine knows that it has a point to prove here – that it isn’t going to give it up as easily as that, and it wants to ensure it still has hold of some territory as a negotiation point. On top of that the fact its taken the Russians and N.Koreans so long now, and their losses are so dramatic, and they still haven’t achieved their objective, isn’t just a monumental embarrassment for the Russians, after all this is their sovereign territory. It makes the military and Putin look weaker and more feeble every day it lasts. And that does matter, more now than ever. I do believe the wheel has turned and anything and everything that can be done to humiliate and weaken Putin at home is of value.
Ukraine also has to make a point to the Americans that their aid can be used to create victories, not just to defend. Ukraine is at the top of an aid wave, just as Russia is in the trough of manpower losses and reduced armor availability. This is the time for Ukraine to act, and demonstrably acting in the one area that hurts the Russians most because they struggle with it so much, drives the point home.
Success also means demonstrating to the next president that Ukraine isn’t dead and buried and that it can and is making the Russians pay – and embarrassing the Russian leadership does matter in such circumstances. We are in the outer periphery of the end game scenario here, what matters now is tenacity, high impact results and a no-backing down approach to Russia.
We know their losses are huge, we know their economy could melt down into a heap any day, at any time. Ukraine is increasingly close to pushing it over the edge – Ukraine has to be the one left standing when the collapse finally comes. I’ve said repeatedly that this war has many similarities to WW1, where appearances are deceptive and the reality on the ground doesn’t show the realities of the situation. The current situation has 1918 written all over it. That started one way – and at no time in January did anyone think the war would be over by mid-November. The allies were planning for 1919 for a major offensive and thought it would be 1920 before they won. That’s how fast things can change when you least expect them – as Syria has and potentially Transnistria is, about to prove.
The Analyst
