My hosest - but not informed sentiment - as a very pro-Ukraine observer - is that Russia isn't in trouble at all and will continue to grind away
The problem of a state lead media and propaganda is defining what "trouble" is. It is designed to give the impression all is well. Chemical Ali etc.
Putin may not lose this war, but he isn't winning either. His country and land isn't under threat.
So you have to class what a win or loss looks like for him.
He wanted less NATO, he has gained more.
He wanted a lasting legacy, that sealed his place in history. He is now a wanted war criminal.
His country's army was once feared. It is now a laughing stock.
He had a stranglehold on Europe with gas supplies. The west no longer relies on Russian gas.
He cannot enjoy the freedom of the world. In fact he cannot even visit his many palaces.
The amount of young men he has sent to die cannot be replaced. This will take decades for Russia to recover
Sanctions are killing him, and finally, the economy is starting to fail. This isn't some personal hope. It is actually happening. He has decimated the Russian economy. All for pride.
Russians will put up with a lot. But deny fresh bread to the older ones and they will turn on him. For the first time, i'm watching videos of people openly calling him a traitor to Russia. This suddenly bravery may spiral out of control.
At the beginning everybody was trying to give him an off ramp. Some sort of face saving solution.
I think they are finally seeing what i said from the start. He only understands one language, and that is force.
Trump will probably give him one solution. If not, all hell may break loose.