Sir Keir Starmer

George Hannah said:
I want to believe this guy - he's a blue after all.
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Yes he is. Believe him if you want, but bear in mind this also:

About 30% of our GDP comes from what we export.

About 45% of what we export in total, we export to Europe.

About 40% of our total exports to Europe are services (the majority financial services, but that's by the by).

The maths is simple: 100 x 30% x 45% x 40% = 5.4%.

So a deal with Europe that does not permit us to offer financial and professional services to them threatens 5.4% of our GDP. As a point of comparison, the 2008 crash is reckoned to have cost us about 6% of our GDP.

What Howard Davies is largely dealing with is the reluctance of people to uproot their families that are settled in London. I understand that entirely, I talk to these people weekly. But no matter how many stay, if we lose our trade in services with Europe jobs in the City will go. Some will go to Europe, others will just go.

So it is crucial that we have a trade deal with Europe that gives us the same access to European markets as we currently enjoy, if we want to avoid another 10 years of austerity.

But that's not happening in a month of Sundays for a whole host of reasons, some of which I've mentioned in my exchanges with Chippy.
 
Chris in London said:
Yes he is. Believe him if you want, but bear in mind this also:

About 30% of our GDP comes from what we export.

About 45% of what we export in total, we export to Europe.

About 40% of our total exports to Europe are services (the majority financial services, but that's by the by).

The maths is simple: 100 x 30% x 45% x 40% = 5.4%.

So a deal with Europe that does not permit us to offer financial and professional services to them threatens 5.4% of our GDP. As a point of comparison, the 2008 crash is reckoned to have cost us about 6% of our GDP.

What Howard Davies is largely dealing with is the reluctance of people to uproot their families that are settled in London. I understand that entirely, I talk to these people weekly. But no matter how many stay, if we lose our trade in services with Europe jobs in the City will go. Some will go to Europe, others will just go.

So it is crucial that we have a trade deal with Europe that gives us the same access to European markets as we currently enjoy, if we want to avoid another 10 years of austerity.

But that's not happening in a month of Sundays for a whole host of reasons, some of which I've mentioned in my exchanges with Chippy.
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I'm assuming you chose your words carefully as before? And that therefore you are fully cognisant of the fact that "theatens 5.4% of our GDP" does not mean we will automatically lose 5.4% of our GDP.

I know nothing of how our financial services industry derives all of its foreign income and what services are "exported" exactly, but I cannot imagine it will all just fall off a cliff on Jan 1st 2021. Some will be lost for sure, I have no issue accepting that, but how much?
 
Chippy_boy said:
I'm assuming you chose your words carefully as before? And that therefore you are fully cognisant of the fact that "theatens 5.4% of our GDP" does not mean we will automatically lose 5.4% of our GDP.

I know nothing of how our financial services industry derives all of its foreign income and what services are "exported" exactly, but I cannot imagine it will all just fall off a cliff on Jan 1st 2021. Some will be lost for sure, I have no issue accepting that, but how much?
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‘Threatens’ is there because I don’t have a crystal ball and don’t know what will happen. So all I can do is say what I think.

I’m pretty sure that we won’t lose all of our services exports to the EU. If you are an Italian company and you sell/buy stuff under an English contract, you will still want advice from English lawyers. If you’re a German company and want your new HQ to be designed by Norman Foster you are still going to sign a contract with Norman Foster associates, not some EU based subsidiary. Not all professional services are financial services.

But it does look like we will lose that part of our financial and professional services market that sells financial services to Europe. (Because we lose the passporting rights that we currently enjoy.) That I suspect will account for probably 4.5% of our total services exports of 5.4%, possibly more. It’s certainly the overwhelming majority of it. And we lose the ability to provide those services to the EU with effect from the end of the transition period.
 
Chippy_boy said:
Just read them. Nothing too alarming in there - what's your point?
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If you think the fact that 60% of large companies in the City are moving some operations abroad because of Brexit and another trillion pounds of assets are also leaving the country isn’t alarming then maybe the fact that tax paid by these companies will be gradually be moving from UK coffers to other countries may alarm you a bit more. Also the fact that the City is falling further behind New York as a financial centre and will no longer be a one stop shop for financial services may also be a cause for concern.

If you meant there’s no cause for concern in the first two paragraphs, that was actually my point. The causes for concern are spelt out in the rest of the article.
 
Chris in London said:
Yes he is. Believe him if you want, but bear in mind this also:

About 30% of our GDP comes from what we export.

About 45% of what we export in total, we export to Europe.

About 40% of our total exports to Europe are services (the majority financial services, but that's by the by).

The maths is simple: 100 x 30% x 45% x 40% = 5.4%.

So a deal with Europe that does not permit us to offer financial and professional services to them threatens 5.4% of our GDP. As a point of comparison, the 2008 crash is reckoned to have cost us about 6% of our GDP.

What Howard Davies is largely dealing with is the reluctance of people to uproot their families that are settled in London. I understand that entirely, I talk to these people weekly. But no matter how many stay, if we lose our trade in services with Europe jobs in the City will go. Some will go to Europe, others will just go.

So it is crucial that we have a trade deal with Europe that gives us the same access to European markets as we currently enjoy, if we want to avoid another 10 years of austerity.

But that's not happening in a month of Sundays for a whole host of reasons, some of which I've mentioned in my exchanges with Chippy.
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Surely it's not all doom and gloom Chris?

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-b...inance-throne-amid-brexit-chaos-idUKKBN1WU0I8
 
Churchlawtonblue said:
Perhaps you should read the article? Or perhaps you have already made up your mind. I guess it's the latter.
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Or perhaps the merest glimpse at the article told me all I needed to know.

Or perhaps you should tell me how much of our GDP we will lose to Brexit as a result of any trade agreement not catering for services
 
west didsblue said:
If you meant there’s no cause for concern in the first two paragraphs, that was actually my point. The causes for concern are spelt out in the rest of the article.
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Yes we were at cross purposes. I thought you meant the dire warnings were in the first two paragraphs.
 
Chris in London said:
Or perhaps the merest glimpse at the article told me all I needed to know.

Or perhaps you should tell me how much of our GDP we will lose to Brexit as a result of any trade agreement not catering for services
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Not counting any chickens but I prefer to wait and see. Need I remind you that several doom laden predictions never occurred after the vote.
 
George Hannah said:
In this season of good cheer maybe the disgruntled remainer rump on here could refrain from celebrating every catastrophic economic prophesy from their ilk as a consequence of Brexit.
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Feel free to explain why you do not think the loss (whether in whole or in part) of our ability to provide financial and professional services to a market that currently accounts for over 5% of our GDP will be a bad thing. Feel free also to explain why such a loss is something to be celebrated by anybody (except financial service providers in Paris and Frankfurt).

And kindly refrain from telling others what they may or may not post, as being told to fuck off can often cause offence.
 
Chris in London said:
Feel free to explain why you do not think the loss (whether in whole or in part) of our ability to provide financial and professional services to a market that currently accounts for over 5% of our GDP will be a bad thing. Feel free also to explain why such a loss is something to be celebrated by anybody (except financial service providers in Paris and Frankfurt).

And kindly refrain from telling others what they may or may not post, as being told to fuck off can often cause offence.
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and a very merry Christmas to you
 
"In the year to June, London has attracted more cross border commercial real estate investment than any other city. It has overtaken New York as destination for fintech investment and it has increased its dominance of the world’s $6.6 trillion daily foreign exchange market."
Chris in London said:
Even at Christmas not every Turkey gets slaughtered.
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I guess you could say that.
 
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