Sturgeon wants another referendum

mcfc1632 said:
Being someone that has spent a lot of time in Scotland in the last couple of years, I am not so sure at all that the SNP is so well set.

Apart from their obsession with Indyref2 I have heard a lot of concerns expressed about their delivery on the rest of the key domestic areas they should also be focussing on. I have definitely picked up views that the SNP are so obsessed with independence they are not applying themselves to the day job.

Also given a lot of people voted Leave and there is a majority in Scotland (according to the polls) that are against Indyref2 - they could in fact be in a much more precarious position than their fan base on here would have you think. They cannot really win anymore seats - they are 'maxed out' and if people that are disappointed with their delivery on domestic issues and those that wish to leave the EU place their votes elsewhere - come June, they may not be sounding so 'triumphant' and demanding as they have been in recent years.

It will be interesting to see what the strength of the rhetoric is like should they lose, lets say 7-10 seats. All this air-time she gets to 'bang the drum' might become more challenging as she gets asked uncomfortable questions rather just given free rein to bang on.
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I live in Scotland and have done for the last 40+ years. I agree with everything you say about their lack of focus on the day job. However Westminster Tories are still disliked by the majority, although personally I have a lot of time for Ruth. Labour are a shambles. This will turn out as a straight fight between two polarised positions. May's 'vote Tory to save the union despite the fact you may completely disagree with almost all of the rest of the manifesto' or Sturgeons ' vote SNP for Scottish independence'. Talk about a rock and a hard place for the Scottish electorate! My gut tells me this will not end well for a pro union Scot.
 
blueparrot said:
They will lose a few seats it's almost impossible to stay at such a high of 56, but even if it is 7 they would still be at a very high number. But the SNP vote is so high because it has defected from labour, so were is it going to go ? Back to Corbyn's labour, doubtful, to the anonymous lib dems again doubtful . All the way over to the Tories unlikely except for a small handful. So where else can the 50 % SNP vote go to ?. Think I'll be staying with the SNP, as an ex labour voter.
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Providing the nats turn out in numbers I cant see them losing many seats. 40% of the vote in a yes/no referendum spells defeat, but 40% of the vote in a 3 party contest spells landlslide. As you say they can only really go down from their 2015 level, but not by much/
 
blueparrot said:
They will lose a few seats it's almost impossible to stay at such a high of 56, but even if it is 7 they would still be at a very high number. But the SNP vote is so high because it has defected from labour, so were is it going to go ? Back to Corbyn's labour, doubtful, to the anonymous lib dems again doubtful . All the way over to the Tories unlikely except for a small handful. So where else can the 50 % SNP vote go to ?. Think I'll be staying with the SNP, as an ex labour voter.
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This is exactly the position. Vote Tory to save the Union or vote SNP for Nationalism. There is little or no other credible choice.
 
Saddleworth2 said:
This is exactly the position. Vote Tory to save the Union or vote SNP for Nationalism. There is little or no other credible choice.
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Don't think so most, like me will vote SNP knowing even if there is a referendum they can vote no same as last time. Unless of course you think there is now a majority that want independence then I suppose you may vote to avoid a referendum. But I wont be voting Tory just to avoid a referendum on independence.
 
CityStu said:
Sturgeon cannot make that promise as she does not and can not have the power to enforce it.

It's like Labour promising a pet unicorn to every little girl in the country. It might win votes and voters may feel that they deserve to receive what they voted for, but granting that promise is outside of the party's power.
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No it's not. However what May has done is given the Scottish electorate a polarised choice. Vote Tory to protect the Union. Vote SNP for Indy ref 2 and Nationalism. Do you think that's a fair question for a Scottish electorate given the complete lack of credible alternative. It will be tantamount to running indyref 2 in June as far as the Nats are concerned. I really cant see anything but a strengthened SNP position that will give more credibility to her request to Indy ref 2. It will also give May wriggle room to agree to it.
 
blueparrot said:
Don't think so most, like me will vote SNP knowing even if there is a referendum they can vote no same as last time. Unless of course you think there is now a majority that want independence then I suppose you may vote to avoid a referendum. But I wont be voting Tory just to avoid a referendum on independence.
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I think the Brexit position and the lack of credible alternatives to a hard line Tory manifesto will move Scotland inevitably towards independence step by step.
 
CityStu said:
Sturgeon cannot make that promise as she does not and can not have the power to enforce it.

It's like Labour promising a pet unicorn to every little girl in the country. It might win votes and voters may feel that they deserve to receive what they voted for, but granting that promise is outside of the party's power.
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Correct. I don't know how many times people have to be told this. We keep hearing about how May 'Can't refuse'
or, 'Will have to,' when the stark fact is that she can and she doesn't. They've had their once in a lifetime referendum
and voted to remain in the UK. Decisions taken by the UK populace,enabled by the UK PM are now being enacted,
and if 1 and a half million of the UK's populace want another go at it because their narrow agenda isn't being addressed,
well I'm afraid that's tough shit.
 
Saddleworth2 said:
I live in Scotland and have done for the last 40+ years. I agree with everything you say about their lack of focus on the day job. However Westminster Tories are still disliked by the majority, although personally I have a lot of time for Ruth. Labour are a shambles. This will turn out as a straight fight between two polarised positions. May's 'vote Tory to save the union despite the fact you may completely disagree with almost all of the rest of the manifesto' or Sturgeons ' vote SNP for Scottish independence'. Talk about a rock and a hard place for the Scottish electorate! My gut tells me this will not end well for a pro union Scot.
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Enjoyed that - really informative.

My experience in Scotland, whilst frequent, is mainly for a few days at time on business so my thoughts are just what I pick up in the office and bars.
 
Saddleworth2 said:
Which area of Scotland mate?
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Generally I do consultancy work for the SG and sometimes for specific agencies, so mainly I stay in hotels around Edinburgh and Glasgow.

Recently I have been doing stuff at Tweedbank and because I have chosen to drive I have stayed in a few places around Melrose and Galashiels - really enjoyed that area especially driving round there in the Autumn.

Although I get to talk to a lot of people, as I am and English guy being paid by the SG I avoid direct talk about 'politics', so my thoughts/views are just what I have 'picked up'.
 
Just dont see how the snp can frame a referendum on oil prices,quote it as once in a generation, lose it but then agitate for another against the wishes of a majority? Sturgeon completely ignores the majority and carries on as if 2014 didnt hapoen. May us correct to say no and whatever the ge outcome that should not change. You saw from the youtube video that she has also ignored the scottish parliament multiple times when it suits her. When will people wake up?
 
mcfc1632 said:
Generally I do consultancy work for the SG and sometimes for specific agencies, so mainly I stay in hotels around Edinburgh and Glasgow.

Recently I have been doing stuff at Tweedbank and because I have chosen to drive I have stayed in a few places around Melrose and Galashiels - really enjoyed that area especially driving round there in the Autumn.

Although I get to talk to a lot of people, as I am and English guy being paid by the SG I avoid direct talk about 'politics', so my thoughts/views are just what I have 'picked up'.
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The Borders is a lovely area. I particularly like Melrose, it's a lovely town. Interestingly, the borders is conservative territory as is central Edinburgh so you may be picking up an anti SNP vibe because of that. The tories made good gains at the last Scottish election so they are by no means a dead duck in Scotland. Ruth Davidson is my favourite politician bar none. She is doing a cracking job although she will have to raise her game even more in the next month or so. I live just South of the capital. It was a resolutely Labour constituency now like many others, SNP.
 
Saddleworth2 said:
The Borders is a lovely area. I particularly like Melrose, it's a lovely town. Interestingly, the borders is conservative territory as is central Edinburgh so you may be picking up an anti SNP vibe because of that. The tories made good gains at the last Scottish election so they are by no means a dead duck in Scotland. Ruth Davidson is my favourite politician bar none. She is doing a cracking job although she will have to raise her game even more in the next month or so. I live just South of the capital. It was a resolutely Labour constituency now like many others, SNP.
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Borders isnt really conservative, maybe in comparison with rest of Scotland it is, but it previously returned Lib dems in the main, Michael Moore, until the last election when it went SNP. That said the collapse of the liberal democrat vote at the last election meant it was the consevatives that ran the SNP closest, it could go conservative this time with tactical voting or liberals could recover here. In other words its anybodies.
Must admit it was shock the SNP won here but it does show the willingness for people to vote SNP yet still be one of the strongest no votes in Scotland the referendum.
 
blueparrot said:
Borders isnt really conservative, maybe in comparison with rest of Scotland it is, but it previously returned Lib dems in the main, Michael Moore, until the last election when it went SNP. That said the collapse of the liberal democrat vote at the last election meant it was the consevatives that ran the SNP closest, it could go conservative this time with tactical voting or liberals could recover here. In other words its anybodies.
Must admit it was shock the SNP won here but it does show the willingness for people to vote SNP yet still be one of the strongest no votes in Scotland the referendum.
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So in the 2016 election did the tories not take ettrick, Dumfries and galloway e.g. The three constituencies on the border?
 
If the Scots did vote to leave what would happen to the armed forces?

I know they want trident out of Faslane but who would defend Scotland? How would they work it out?

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staffs_blue said:
If the Scots did vote to leave what would happen to the armed forces?

I know they want trident out of Faslane but who would defend Scotland? How would they work it out?

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Dont know , but a genuine question, who defends similar sized countries, such as Ireland, Denmark, Belgium ?
 
blueparrot said:
Dont know , but a genuine question, who defends similar sized countries, such as Ireland, Denmark, Belgium ?
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They are NATO members ain't they so I guess other NATO members would. If Scotland wanted to join NATO then they would have to bring something to the table. I would imagine most serving troops would rather stay in a British Armed forces


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staffs_blue said:
They are NATO members ain't they so I guess other NATO members would. If Scotland wanted to join NATO then they would have to bring something to the table. I would imagine most serving troops would rather stay in a British Armed forces


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I thought that I'd read from the first ref. that the actual troops wouldn't get a choice and would have to stay in the British Army? whether they wanted to leave or not, unless they'd finished and could join a Scottish army once they were no longer in the British Army?
 
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