The battle for 4th place

[City_Sean]

And would you have said "we'll win our last five" before Tuesday?

Probably would. Though Newcastle away always had the potential to be a tough game, they're fighting for their lives.

 

[john blue]

Recently updated Odds of Top 4
Arsenal: 94.12%
Us: 77.7%
ManU: 26.7%
West Ham: 5.8%
(Paddy Power and then converted fractional odds to percentages)

Means jack shit. !

 

[MSM]

Means jack shit. !

Actually it means quite a lot.
Bookmakers do this type of thing for a living. The research they put in should not be under estimated.
They are correct far more often than they are wrong. That's why they make a very lot of money.
What they are saying is that in terms of statistical probability we have a far superior chance of finishing in the top 4
than the rags or the irons.
On this occasion let's hope they are once again correct.

 

[sk3ptical]

Probably would. Though Newcastle away always had the potential to be a tough game, they're fighting for their lives.

so is Sunderland but Leicester beat them easily and arsenal will too

 

[BLUEMATT23]

4th won't matter if we win the fecking thing !

3 games lads, 3 games away from heaven and immortality !

After the way we played on Tuesday you seriously think we have a chance of winning the CL?. It's 4th or nothing

 

[BLUEMATT23]

I don't feel optimistic in the slightest.
Arguably tomorrow is more crucial than the Madrid games. But MP will set us up to win or bust for the CL and this will affect our remaining league games.
I can't see how we can win all the remaining games given the stop start season we have had, in fact I'd say it's more or less impossible. Still it will give us more opportunities to win the prem next season and maybe play a lot of EDS in the Europa League.

 

[MSM]

I don't feel optimistic in the slightest.
Arguably tomorrow is more crucial than the Madrid games. But MP will set us up to win or bust for the CL and this will affect our remaining league games.
I can't see how we can win all the remaining games given the stop start season we have had, in fact I'd say it's more or less impossible. Still it will give us more opportunities to win the prem next season and maybe play a lot of EDS in the Europa League.

You can get 10/1 on Stoke winning tomorrow.
Those odds really are over priced.

 

[Omnia Vincit Riot]

You can get 10/1 on Stoke winning tomorrow.
Those odds really are over priced.

I'm often tempted to put a tenner on us losing, that way I'd be slightly less pissed off if I won some money. But then the ugly spectre of a draw raises its head, which would be shit as a point at home to Stoke is crap and I wouldn't win any money either.

Is there any way around this, I don't really understand betting. I just want to soften the blow of another lacklustre slow arsed debacle against a shit team under Pellergrini.

 

[I'm no cynic but...]

I'm often tempted to put a tenner on us losing, that way I'd be slightly less pissed off if I won some money. But then the ugly spectre of a draw raises its head, which would be shit as a point at home to Stoke is crap and I wouldn't win any money either.

Is there any way around this, I don't really understand betting. I just want to soften the blow of another lacklustre slow arsed debacle against a shit team under Pellergrini.

You can also get 5/1 for the draw. Do the maths and back both options, say a fiver on Stoke for the win and a tenner on the draw. Total outlay is £15 and as long as City don't win then you are quids in. Of course City may win and you've lost your money but in the grand scheme of things then this will be the best outcome going. I've done it myself and I just call it 'insurance'.

 

[bert38]

You can also get 5/1 for the draw. Do the maths and back both options, say a fiver on Stoke for the win and a tenner on the draw. Total outlay is £15 and as long as City don't win then you are quids in. Of course City may win and you've lost your money but in the grand scheme of things then this will be the best outcome going. I've done it myself and I just call it 'insurance'.

Just lay City at Betfair if that's what you really want to do.

 

[dublinblue12]

Actually it means quite a lot.
Bookmakers do this type of thing for a living. The research they put in should not be under estimated.
They are correct far more often than they are wrong. That's why they make a very lot of money.
What they are saying is that in terms of statistical probability we have a far superior chance of finishing in the top 4
than the rags or the irons.
On this occasion let's hope they are once again correct.

Bookmakers base their odds on what they believe others, the majority of punters, are thinking, that's how they make their money

 

[I'm no cynic but...]

Just lay City at Betfair if that's what you really want to do.

I was just replying to someone who said he didn't really understand betting so I was just trying to help him to see things clearly. I could have advised him to lay City instead then the arithmetical outcome would have been roughly the same but to someone who doesn't really understand betting, suggesting laying a bet could have seemed like speaking in a foreign tongue.

 

[bert38]

I was just replying to someone who said he didn't really understand betting so I was just trying to help him to see things clearly. I could have advised him to lay City instead then the arithmetical outcome would have been roughly the same but to someone who doesn't really understand betting, suggesting laying a bet could have seemed like speaking in a foreign tongue.

True i guess-fair point.

 

[East Level 2]

Probably would. Though Newcastle away always had the potential to be a tough game, they're fighting for their lives.

Fighting for their lives eh? Could that be because they aren't very good? Two points pissed away; dress it up as you like.

 

[The slaughtered lamb]

Bookmakers base their odds on what they believe others, the majority of punters, are thinking, that's how they make their money

Not always. Sometimes they 'know' the outcome and base their odds on what the majority of punters are thinking. Also a good earner.

 

[bert38]

Not always. Sometimes they 'know' the outcome and base their odds on what the majority of punters are thinking. Also a good earner.

Most bookies struggle to make money and simply follow betfair in their pricing-the days of a bookie actually making their own book have long gone.

 

[The slaughtered lamb]

Most bookies struggle to make money and simply follow betfair in their pricing-the days of a bookie actually making their own book have long gone.

Trust me, the days of no loss accounts have not gone. There's good money based on knowing what will and more often what won't win. Following the wisdom of crowds is still a good guide though.

 

[bert38]

Trust me, the days of no loss accounts have not gone. There's good money based on knowing what will and more often what won't win. Following the wisdom of crowds is still a good guide though.

Be nice if I could get a penny online with any of the major UK firms-but that's a different story

 

[The slaughtered lamb]

Be nice if I could get a penny online with any of the major UK firms-but that's a different story

I can get as much as I like on mate. They seem very accommodating. Haven't had a winner since aintree but that's also another story. ;)

 

[bert38]

I can get as much as I like on mate. They seem very accommodating. Haven't had a winner since aintree but that's also another story. ;)

Ha yeah now Cheltenham was great which is why books have tightened up since-I can only get money down in shops these days..