The Conservative Party

Google the Hong Kong Flu outbreak, nearly every source believes the figure to be 80,000.
Top one is a Lancet article that says 30,000. For original source I found


Table 1, if I read it right (no guarantee), has 29,000 excess deaths from the previous strain in 67/68 and 51,000 from HK flu over two years. That's with no restrictions. We had 50,000 excess deaths in three months last spring, with lockdown.
 
My view is the government didn’t know what to do, our pandemic plan was... well practically nonexistent and they were advised on herd immunity being a strategy that could work. It didn’t and won’t work so 2 weeks later they put us in lockdown.

I actually think the biggest killer early was care homes, that’s what really fucked things up and again they panicked.

I happen to think whoever was voted in would have probably bottled it but that’s not to say it lets them off the hook.

There’s a wider point about decades of neglect towards pandemic response... New Labour came closest with a half baked report on influenza but they still didn’t do nearly enough.

This was always a ticking time bomb and we were always inevitably awaiting another global virus that would do this, they always happen, no matter the century.

Eastern countries have this figured out much better, because they are used to it. The fact no government has ever learned from them and put together a proper procedure, in the event of this happening, is annoying beyond belief

Our pandemic plan was ranked second in the world in terms of preparedness, we were in a much better situation going into it than most of the world.

The key issues were we didn’t follow some of the assumptions in that plan as we changed accountabilities of groups within it without revising it, we didn’t make the decisions required in a timely manner several times (and still aren’t, even just four weeks ago) and we really failed in areas we were perceived to be very good at - track and trace being the key one.

On the PPE side, the NAO has already investigated and said the government didn’t follow their own guidelines for procurement, there’s two public inquiries being run into that so some of that will come out if their findings are true.
 
Our pandemic plan was ranked second in the world in terms of preparedness, we were in a much better situation going into it than most of the world.

The key issues were we didn’t follow some of the assumptions in that plan as we changed accountabilities of groups within it without revising it, we didn’t make the decisions required in a timely manner several times (and still aren’t, even just four weeks ago) and we really failed in areas we were perceived to be very good at - track and trace being the key one.

On the PPE side, the NAO has already investigated and said the government didn’t follow their own guidelines for procurement, there’s two public inquiries being run into that so some of that will come out if their findings are true.
Do you have anything to link on the first part?

I cannot fathom that was the case and have heard the opposite in fact.
 
Top one is a Lancet article that says 30,000. For original source I found


Table 1, if I read it right (no guarantee), has 29,000 excess deaths from the previous strain in 67/68 and 51,000 from HK flu over two years. That's with no restrictions. We had 50,000 excess deaths in three months last spring, with lockdown.
So that’s 80,000, thanks.

Regarding your last line, we’ve already been over the fact the HK was less deadly and less transmissible.

The fact there were less restrictions and less deaths even proves this.
 
They've at times asked for action to be taken sooner.
The opposition has no real power to influence the decisions, it can only suggest alternatives or support. They have done both badly.
So have members of SAGE, and others. There are Tories who are very critical of Boris' handling in the first year. As stated in this forum, Tory MP's like Danny Finkelstein are on record as saying that it is in his nature to 'over-estimate' and think positively, and also that his political style is to leave a decision until the last possible moment. The criticism is that this is great in many scenarios, but very undesirable when dealing with a situation that requires foresight, and is best contained by pro-active and prompt measures, and a pandemic is the perfect example.
Danny Finkelstein is not an MP he is a Tory shill who writes propaganda for the Times. A nice fella but a Tory nonetheless.

Johnson's style has been THE problem, he is lazy, he lacks empathy, he is hopeless at detail and he employs boosterism and rhetoric to try to cover his many shortcomings.
I've backed down on my criticism of him in the last week or so. Last year was a disaster. Constantly giving in to deniers and appeasers, constantly last to act and found to have failed to use advance warnings to prepare, and furthermore being secretive and costing the country by favouring personal contacts for procurement and solutions. Also being unfortunately mealy mouthed and equivocal in delivering important messages.
If last year was a disaster, then this year by that measure has to be at least a catastrophe and at most manslaughter.
I think reality has set in for him. In almost every regard, he has nowhere else to go now.
He could do everyone a favour and resign, admit he is a fat fucking waste of space who is seriously out of his depth.
There are good people around him who can help
You taking the piss?

The people around him are the biggest collection of fools, lunatics and cranks ever assembled in one Government.
, and that's how things will go. I don't expect him to move very much from a moderately firm stance in favour of safety first on most of the issues now facing us.
He hasn't a fucking clue what to do, but it doesn't matter he gets his name on the Eton honours board.
What really hurts is how uncreative and mindless our overall response has been. In particular with unsafe work spaces. Again, Boris is last on the list for people reknown for their attention to detail, or creative, novel solutions. I don't know Labour would have done better but it's hard to imagine a more blunt series of measures than we have seen. Because they are so blunt, we have a situation where major companies can call people in to work who don't need to be on site. Social distancing and other measures are poorly implemented are routinely dismissed as optional by managers. Meanwhile, vulnerable people without bubbles are trapped. Schoolkids, particularly older girls, are now getting mental health problems.
Ah, some reality.
Blunt and often ineffective measures remain. The lack of flexibility in thinking is demonstrated in the schools debate. It's like the only two options are 'open' or 'shut'. If Boris and others in government and SAGE could escape that inflexible mindset, others closer to the educational establishments could surely arrive at intermediate, novel measures that helped tackle the major problems. Half classes. One day a week. Pupil testing. Safer environments. Whatever.
That involves thinking and planning. These are the people who gave a contract to a Ferry company that didn't own any ferries, bought useless PPE from Turkey and generally don't give two fucks about anyone but themselves
But we're looking at Boris not even discussing the issue until the data arrives. Therefore, nothing like that can be discussed. He'll just give the binary thumbs up or thumbs down, and everyone will scramble to implement. We're wasting time and opportunities to deal with this more effectively and smarter because of this way of working.l
They know no other way, there arrogance stops them from thinking there is another way.
Part of the problem is this constant political noise. Let's just say, you won't know what could have been achieved constructively, if the attention is on firefighting, problems coming from chopping and changing and failing to address long standing issues conclusively. They say this is a thing, where people in start to lose the ability to imagine another timeline. Unfortunately, even those close to Boris know this is uncomfortably close to his preferred political style. 'We're all in Boris's world now', one advisor was quoted as saying excitedly, at the start of the year.
You mean the sheep love to flock around Johnson and go BAA!
That is not a good thing. We need freedom from fear and constant barages of dramatic developments.
12 months too late.
They are required so that society's inate capabilities for creativity, hope and mutual appreciation and care can flourish. That side of things will play a large part in determining clinical outcomes for COVID sufferers and others with regard to the mental health of our citizens during and after lockdown.
They don't give a fuck, they know there is an imminent crisis in mental health provision, they are incapable of doing anything about it because that would be admitting responsibility for their litany of mistakes. If they do try to tackle the imminent crisis in mental health provision it will undoubtedly be in the form of outsourcing the services to one of their mates who once run a cats home.

Sumption let the cat out the bag with his references to progressive eugenics.

Fact is they are cunts, Johnson is the biggest **** and the rest are arselicking cunts.
 
Do you know how polls work? They don’t ask every single person, they usually get a sample.

Here, I found it for you. 60% of the forum voted for a party to the left of the Tories. Who themselves are only ideologically right of centre. The forum being right wing is laughable. For context, New Labour’s big win in 1997 got them 43.2% of the vote share, their biggest in history is 48%. So Bluemoon is more pro Labour than Labour’s biggest win in recent history and higher than any of Blair’s big majority wins... and not far off their biggest ever win.

Your box is asking for you back..

View attachment 8897
@blue cigar

Morning mate, just wondering if you ever saw this?
 
Sumption let the cat out the bag with his references to progressive eugenics.

Fact is they are cunts, Johnson is the biggest **** and the rest are arselicking cunts.
I'm the last person to defend a tory, but this whole business with Sumption has been shrill as hell. What he was discussing is a science, health economics, where the exact sort of discussion he was having is used to make financial decisions on medical matters. He's been slaughtered in the Guardian etc. for discussing something that often needs to be included on medical research grant applications.
 
I'm the last person to defend a tory, but this whole business with Sumption has been shrill as hell. What he was discussing is a science, health economics, where the exact sort of discussion he was having is used to make financial decisions on medical matters. He's been slaughtered in the Guardian etc. for discussing something that often needs to be included on medical research grant applications.
That is interesting pal. Could you expand on that mate or PM if you want rather than sidetrack the thread.
 
So that’s 80,000, thanks.

Regarding your last line, we’ve already been over the fact the HK was less deadly and less transmissible.

The fact there were less restrictions and less deaths even proves this.
Just because you find a source that says 80,000 (without citation) it doesn't mean it's accurate (even though it has made it into HMG papers). So far as I can discern from the study, HK flu caused 51,000 excess deaths, and the 80,000 includes an earlier strain - if it helps in this forum, during the winter of the Ballet on Ice.

Feel free to find an alternative source, I was just trying to reconcile different statistics. And I can't anyway remember what point was being made about the 80,000 figure.
 

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