Fairly inevitable unfortunately that they would have to limit the energy price ceiling to 6 months (i.e. the end of this fiscal year) - the scheme presents a potentially unlimited upside risk to gilt issuance in the next fiscal year, so it was a big issue for the market. Even if borrowing remains high and the OBR publishes a slightly higher than expected forecast for next year, greater certainty around that number is better in the market’s eye than a very high level of uncertainty around a slightly lower borrowing figure.
I can only assume that Hunt has been horrified by what he’s seen since he walked through the door last week.
The real dynamite for Truss is the original set of forecasts produced by the OBR delivered to her at the start of her term. If those forecasts showed the need for a material fiscal tightening prior to the mini-Budget, which seems likely - and they still went ahead with unfounded tax cuts - then she really would have to resign, immediately. You could even look at misconduct charges. So we really need those forecasts to be leaked, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they do get leaked if she proves hard to remove.
