The credit crunch...Debt and the federal reserve

kronkonite said:
There appear to be some decent economists here

can you answer this:
If we had joined the euro would we be in as much shit
or would we be spreading the suffering around europe?

Part of the current problem in the UK is the close ties of the FTSE and the FED and in part the effect of dollar rates on the pound. Sterling follows the USD and has been dragged down with it so money moves into other exchanges. The great Indian and Chinese booms have both taken a correction but are now growing again so the money propping up the UK markets is looking for new homes overseas.

Here in Switzerland the banks hit by the credit crunch (realization that a large amount of high risk debt had to be written off) all had enough capital to ride it out and the money moved from high to low risk investment internally. It's a more cautious market by nature here.

The CHF is more closely tied to the EURO than the dollar as thats where most of the trade is so as Sterling has collapsed over the last year the franc has made ground.

There is no recession here.

But it will flow to all markets eventually until we find a way of getting china to spend some of her reserves. They hold more dollar reserves than anyone other than the states! They are now the 4th biggest economy and growing very rapidly again.

If you want to make money in the next few years find something to sell to China otherwise hold tight.
 
I'm a mortgage broker and I'm still busy

Appointments all this week and into next

Me>>>>>8
 
Bigga said:
Not everybody tails off at the same rate, Bernabia.

Uncle has a mega client bank so there are re-mortgages to do all year round to keep us busy
 
Great thread, Bluemoon.

Fair play to those in the know for sharing the knowledge. Being a librarian, I'm not sure how this will affect me, but I've got my bomb shelter well stocked just in case.
 
law74 said:
as with falling property values, rent will also drop (law of supply and demand).

I think that rents are on the increase; also there is a definite housing shortage (which will only worsen with the cessation in the building sector) so the law of supply and demand is one of the few factors working in the property markets favour at the moment.
 
BlackSheep said:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/jul/13/creditcrunch.houseprices

Note the figure - 35% fall. The reason it hasn't yet happened is because (a) people need to pay for HIPs to sell and (b) the availability of first-time buyer "low deposit" mortgages has dried up so no one is moving.

Fantastic stuff. I just hope all this waits long enough for me to get a decent deposit for a house together
 

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