The FTSE

Anyone know what the end game is and how it will pan out?

Feels a bit Ponzi-ish, but I don't really know what I'm talking about.
 
west didsblue said:
Anyone know what the end game is and how it will pan out?

Feels a bit Ponzi-ish, but I don't really know what I'm talking about.
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@SWP's back could probably answer this better but as far as I'm aware there are 2 end games.

Either the retail/WSB crowd hold, refuse to sell, and the price goes up and up until the shorts can no longer afford the interest payments and settle their positions for a ginormous loss, after which GME drops off a cliff.

Or the Hedge funds stick it out, people on the retail/wsb start to get fidgety and sell their shares because the gains they made were decent, and the price goes down, more people panic thinking it's over and sell, the price goes down more and more, the hedge funds start closing out their positions so more people sell, the price probably goes most of the way down to where it was.
 
domalino said:
@SWP's back could probably answer this better but as far as I'm aware there are 2 end games.

Either the retail/WSB crowd hold, refuse to sell, and the price goes up and up until the shorts can no longer afford the interest payments and settle their positions for a ginormous loss, after which GME drops off a cliff.

Or the Hedge funds stick it out, people on the retail/wsb start to get fidgety and sell their shares because the gains they made were decent, and the price goes down, more people panic thinking it's over and sell, the price goes down more and more, the hedge funds start closing out their positions so more people sell, the price probably goes most of the way down to where it was.
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Pretty much that yeah but you’ve got to remember that when the shorts close out their positions, they actually buy (then give back to the broker) the shares. So that stabilises prices (or makes them rise again) and at 129% shorted float, it still means that each and every share still has to be bought 1.3 times.

Usually a stock doesn’t fall off a cliff after a short squeeze. It normally goes really high then drops sharply (but to a still relatively high floor) then would move back to mean over a period of weeks.

Have we seen the actual short squeeze yet? I don’t know. As a somewhat serious investor, it seemed silly to me to hold once I had a paper value 4x that which I invested. But that’s just me and my paper hands. Will I be sad if it hits $1,000-$2,000? Hell no, good luck to anyone that has the balls to stick it out.

JUST PLEASE DON’T INVEST MORE THAN YOU’RE HAPPY TO PART WITH. This is a bloody volatile stock and there are no guarantees.
 
SWP's back said:
I don’t over estimate it and I bet I know a fuck deal more than you as to what the average retail investor thinks is paramount.

I wouldn’t dream of telling you how to land an aircraft, so do me a favour and don’t try to tell me what is more important to retail investors, as I a) have the textbooks on it and b) have literally sat down with thousands of them over the last two decades to have that exact conversation. Around 80% of investors are classed as balanced on the risk bell curve. That’s 40-60% of their portfolio with equity exposure and that exposure reduces with age as a rule.
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I guess you are a bit touchy about people having opinions. Textbooks, you say? Well, what could I possibly say to that?!

If you told me ANYTHING about aviation and I thought you were right, I’d agree. If I thought you were wrong, I’d disagree and tell you why I had my opinion.

Before I went onto to get a BS & MS in Aeronautical Science, I got a BS in Finance, and worked as a Financial Analyst for a Fortune 500 company.

When I became a major airline pilot, my first Union position was as the Retirement & Insurance Representative. I still do work with them occasionally as my best friend took over that position when I moved up to Chairman.

That said, I’ve seen the Schwab analysis of investment portfolios of the 12,000 high income professionals I currently help represent, and I’ve heard more sob stories regarding their lack of sophistication than I can, or would, share. Many are 7 figure portfolios and people with advanced degrees!

As an industry professional yourself, you are seeing your own data, and good for you. Your clientele have self-selected themselves as SOPHISTICATED, because they’ve sought professional help to protect and grow their assets. That self-selection, in and of itself, says something. And, fwiw, over my 25yrs doing this, I’m probably at seeing about 30,000 pilots, so take that for what it’s worth, which appears to be nothing!

Yes, most UNSOPHISTICATED investors will plunk down their money in a Retirement Target Date group of investments, such that their risk trajectory decreases over time. 60/40 is about as unsophisticated as that gets (100- your age is a great cookie cutter approach if nothing else), but whatever helps someone sleep at night is the best investment mix for most. Most of the people with whom I interact usually have at least 3 other retirement income sources, so their stock portfolio can often be considerably less risk averse than most retail
Investors.

My buddy swears by the Permanent Portfolio, because he is pretty set with his $$$ and prefers steady, relatively stable growth in the 6% range. It’s not Treasuries, but it’s not Tesla, either. I think the trajectory of bonds, especially Treasuries are at the end of a long bull market, so the returns on the PP may not be repeatable over the next X number of years due to Fed actions, but that’s my opinion that I shared with him. Believe or not, he already knows how to land planes (he flies the 787), and didn’t take offence. BTW, he does taxes as a side gig, so I tend to listen to him and his ideas, for which he normally provides references.

I’m hope you enjoyed swinging your dick in my general direction, and that it helped you feel good about yourself. Is it cold where you are?

You should always feel free to share any and all opinions with me regarding aviation, but I’ll make sure not to talk money with you, as it appears to be a bit of a touchy subject if one has opinions.

Have a profitable day! I know I am...and I haven’t even had lunch yet!

See, you’re not the only one with dick moves....and before you ask, “freezing with 16 inches on the ground!”

Snow that is!
 
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Wafty Cranker said:
Can’t say I agree with this. Would have been true a while ago, but not anymore.

The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust is now an SEC reporting company. The new CEO at Grayscale has said pension funds and endowments are actively investing in their Crypto funds.
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yeah I know about this, and also Michael Saylor's MSTR - but it doesn't change the fact that BTC has nothing behind it but people's faith.. and if that goes, you know what'll happen - there are plenty of very seasoned market professionals who don't dismiss the possibility of it going to zero (and the vast majority of managed funds cannot and will not put client money into it because the volatility is still way too high.. maybe if BTC is still around in another decade and it's vol is not so high, it could become mainstream, but it's one hell of a risky 'asset' and likely isn't going to be more than a fraction of a single percent for most managers who have the permission and constitution to trade it)
 
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