The FTSE

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ChicagoBlue said:
A bear market and recession are not coincident. Often, the largest gains can be made from the bottom of the recession (middle of the Bear Market) to its exit.

Money looks forward 6-9-12 months ahead, so even by your own 15 month recession, in which people like Larry Fink believe we are already mired, we should be seeing a rebound in the near future.

In short, for anyone not needing their money in the next year to two years max, the U.S. Stock Market is on sale. The only question is whether the “retailer” is going to provide further markdowns for tomorrows buyer?!
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I agree with what i think you are saying in principle that the market prices will lead the actual recovery and you will see an increase before any actual economic recovery. The duration of a bear market by definition is the time taken from the peak to the lowest point and then back to a new all time high.

I guess it depends on your investments as to how you view it, for some they will be drawing down on their portfolios rather than continuing to invest. If that's the case you're only really interested when you get back to where you were before it went to shit. For others who can still buy on the climb back up then yep you want the low which considering markets fall suddenly and then slowly recover that may only be a few months into a bear market.

One thing to consider is that if Trump suddenly starts striking deals the recovery might be a lot sharper than with a tradition bear market. But unless you know the mind of Trump its very difficult to predict.
 
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Kompany Car said:
One thing to consider is that if Trump suddenly starts striking deals the recovery might be a lot sharper than with a tradition bear market. But unless you know the mind of Trump its very difficult to predict.
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He doesn’t have the luxury of waiting for the economy to rebound beyond November 2026!

He’s driving us off a cliff that he hopes will force Powell to lower interest rates. Then, as if by magic, he will point out that he has made deals with XYZ and declare “The tariff war has been won! We have secured $Trillions in new manufacturing facilities and jobs will be flowing back to America in no time flat! Our economy is going to be the envy of the world again overnight and I have Made America Great Again!”
 
Worzel Gummidge#9 said:
23k ouch, it will recover though just might take a while, How old are you if you don’t mind me asking?
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57.

As a rule I wouldn't be concerned, because as you say, the markets usually recover over a period of time. Unfortunately with Trump in charge of America, and taking on the world with HIS tariffs , there is no guarantee of when the markets will recover.

BBC News.

BBC's World Service has been speaking to stockbrokers and traders about what the past few days have been like on the trading floor, following Trump's global tariffs announcement.

In the US, stock trader Steve Burns calls the "speed and the magnitude" of the situation "astounding".

"There were traders that unsubscribed, that left my trading group - they quit and gave up on their trading."

Luca Della Rocca, Head of Trading at Intermonte, in Milan, Italy, describes it as "scenes" you see "quite a lot" in movies.

"It has turned very stressful, I would say more than I was expecting when I started this job," he says, adding they have to try and keep "as cool as possible and not pass stress on to the clients".

In Brisbane, Australia, Jack Strickley - who is a stockbroker at Morgans Financial - says it has been a "busy couple of days" but that communication is "the most important factor" for days like these.


US markets close for daypublished at 21:04
21:04BREAKING​


The markets in the US have closed after another volatile trading day in the shadow of Trump's tariffs.

Stocks rose at opening in New York earlier today, but then there was a drop.

Here's where things stand at closing bell:

  • S&P 500 closed down 1.57%
  • Dow Jones closed down 0.84%
  • Nasdaq closed down 2.15%
 
Let's take a look at how some of the major US tech companies ended the trading day.

Tesla's stocks were down 5.45% at closing, while Apple's shares fell by 5.22%.

Nvidia, another tech giant, had stocks fall 2.01%.

And Amazon's shares were also down 2.88% at closing.

The so-called "magnificent seven" - which is made up of Nvidia, Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Meta, and Tesla - has accounted for a large chunk of the more than $5tn (£3.9tn) the S&P 500 index has lost in value in recent trading sessions, Reuters news agency reported yesterday.
 
IT's OK. The panic is over. Donald is opening clean coal (as he calls it) mines across America.

He stated £2bill is already coming into America everyday because of his tariffs.
 
jrb said:
IT's OK. The panic is over. Donald is opening clean coal (as he calls it) mines across America.

He stated £2bill is already coming into America everyday because of his tariffs.
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At that rate he'll have the 36 trillion dollar debt paid off in no time, well about 50 years doubt Dopey Donald will see just how successful his master plan is.
 
All of this turmoil is going to make it even easier to pass tax reform and cut taxes and regulations, so I’m going to predict a hockey stick recovery! Not quite a V, but pretty close!

From a few minutes ago…

IMG_1058.jpeg

IMG_1059.jpeg
 
jrb said:
IT's OK. The panic is over. Donald is opening clean coal (as he calls it) mines across America.

He stated £2bill is already coming into America everyday because of his tariffs.
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He has no choice if he wants to bring back manufacturing.
You need cheap energy.
Well, you need to be able to offer firms cheap energy at the least so subsidies will likely be a big part of this.
 
Mr Grumpy said:
He has no choice if he wants to bring back manufacturing.
You need cheap energy.
Well, you need to be able to offer firms cheap energy at the least so subsidies will likely be a big part of this.
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Which manufacturing can be brought back in a sensible timescale? Yesterday they were talking about American workers screwing iPhones together!

US energy prices are about half what they are here. Petrol has gone up over the years but from a very low base. THe US still limits oil production to keep prices artificially high to the local market.

I've been trying to think of any product that I use that is produced in the US that is not available from elsewhere or that has a very similar replacement. The only thing I can come up with is the PC operating system (Apple or Microsoft).
 
US stock market futures were positive for a brief moment this morning but have now turned negative once again.

It suggests that share prices on Wall Street will fall further when the US markets open at 2.30pm UK time.

The S&P 500 is on course for a 0.5% decline, the Nasdaq is set for a 0.2% drop, and theDow Jones is set to drop 0.7%.
 
hampshireblue said:
Which manufacturing can be brought back in a sensible timescale? Yesterday they were talking about American workers screwing iPhones together!

US energy prices are about half what they are here. Petrol has gone up over the years but from a very low base. THe US still limits oil production to keep prices artificially high to the local market.

I've been trying to think of any product that I use that is produced in the US that is not available from elsewhere or that has a very similar replacement. The only thing I can come up with is the PC operating system (Apple or Microsoft).
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There is probably a cheaper more efficient operating system out there produced in China. Remember the wake up call the Yanks had when China rolled out a more efficient AI system that wiped large amounts of value off Nvidia. They seem to be underestimating China and what they can do in building things with all their MAGA tub thumping.
 
feedmpenzaandhewillscore said:
There is probably a cheaper more efficient operating system out there produced in China. Remember the wake up call the Yanks had when China rolled out a more efficient AI system that wiped large amounts of value off Nvidia. They seem to be underestimating China and what they can do in building things with all their MAGA tub thumping.
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China won't back down in these tariffs either, they'd happily oppress millions more of their citizens than give in to the US.
 
feedmpenzaandhewillscore said:
There is probably a cheaper more efficient operating system out there produced in China. Remember the wake up call the Yanks had when China rolled out a more efficient AI system that wiped large amounts of value off Nvidia. They seem to be underestimating China and what they can do in building things with all their MAGA tub thumping.
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Linux isn't the costliest alternative.
 
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