The Labour Government

[hampshireblue]

You’re happy to quote the figure as fact, that Brexit has resulted in a conveniently large, round number hit to the fiscal position, but you don’t know anything about the paper, the authors, or the assumptions behind it.

But you still assume it’s correct, and quote it as a fact.

I said:

If only we weren't upto £90bn a year worse off.

Upto is not a fact, it's a range. As in you could win upto £10m on the lottery, not £10m exactly (but it could be)-upto.

You really are a pedantic prick sometimes and despite your BKB tag, not always right.

But here's the opening statement. I'll leave you to challenge the assumptions so you can put your fRW spin on it to justify to yourself that you're in now way to blame for the mess we are in:

This paper examines the impact of the UK's decision to leave the European Union (Brexit) in 2016. Using almost a decade of data since the referendum, we combine simulations based on macro data with estimates derived from micro data collected through our Decision Maker Panel survey. These estimates suggest that by 2025, Brexit had reduced UK GDP by 6% to 8%, with the impact accumulating gradually over time. We estimate that investment was reduced by between 12% and 18%, employment by 3% to 4% and productivity by 3% to 4%. These large negative impacts reflect a combination of elevated uncertainty, reduced demand, diverted management time, and increased misallocation of resources from a protracted Brexit process. Comparing these with contemporary forecasts – providing a rare macro example to complement the burgeoning micro-literature of social science predictions – shows that these forecasts were accurate over a 5-year horizon, but they underestimated the impact over a decade.

 

[Axel Freed]

So go on Einstein - how is your mate Nige going to get them all back into work? Given that the fuckwit is saying workers are being paid too much money, how the fuck is he going to get people off benefits and into work? Is he going to wave a magic wand or hold a gun to their heads?

Well we could stop giving low skilled goons huge pay rises in the form of raising the minimum wage so far and so often which will create more jobs.

Getting all these lazy fuckers off benefits frees up billions of pounds for capital investment in sectors like AI which”ll promote growth and create jobs

 

[hilts]

Apparently a new independent report by a US based organisation. Whatever the real figure, I'm sure we all agree it's substantial and would go a considerable way to alleviating our present woes.

What the NBER gets wrong on the ‘Economic Impact of Brexit’

Sometimes you need to put your computer models down and apply a little common sense!

julianhjessop.substack.com

This is the first thing I came across disputing the number on loss of gdp. He's an independent economist(is anyone?) Who writes for the Telegraph so obviously will be dismissed by remainers. Im not an economist as most arent. So whether people just dismiss it or read it is up to them. People struggle to get past the author and therefore will not entertain anything they write.

But anyhow I look at where we are as a country in Europe compared to Germany and France, they feel like the best countries to compare with. Before brexit during the aftermath and up to 2025 its been Germany a bit better than the UK and the UK a bit better than France. If we have comiited such a large own goal of epic proportions this seems odd. It also doesnt help when previous figures have proved to be wrong. If it was a faulty calculation last time why is this one right or accurate.There is also stats saying we have outperformed countries since brexit but I wouldn't put that down to brexit.

So no we dont all agree and I dont believe never leaving or rejoining would have/will considerably alleviate our problems. That's even before we consider if gdp is a good indicator of a countries well being.

I didn't even vote with the economy as a priority.

Anyhow I judge myself for being dragged into brexit debates:-)

 

[hilts]

Well we could stop giving low skilled goons huge pay rises in the form of raising the minimum wage so far and so often which will create more jobs.

Getting all these lazy fuckers off benefits frees up billions of pounds for capital investment in sectors like AI which”ll promote growth and create jobs

Low paid goons,? wow what a bellend.

 

[BlueHammer85]

Left, Right , centre - all cunts with no clue how ordinary people live.

Except the vast amount of MPs that come from ordinary backgrounds and have worked in ordinary jobs.

 

[Phil1]

Well we could stop giving low skilled goons huge pay rises in the form of raising the minimum wage so far and so often which will create more jobs.

Getting all these lazy fuckers off benefits frees up billions of pounds for capital investment in sectors like AI which”ll promote growth and create jobs

Tell us all you’re a **** without telling us all you’re a ****.
Get yourself a shower, I imagine you need to wash the paint off from painting roundabouts all night.

 

[mosssideblue]

Well we could stop giving low skilled goons huge pay rises in the form of raising the minimum wage so far and so often which will create more jobs.

Getting all these lazy fuckers off benefits frees up billions of pounds for capital investment in sectors like AI which”ll promote growth and create jobs

Care to label some of these jobs

 

[Axel Freed]

Care to label some of these jobs

Jeez man spare the faux outrage it was a throwaway line. Any minimum wage job. They’re paid too much. Aside from economic considerations salary bunching acts as a disincentive to make the sacrifices needed to strive for promotion or a better job elsewhere.

 

[hilts]

One way or another, Brexit has helped fuck the country up even more. I can't understand how some people still can't see this. Sure, it's not the only thing that has impacted us but it's impacted us all the same. And I say that as someone who voted for it!

You know what's fucked this country up more than anything our voting system and continually supporting two parties who along with their members and said supporters put disagreeing with the opposition as a top priority along with policies based on short term populism. Nobody is keen on taking responsibility for their own actions.

So how many people on here continually put their cross in the red or blue corner?

 

[Alan Harper's Tash]

I said:

If only we weren't upto £90bn a year worse off.

Upto is not a fact, it's a range. As in you could win upto £10m on the lottery, not £10m exactly (but it could be)-upto.

You really are a pedantic prick sometimes and despite your BKB tag, not always right.

But here's the opening statement. I'll leave you to challenge the assumptions so you can put your fRW spin on it to justify to yourself that you're in now way to blame for the mess we are in:

This paper examines the impact of the UK's decision to leave the European Union (Brexit) in 2016. Using almost a decade of data since the referendum, we combine simulations based on macro data with estimates derived from micro data collected through our Decision Maker Panel survey. These estimates suggest that by 2025, Brexit had reduced UK GDP by 6% to 8%, with the impact accumulating gradually over time. We estimate that investment was reduced by between 12% and 18%, employment by 3% to 4% and productivity by 3% to 4%. These large negative impacts reflect a combination of elevated uncertainty, reduced demand, diverted management time, and increased misallocation of resources from a protracted Brexit process. Comparing these with contemporary forecasts – providing a rare macro example to complement the burgeoning micro-literature of social science predictions – shows that these forecasts were accurate over a 5-year horizon, but they underestimated the impact over a decade.

 

[hilts]

Jeez man spare the faux outrage it was a throwaway line. Any minimum wage job. They’re paid too much. Aside from economic considerations salary bunching acts as a disincentive to make the sacrifices needed to strive for promotion or a better job elsewhere.

Name some of the jobs that people should be striving to get away from.

 

[Axel Freed]

Name some of the jobs that people should be striving to get away from.

Stewards at City

 

[M18CTID]

You know what's fucked this country up more than anything our voting system and continually supporting two parties who along with their members and said supporters put disagreeing with the opposition as a top priority along with policies based on short term populism. Nobody is keen on taking responsibility for their own actions.

So how many people on here continually put their cross in the red or blue corner?

Well I did say Brexit isn't the only issue!

For the record here is my voting record in the past quarter of a century:

2001 - Labour
2005 - Didn't get to vote as I'd just moved house and even though it was less than half a mile down the road and in the same constituency I had no idea that I had to re-register until it was too late!
2010 - Conservative
2015 - Lib Dem
2017 - Lib Dem
2019 - Scrawled NONE across my ballot paper as none of the main parties filled me with confidence and I was fucked if I was going to vote for Frog Face's Brexit Party. In hindsight I should've voted for your lot as it was unfair to tar them with the same brush as the others
2024 - Labour

 

[M18CTID]

Well we could stop giving low skilled goons huge pay rises in the form of raising the minimum wage so far and so often which will create more jobs.

Getting all these lazy fuckers off benefits frees up billions of pounds for capital investment in sectors like AI which”ll promote growth and create jobs

Yeah, I'm sure sticking low skilled workers on £2.50 an hour will solve those issues!

 

[mosssideblue]

Jeez man spare the faux outrage it was a throwaway line. Any minimum wage job. They’re paid too much. Aside from economic considerations salary bunching acts as a disincentive to make the sacrifices needed to strive for promotion or a better job elsewhere.

No faux outrage, your post was cuntish to say the least, and your response even more so.

You have been sucked in to Farage's ways of working and he is a **** of the highest order

 

[M18CTID]

Jeez man spare the faux outrage it was a throwaway line. Any minimum wage job. They’re paid too much. Aside from economic considerations salary bunching acts as a disincentive to make the sacrifices needed to strive for promotion or a better job elsewhere.

What gives you the fucking right to say they're paid too much? Is this a race to the fucking bottom? Fact is that pretty much everything in this country has rocketed in price over the past few years. Also, have you seen property rental prices recently? How the fuck can someone earning this so-called extortionate minimum wage afford to rent? And yet here you are saying pay them less. Fucking pathetic and straight out of that **** Farage's playbook.

 

[Pingu the Penguin]

I searched the main manifestoes before the last election, and there was scant mention of AI from the main parties, beyond the usual platitudes. There was more mention now in the budget, but again it's still couched in terms of 'leading' but showing little appreciation of what lies just round the corner for everyone. Youth unemployment should already be a flashing light, and major companies around the world are announcing huge lay offs and no longer recruiting to any great extent. Meanwhile, none of the established parties appear imaginative enough to set out a radical vision for now, let alone for the next thirty years.

UBI can’t be far away.

 

[M18CTID]

No faux outrage, your post was cuntish to say the least, and your response even more so.

You have been sucked in to Farage's ways of working and he is a **** of the highest order

Fancy anyone falling for that shit. The daft twat will probably be celebrating if Farage reduced the minimum wage but gave a fuck ton of money to his rich mates in tax breaks

 

[mancityvstoke]

Stewards at City

some are deffo twats

 

[Pingu the Penguin]

Well I did say Brexit isn't the only issue!

For the record here is my voting record in the past quarter of a century:

2001 - Labour
2005 - Didn't get to vote as I'd just moved house and even though it was less than half a mile down the road and in the same constituency I had no idea that I had to re-register until it was too late!
2010 - Conservative
2015 - Lib Dem
2017 - Lib Dem
2019 - Scrawled NONE across my ballot paper as none of the main parties filled me with confidence and I was fucked if I was going to vote for Frog Face's Brexit Party. In hindsight I should've voted for your lot as it was unfair to tar them with the same brush as the others
2024 - Labour

Spookily similar to me (although there was a ronnie the rhino vote in 97)