The Population Problem

[BobKowalski]

Found this article interesting which cites the population problem to be one of depopulation rather than overpopulation. The German decision to let in nearly one million refugees in 2015 sparked widespread alarm, yet they still have a labour shortage, as do we (pandemic aside). The US has an estimated 20 million people with no status propping up the economy. The developed nations need, to put it crudely, bodies. Immigration is in economic terms the importing of raw material, which is turned into production and wealth. Cutting off the supply for nations with low fertility rates is a downward spiral to collapse.

Is this also a sign along the way to demographic change? I read a piece that predicted that 250 million Europeans would be of African descent by the turn of the century and that Southern Med Europe would be the economic heartbeat of Europe as the lines between Europe and Africa blur. African countries becoming more richer, Italy, Spain tapping into that market.

Anyway, thought it would make for an interesting discussion.

‘Falling fertility rates have been a problem in the world’s wealthiest nations – notably in Japan and Germany – for some time. In South Korea last year, birthrates fell to 0.84 per woman, a record low despite extensive government efforts to promote childbearing. From next year, cash bonuses of 2m won (£1,320) will be paid to every couple expecting a child, on top of existing child benefit payments.

The fertility rate is also falling dramatically in England and Wales – from 1.9 children per woman in 2012 to just 1.65 in 2019. Provisional figures from the Office for National Statistics for 2020 suggest it could now be 1.6, which would be the lowest rate since before the second world war. The problem is even more severe in Scotland, where the rate has fallen from 1.67 in 2012 to 1.37 in 2019.’

As birth rates fall, animals prowl in our abandoned 'ghost villages'

Human populations are set to decline in countries from Asia to Europe – and an unusual form of rewilding is taking place

www.theguardian.com

 

[BrianW]

So, contrary to popular opinion, it would be good if more people had 8 kids and if we welcomed immigrants.

Maybe Child Benefit needs to be doubled.

Oh how the Daily Mail will love this!!!

 

[Ban-jani]

This is exactly why I support the new immigration policy. We are short of workers but only in specific sectors and whilst population growth worldwide isn’t a problem anymore, I wouldn’t want to increase it dramatically here, in skill sets not needed, which will inevitably mean building on green sites.

You also have to factor in automation too, and there are many on the left calling for a universal basic salary because of future job losses, perhaps if there are less people, it won’t be as much as a problem?

Regardless, both you and I disagree on this Bob, but I don’t think freedom of movement or an open border policy is necessary at all, even with the population falling. A refined immigration policy that is specific in where we are short, is the way to go, not just numbers for the sake of numbers.

 

[BobKowalski]

This is exactly why I support the new immigration policy. We are short of workers but only in specific sectors and whilst population growth worldwide isn’t a problem anymore, I wouldn’t want to increase it dramatically here, in skill sets not needed, which will inevitably mean building on green sites.

You also have to factor in automation too, and there are many on the left calling for a universal basic salary because of future job losses, perhaps if there are less people, it won’t be as much as a problem?

Regardless, both you and I disagree on this Bob, but I don’t think freedom of movement or an open border policy is necessary at all, even with the population falling. A refined immigration policy that is specific in where we are short, is the way to go, not just numbers for the sake of numbers.

We don’t have an immigration policy that caters for shortfalls in specific sectors, we have an immigration policy based on the type of immigrants we would like to accept, not what we need, which is why it will fail and be overridden based on need. Our proposed immigration policy is an emotional comfort blanket.

The US has around 20 million undocumented workers because that is what the economy needs, it’s just the US cannot admit that, anymore than the EU countries can accept they may benefit from accepting migrants/refugees rather than trying to keep them penned in camps in one or two countries. Politically and emotionally we are not ready to accept this, as evidenced by the reaction to the Merkel decision in 2015.

A future that is more automated, with populations concentrated in smaller areas and UBI? Yeah, I can see that. But I’m not sure it solves the issue of an ageing population that is unable to sustain itself.

 

[The Stockport Iniesta]

I read an article a while ago that stated England (not the UK as a whole) was the most densely populated country in Europe.

 

[hilts]

Yes let’s spread the cancer to prop up GDP.

 

[blueparrot]

Yes let’s spread the cancer to prop up GDP.

What cancer ?

 

[hilts]

What cancer ?

Human beings

 

[Ban-jani]

We don’t have an immigration policy that caters for shortfalls in specific sectors, we have an immigration policy based on the type of immigrants we would like to accept, not what we need, which is why it will fail and be overridden based on need. Our proposed immigration policy is an emotional comfort blanket.

The US has around 20 million undocumented workers because that is what the economy needs, it’s just the US cannot admit that, anymore than the EU countries can accept they may benefit from accepting migrants/refugees rather than trying to keep them penned in camps in one or two countries. Politically and emotionally we are not ready to accept this, as evidenced by the reaction to the Merkel decision in 2015.

A future that is more automated, with populations concentrated in smaller areas and UBI? Yeah, I can see that. But I’m not sure it solves the issue of an ageing population that is unable to sustain itself.

It really does specify our needs. They literally have to have a job waiting for them and fit the criteria that includes specific skills related to that sector, which will be in the ‘jobs shortage’ section.

If we get shortfalls in other areas not in the ‘job shortage’ group then we can simply add them whenever we wish.

It’s flexible and entirely focused to what we need, it’s worked in Canada for years now and they haven’t changed it.

Regarding your 2nd paragraph, the US has a far bigger problem with illegal immigration than the UK does, I don’t even register that as a problem here and I support a more robust and fair refugee programme.

 

[blueparrot]

Human beings

No you’ve lost me.