The Scottish Politics thread

[Saddleworth2]

From reading the Scottish newspapers, there seems to be an undercurrent amongst MPs who are unhappy about the idea. Of course, that is perfectly understandable. After all, if the general election becomes a de facto referendum, then some of those Westminster MPs risk losing their seats.

I think I'm right in saying the SNP have never polled more than 50% in a GE in Scotland so its a brave/foolish move that hints of the desperation caused by having no political or legal route to holding a referendum. I really don't know how it will play out. There are a series of local meetings being held to discuss before the proposition goes before the party later this year. Meanwhile to polls are only going one way.

Here is a link to a recent summary of the independence proposition.

Building A New Scotland: A Stronger Economy — Yes

Independence within the EU offers Scotland a real opportunity to grow our economy and build a fairer society. Here’s how we can do it.

www.yes.scot

meanwhile @KS55 if you could provide the source that says the Barnett formulae will exist after independence I would be interested in seeing it. I have read most stuff but genuinely cant remember seeing that.

 

[Gabriel]

I think I'm right in saying the SNP have never polled more than 50% in a GE in Scotland so its a brave/foolish move that hints of the desperation caused by having no political or legal route to holding a referendum. I really don't know how it will play out. There are a series of local meetings being held to discuss before the proposition goes before the party later this year. Meanwhile to polls are only going one way.

Yes, the SNP had 50% of the votes in 2015, which is a staggering figure, but the subsequent elections were 36.9% and 45%, respectively. It is not impossible for the SNP to breach the 50% figure, since one might reasonably expect the Conservative 25% from 2019 to collapse. However, where a chunk of those votes, say 10%, land will be important. They are just as likely to go to Labour and the Liberal Democrats as they are to Independence supporting parties.

 

[Saddleworth2]

Yes, the SNP had 50% of the votes in 2015, which is a staggering figure, but the subsequent elections were 36.9% and 45%, respectively. It is not impossible for the SNP to breach the 50% figure, since one might reasonably expect the Conservative 25% from 2019 to collapse. However, where a chunk of those votes, say 10%, land will be important. They are just as likely to go to Labour and the Liberal Democrats as they are to Independence supporting parties.

I agree. It feels like a bit of a desperate plan but where else does she go?

 

[Gabriel]

I agree. It feels like a bit of a desperate plan but where else does she go?

I’m assuming we’re using that pronoun for Scotland… ;-)

Desperate plans are best avoided. Labour will likely hold the reins at Westminster in 2025, and while many (including some in Scotland) will fantasise about a return to 1997 and investment everywhere and for all, the reality will be different. Labour will be just as hamstrung by the UK’s pecuniary plight as the Conservatives and be unable to change things dramatically. In my humble, that 50% could yet become 60%, but only when it has been demonstrated that neither the Conservatives nor Labour can make Westminster work in Scotland’s favour. That might not appease those who fret that the moment is now or never, but the Act of Union only came after years of deliberation, some pinpoint 1689 as key, so I think it might be the latter part of this decade before the next referendum and the 2030s before the Union dissolves.

 

[blueparrot]

I’m assuming we’re using that pronoun for Scotland… ;-)

Desperate plans are best avoided. Labour will likely hold the reins at Westminster in 2025, and while many (including some in Scotland) will fantasise about a return to 1997 and investment everywhere and for all, the reality will be different. Labour will be just as hamstrung by the UK’s pecuniary plight as the Conservatives and be unable to change things dramatically. In my humble, that 50% could yet become 60%, but only when it has been demonstrated that neither the Conservatives nor Labour can make Westminster work in Scotland’s favour. That might not appease those who fret that the moment is now or never, but the Act of Union only came after years of deliberation, some pinpoint 1689 as key, so I think it might be the latter part of this decade before the next referendum and the 2030s before the Union dissolves.

Think I agree with that, better to see the lay of the land after the next election, especially if Labour are looking for a partner in government or at least support.
I guess the fear is, somehow the tories winning again and being back where we are now but with no levers left to pull for another 5 years.

 

[Saddleworth2]

I’m assuming we’re using that pronoun for Scotland… ;-)

Desperate plans are best avoided. Labour will likely hold the reins at Westminster in 2025, and while many (including some in Scotland) will fantasise about a return to 1997 and investment everywhere and for all, the reality will be different. Labour will be just as hamstrung by the UK’s pecuniary plight as the Conservatives and be unable to change things dramatically. In my humble, that 50% could yet become 60%, but only when it has been demonstrated that neither the Conservatives nor Labour can make Westminster work in Scotland’s favour. That might not appease those who fret that the moment is now or never, but the Act of Union only came after years of deliberation, some pinpoint 1689 as key, so I think it might be the latter part of this decade before the next referendum and the 2030s before the Union dissolves.

That’s a realistic scenario mate. The next two or three years will be very interesting though.

 

[Saddleworth2]

Think I agree with that, better to see the lay of the land after the next election, especially if Labour are looking for a partner in government or at least support.
I guess the fear is, somehow the tories winning again and being back where we are now but with no levers left to pull for another 5 years.

The nightmare scenario is a Tory win and SNP don’t make whatever target they set for their de facto referendum/GE result.

 

[KS55]

I think I'm right in saying the SNP have never polled more than 50% in a GE in Scotland so its a brave/foolish move that hints of the desperation caused by having no political or legal route to holding a referendum. I really don't know how it will play out. There are a series of local meetings being held to discuss before the proposition goes before the party later this year. Meanwhile to polls are only going one way.

Here is a link to a recent summary of the independence proposition.

Building A New Scotland: A Stronger Economy — Yes

Independence within the EU offers Scotland a real opportunity to grow our economy and build a fairer society. Here’s how we can do it.

www.yes.scot

meanwhile @KS55 if you could provide the source that says the Barnett formulae will exist after independence I would be interested in seeing it. I have read most stuff but genuinely cant remember seeing that.

It was a speech by Sturgeon or an interview some time ago, but I can’t remember the context. Will have a root round.
PS EDIT. The remarks predated the Scottish gov’s paper of October last year.
That paper is very vague on fiscal matters and in several places talks about items being subject to negotiation with UK.
Lots of stuff about process and the benefit of having own fiscal policy but no details about funding. One fact given is that Scotland expects to start with zero debt. The current estimate of Scottish debt is £180bn which would have to be shouldered by UK. Against a position of zero debt Scotland would pay an annual solidarity fee to the UK to help service the Scottish share of the National debt.

 

[Saddleworth2]

It was a speech by Sturgeon or an interview some time ago, but I can’t remember the context. Will have a root round.
PS EDIT. The remarks predated the Scottish gov’s paper of October last year.
That paper is very vague on fiscal matters and in several places talks about items being subject to negotiation with UK.
Lots of stuff about process and the benefit of having own fiscal policy but no details about funding. One fact given is that Scotland expects to start with zero debt. The current estimate of Scottish debt is £180bn which would have to be shouldered by UK. Against a position of zero debt Scotland would pay an annual solidarity fee to the UK to help service the Scottish share of the National debt.

That’s what I recognise too mate. Lots of gaps still.

 

[blueparrot]

It was a speech by Sturgeon or an interview some time ago, but I can’t remember the context. Will have a root round.
PS EDIT. The remarks predated the Scottish gov’s paper of October last year.
That paper is very vague on fiscal matters and in several places talks about items being subject to negotiation with UK.
Lots of stuff about process and the benefit of having own fiscal policy but no details about funding. One fact given is that Scotland expects to start with zero debt. The current estimate of Scottish debt is £180bn which would have to be shouldered by UK. Against a position of zero debt Scotland would pay an annual solidarity fee to the UK to help service the Scottish share of the National debt.

From what I remember she said it wouldn’t be right to start without taking a share of the debt ( though possibly legal ) but it would have to be negotiated against a share of assets too.