The Title Race - 2021/22

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Footy fans are predictable no matter who they support. They will usually down play their own club’s chances of winning while pointing out all the advantages the opposing clubs have.

The panic that united might catch us last season was beyond anything I’ve seen on BM so I’m not at all shocked to see the pattern starting again particularly as Liverpool are actually capable of putting a good run together.

Why does this happen and what is the best way to challenge these thoughts?

I think it’s a defence mechanism in case the worst happens. Saying “I knew this would happen weeks ago and it has” is a comfort blanket against disappointment…except it doesn’t actually work.

There are a few ways to tackle these understandable concerns.

1. Would you swap positions with another club? If not why not?
2. If, given the points advantage we have, Liverpool win it then they probably deserve it.
3. Pep. Honestly.
4. Everyone plays everyone twice at the end.
5. Remember that BM is not a fair reflection of what the truth actually is because we are all biased.

Objectively today we have an 83% chance of winning the league; some calculations have it a bit more others a bit less. Liverpool are about 16% with every other team combined less than 1%.

So yes Liverpool can catch us but it’s not the case that they are the better team and won’t drop any points. They will and so will City.

If you want the season over and City holding up the trophy you are missing out on the journey but if it’s all too much stop watching and tune back in to watch the trophy lift. My bet is you will see a team in Sky Blue yet again and, if it isn’t, we have lots of years to get it back when it all starts again.

Good luck with the mental gymnastics!
 
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citytill1die84 said:
That 12pts will soon be 6 and they could also have a better GD.

4 very winnable fixtures coming up and plenty of goals to be had.

Leicester H
Burnley A
Norwich H
Leeds H

Honestly can't see them dropping many more pts.

Big game in April at the Etihad.
Click to expand...

This pretty interesting table suggest that we've played harder opponents than Liverpool, have easier remaining fixtures, but they have an easier next 4 games than us which might see the gap shrink a bit.

1644486748423.png
 
Cobwebcat said:
Footy fans are predictable no matter who they support. They will usually down play their own club’s chances of winning while pointing out all the advantages the opposing clubs have.

The panic that united might catch us last season was beyond anything I’ve seen on BM so I’m not at all shocked to see the pattern starting again particularly as Liverpool are actually capable of putting a good run together.

Why does this happen and what is the best way to challenge these thoughts?

I think it’s a defence mechanism in case the worst happens. Saying “I knew this would happen weeks ago and it has” is a comfort blanket against disappointment…except it doesn’t actually work.

There are a few ways to tackle these understandable concerns.

1. Would you swap positions with another club? If not why not?
2. If, given the points advantage we have, Liverpool win it then they probably deserve it.
3. Pep. Honestly.
4. Everyone plays everyone twice at the end.
5. Remember that BM is not a fair reflection of what is the truth as we are all biased.

Objectively today we have an 83% chance of winning the league; some calculations have it a bit more others a bit less. Liverpool are about 17% with every other team combined less than 1%.

So yes Liverpool can catch us but it’s not the case that they are the better team and won’t drop any points. They will and so will City.

If you want the season over and City holding up the trophy you are missing out on the journey but if it’s all too much stop watching and tune back in to watch the trophy lift. My bet is you will see a team in Sky Blue yet again and, if it isn’t, we have lots of years to get it back when it all starts again.

Good luck with the mental gymnastics!
Click to expand...

Maybe it’s more to do with Us coming back from some impossible positions to win the league? Has us thinking a team could do it and Liverpool are a very good side who can go on a run of wins!
 
Cobwebcat said:
Footy fans are predictable no matter who they support. They will usually down play their own club’s chances of winning while pointing out all the advantages the opposing clubs have.

The panic that united might catch us last season was beyond anything I’ve seen on BM so I’m not at all shocked to see the pattern starting again particularly as Liverpool are actually capable of putting a good run together.

Why does this happen and what is the best way to challenge these thoughts?

I think it’s a defence mechanism in case the worst happens. Saying “I knew this would happen weeks ago and it has” is a comfort blanket against disappointment…except it doesn’t actually work.

There are a few ways to tackle these understandable concerns.

1. Would you swap positions with another club? If not why not?
2. If, given the points advantage we have, Liverpool win it then they probably deserve it.
3. Pep. Honestly.
4. Everyone plays everyone twice at the end.
5. Remember that BM is not a fair reflection of what is the truth as we are all biased.

Objectively today we have an 83% chance of winning the league; some calculations have it a bit more others a bit less. Liverpool are about 17% with every other team combined less than 1%.

So yes Liverpool can catch us but it’s not the case that they are the better team and won’t drop any points. They will and so will City.

If you want the season over and City holding up the trophy you are missing out on the journey but if it’s all too much stop watching and tune back in to watch the trophy lift. My bet is you will see a team in Sky Blue yet again and, if it isn’t, we have lots of years to get it back when it all starts again.

Good luck with the mental gymnastics!
Click to expand...
Very good points here.
Personally, I do feel it's a bit of a 'defence mechanism' to try to avoid feeling too deflated/ let down.
These days I only get to a handful of games a season tops and haven't seen us lose for a few years . However I always think as I'm going through the turnstiles 'could lose today".
Having gone regularly in the 80s and 90s it is hard to shake off that feeling.
City play some wonderful football at the moment. On Saturday when we went behind I was thinking, 'oh shit, Forest or Boro again '
but ofcourse we equalised straight away. Logically we weren't ever going to lose to Fulham in all honesty.
Even when we are a couple of goals ahead I still think we could blow a 3 goal lead (Bournemouth in 89) or Rags 93 (and a couple of other times too!).
To be honest If you sang 'We never when at home and we never win away' the first time round I think this feeling is just always lurking below the surface!!
 
waspish said:
Maybe it’s more to do with Us coming back from some impossible positions to win the league? Has us thinking a team could do it and Liverpool are a very good side who can go on a run of wins!
Click to expand...

Yes and ironically the fear of losing a big points advantage seems scarier than being a few points behind the leader but is shouldn’t be. It’s best to be where we are.

Just picture Pep’s lovely face smiling or Klopp’s face raging.
 
@domalino I like the table it’s a simplified way of looking at what’s happened before and what might happen in the future all else being equal. It’s sort of how 538 arrive at their end of season table except they use underlying stats too rather than only points with performance being a better predictor than results.

Your table better shows that there is no need to think that, by the end of the season, we will drop any more points than Liverpool will.
 
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