The Title Race - 2021/22

[Brightwell Bros.]

Someone needs to explain to me the obsession over GD. How unlikely would it be for us to be tied with them in points at the end? IF they win, it will be with more points than us, not the same. Just play to win, forget about that

I don't think it will go to GD, but there's a sense that a couple of run ins where gd have been important for City. And if Liverpool and City drop points, it'll likely be only one game and a Liberpool draw and City defeat isn't a wild, impossible prediction.

 

[117 M34]

We’re enormously more likely to win the league now than before we kicked off today. And then, we were enormously more likely to win the league than before we played Brighton.

Game by game their chances evaporate.

It’s the only way I can deal with the pressure, to look at the mathematical probabilities. It’s stacked in our favour.

I like to look at the bookies' odds after we have played to see our odds shortening and theirs drifting.
The bookies rarely get it wrong so it gives me a sense of calm.

 

[Johnny Mars Bar]

69% according to Betfair Exchange are our chances.

Although at one point it was as high as 90%…

I love a good 69

 

[Withnail]

They’ll be staying in there, awful side. Literally have 0 confidence they can get anything.

Long shot I know, but you can hope.
.

 

[K-Bo]

I've got my eye on newcastle away for liverpool to drop points personally, much harder game there then we'll have it at the etihad given their home form.

 

[alexmcity]

We’re enormously more likely to win the league now than before we kicked off today. And then, we were enormously more likely to win the league than before we played Brighton.

I get what you mean, but probabilities haven't changed significantly, let alone *enormously more*. See 538, it's 65:35 City.

Both teams will have more difficult final 5 games than Watford/Everton. Liverpool's are more challenging on paper, because they play Newcastle away just 60 hours after Villarreal and because they visit Villa and Southampton around games vs Spurs and Chelsea.

 

[urban genie]

I think we now have 3 levels of possible points dropping

Very possible if the opposition turn up and play at their best

They play spurs we play Hammers


marginal if either us or them take them lightly

We both play wolves
We both play Villa
We both play Newcastle

not likely unless either of us have an off day

We play leeds, they play Saints

Everton today on recent history, seasons form and sensibility is 3 points for the red scouse, but you can only hope.

 

[Manchester33]

I think we now have 3 levels of possible points dropping

Very possible if the opposition turn up and play at their best

They play spurs we play Hammers


marginal if either us or them take them lightly

We both play wolves
We both play Villa
We both play Newcastle

not likely unless either of us have an off day

We play leeds, they play Saints

Everton today on recent history, seasons form and sensibility is 3 points for the red scouse, but you can only hope.

On paper we should both win all our remaining games, but it doesn’t often work like that.

I don’t know if the CL semis will keep us both honest or tire either of us out.

Exciting times though.

The pressure is on them right now, they need to win 6 games, we need to win 5.

 

[Brightwell Bros.]

On paper we should both win all our remaining games, but it doesn’t often work like that.

I don’t know if the CL semis will keep us both honest or tire either of us out.

Exciting times though.

The pressure is on them right now, they need to win 6 games, we need to win 5.

Pressure also insofar if they lose a game we need to drop points in two games, where even, god forbid, we lose a game we only need them to drop points in one and it's back in our hands.

 

[Cobwebcat]

Premier League Predictions

FiveThirtyEight's Premier League predictions

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

City 92
Liverpool 91

5 left