The Title Race - 2021/22

[alexmcity]

Let's update the probabilities.

We should factor in both the strength of the teams (City and Liverpool), and the fact they'll be more motivated to win than the opposition.

If we give City/Liverpool 90 % chance to win each of their remaining league games, then the chance that they win all 4 games is about 66%.

The chance that both teams won't drop any points is slightly above 40 %.

I'm surprised that Liverpool still look so fresh. They looked much fresher than Newcastle in the 2nd half. It's impressive. Apparently, the fact they avoided strong teams in the CL is helping them big time. City ran nearly 123 km vs Real, Liverpool only 107 vs Villarreal. Huge difference.

But we are hitting form, we scored 16 goals in the last 4 games. Last season we were losing form in April/May. This season we are hitting form at the right time.

 

[Mancity1980]

Let's update the probabilities.

We should factor in both the strength of the teams (City and Liverpool), and the fact they'll be more motivated to win than the opposition.

If we give City/Liverpool 90 % chance to win each of their remaining league games, then the chance that they win all 4 games is about 66%.

The chance that both teams won't drop any points is slightly above 40 %.

I'm surprised that Liverpool still look so fresh. They looked much fresher than Newcastle in the 2nd half. It's impressive. Apparently, the fact they avoided strong teams in the CL is helping them big time. City ran nearly 123 km vs Real, Liverpool only 107 vs Villarreal. Huge difference.

But we are hitting form, we scored 16 goals in the last 4 games. Last season we were losing form in April/May. This season we are hitting form at the right time.

Interesting, so the chances are one team will win all of their games but not both. So whichever team that is wins the league. Liverpool seem fresher at the moment, but City are playing better, City have a harder CL semifinal second leg but Liverpool have a tough FA Cup Final. I think on the balance it will be us, we have a better team, squad and manager, however the fact that Gerrard’s Aston Villa plays both of us does bother me.

 

[bobom]

Let's update the probabilities.

We should factor in both the strength of the teams (City and Liverpool), and the fact they'll be more motivated to win than the opposition.

If we give City/Liverpool 90 % chance to win each of their remaining league games, then the chance that they win all 4 games is about 66%.

The chance that both teams won't drop any points is slightly above 40 %.

I'm surprised that Liverpool still look so fresh. They looked much fresher than Newcastle in the 2nd half. It's impressive. Apparently, the fact they avoided strong teams in the CL is helping them big time. City ran nearly 123 km vs Real, Liverpool only 107 vs Villarreal. Huge difference.

But we are hitting form, we scored 16 goals in the last 4 games. Last season we were losing form in April/May. This season we are hitting form at the right time.

I agree, we seem to be hitting form.

 

[bobom]

Wish they reach the Europa League final, there is a slim chance still

I think either way, we benefit. If they make the final, they will be rest players.

And if they don't get through, they will be gutted from losing out on silverware, and on CL qualification as a result.

I think their match today is really important, too. If they lose today, their task of even making the UEFA league is much harder.

It's impossible to predict but (attempting to predict) in an ideal world they win against Arsenal today (which means that Wolves may not have anything much to play for by the time they play us), and they also get into the final.

 

[der bomber28]

It looks to me like the premier league has got, exactly what Scudamore wanted. IE the lead constantly changing hands, more so since a lot of Liverpools games have been placed miraculously before ours. I might get shot down for this, but I still think they’re trying to “engineer” another Aguero end to the season.

 

[Blu1]

Wish they reach the Europa League final, there is a slim chance still

I’m trying to look at it that even if they go out their confidence will be shot. Lots of physical & mental pressure on them either way

 

[Inter Me Nan]

It looks to me like the premier league has got, exactly what Scudamore wanted. IE the lead constantly changing hands, more so since a lot of Liverpools games have been placed miraculously before ours. I might get shot down for this, but I still think they’re trying to “engineer” another Aguero end to the season.

Lets hope so, 'Bernardooooooooo'.

 

[der bomber28]

Lets hope so, 'Bernardooooooooo'.

Now that would be absolutely epic mate. :)

 

[MCFC1993]

Minor annoyance that we play a day later than them for the next 2 league fixtures. At least with the FA Cup final they will have to sit on being a game behind for half a week.

Their schedule still looks cluttered whereas ours looks quite calm towards the end of the season. Could bode well for the Champions League Final but we need to do everything we can to get there on Wednesday.

City (83 points)​	Liverpool (82 points)​
Wed 4th May - Real Madrid (A) - CL​	Tue 3rd May - Villarreal (A) - CL​
Sun 8th May - Newcastle (H) - PL​	Sat 7th May - Spurs (H) - PL​
Wed 11th May - Wolves (A) - PL​	Tue 10th May - Aston Villa (A) - PL​
Sun 15th May - West Ham (A) - PL​	Sat 14th May - Chelsea (N) - FA Cup​
	Tue 17th May - Southampton (A) - PL​
Sun 22nd May - Aston Villa (H) - PL​	Sun 22nd May - Wolves (H) - PL​
Sat 28th May - Champions League Final​	Sat 28th May - Champions League Final​

 

[Brightwell Bros.]

Signs that Liverpool fans are starting to break under the pressure. (Though of course plenty on here don't handle the pressure either!)